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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 27, 2024 13:58:37 GMT -6
I know its still a ways out there but models have been pretty consistent with a large lingering system over the middle of the country on April 8...that would suck.
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Post by weathermom on Mar 27, 2024 14:06:29 GMT -6
It would be disappointing but I am hoping for the best.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 27, 2024 14:06:34 GMT -6
I know its still a ways out there but models have been pretty consistent with a large lingering system over the middle of the country on April 8...that would suck. Gonna need that system to move a couple days faster. Then we could be bluebird skies on the majority of the path. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 27, 2024 15:20:11 GMT -6
I know its still a ways out there but models have been pretty consistent with a large lingering system over the middle of the country on April 8...that would suck. The trend has been towards a faster ejection than what models show in this timeframe, so hopefully that's the case. The S stream has been fairly progressive lately. |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 27, 2024 16:15:44 GMT -6
We may see the SPC introduce some risk areas Sunday and potentially Monday, but I think there may be too much uncertainty still in the northern extent of the warm sector/front, the potential for junk convection/showers, and the exact track of the surface low to delineate our specific area.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 27, 2024 16:28:22 GMT -6
At 12 days we are a bit beyond the skill of even ensembles to say much about Eclipse Day around here, but right now the EPS and GEFS are showing our area near the inflection point of lower 500mb height anomalies upstream and higher height anomalies downstream. This generally would imply some storminess or a wetter pattern to content with during that period. But it may not pan out that way at all and even if it does that doesn't necessarily mean we are socked in with rain and/or low/mid stratus all day. On the hand even if a dry pattern pans out fair weather cumulous or even just cirrus could be a real buzz kill...
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 27, 2024 16:33:49 GMT -6
I was thinking, the most epic photo ever would be someone capturing the total solar eclipse in the same scene as a distant mothership supercell (bonus would be a tornado).
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 27, 2024 19:38:14 GMT -6
I was thinking, the most epic photo ever would be someone capturing the total solar eclipse in the same scene as a distant mothership supercell (bonus would be a tornado). Plot twist tornado dies because of the eclipse destroying heating and cape |
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Post by dschreib on Mar 27, 2024 20:00:17 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 27, 2024 20:00:27 GMT -6
I was thinking, the most epic photo ever would be someone capturing the total solar eclipse in the same scene as a distant mothership supercell (bonus would be a tornado). Plot twist tornado dies because of the eclipse destroying heating and cape Stupid eclipse |
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Post by jeepers on Mar 28, 2024 0:03:01 GMT -6
I have been in Northern CA due to a sick 93 year old mother since the beginning of March. Watching the weather here is hilarious. It rained a little today. TV met went on and on…only to tell us that the rain total today would be a quarter inch. “And double that by Friday!” 🤣 🤣
Meanwhile, feet of snow in the Sierraa. Do they talk about that? Nope. smdh
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 28, 2024 6:31:05 GMT -6
SPC has the entire area in a 15% risk for Monday  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 28, 2024 8:02:15 GMT -6
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Post by REB on Mar 28, 2024 8:13:17 GMT -6
I have been in Northern CA due to a sick 93 year old mother since the beginning of March. Watching the weather here is hilarious. It rained a little today. TV met went on and on…only to tell us that the rain total today would be a quarter inch. “And double that by Friday!” 🤣 🤣 Meanwhile, feet of snow in the Sierraa. Do they talk about that? Nope. smdh I hope your mom is getting better. |
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Post by yypc on Mar 28, 2024 8:23:17 GMT -6
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Post by jeepers on Mar 28, 2024 9:46:31 GMT -6
Mom is n a holding pattern of not good. Not getting worse, but not good enough to get into a rehab facility.
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Post by REB on Mar 28, 2024 10:09:46 GMT -6
Sister update: The plan is that I won't be running a rehab center at my house starting on Saturday. She is going to try to go home and handle "normal" life. Your continued prayers for all of us are appreciated. This has been tough.
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Post by REB on Mar 28, 2024 10:10:22 GMT -6
Mom is n a holding pattern of not good. Not getting worse, but not good enough to get into a rehab facility. I'll pray for you and your mom |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2024 11:03:19 GMT -6
Latest CSU probability outlook showing moderate/hatched risk across much of MO for next Monday.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 28, 2024 11:47:45 GMT -6
Latest CSU probability outlook showing moderate/hatched risk across much of MO for next Monday. Reed is already posting about this possibly being a tornado outbreak for the area. I haven’t really dug into this setup yet, but it has a good overall look to it. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 28, 2024 12:56:50 GMT -6
Latest CSU probability outlook showing moderate/hatched risk across much of MO for next Monday. Reed is already posting about this possibly being a tornado outbreak for the area. I haven’t really dug into this setup yet, but it has a good overall look to it. Crazy how the hatched is almost perfectly the Ozark plateau |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2024 18:19:03 GMT -6
Looking at today's models, the timing of that trof ejection around the Eclipse is tricky with the -NAO breaking down around then. How quickly that happens, as well as the timing of the trof digging across AK on ~D10 acting as a kicker is still very much in question.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Mar 28, 2024 18:22:40 GMT -6
Felt the little earthquake from Germantown. Shook my windows.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2024 18:30:42 GMT -6
Also of interest besides for the potential severe outbreak is another possible hard freeze and maybe even some flakes with a strong front towards the middle of next week.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 28, 2024 19:42:07 GMT -6
Looking at today's models, the timing of that trof ejection around the Eclipse is tricky with the -NAO breaking down around then. How quickly that happens, as well as the timing of the trof digging across AK on ~D10 acting as a kicker is still very much in question. If we can get that to eject over the weekend and get some post-frontal bluebird skies, that would be amazing. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Mar 28, 2024 19:51:04 GMT -6
Looking at today's models, the timing of that trof ejection around the Eclipse is tricky with the -NAO breaking down around then. How quickly that happens, as well as the timing of the trof digging across AK on ~D10 acting as a kicker is still very much in question. Yeah the ensembles show our area near a trough and ridge aka clouds and a unsettled patten for the solar eclipse. Chris also showed a graphic explaining how it's likely based off climatology that we see clouds on April 8th. Lots of changes in the next 1.5 weeks, but the trends are there! |
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Post by jeepers on Mar 29, 2024 6:48:51 GMT -6
Mom is n a holding pattern of not good. Not getting worse, but not good enough to get into a rehab facility. I'll pray for you and your mom Same here, honey. |
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Post by jeepers on Mar 29, 2024 6:51:41 GMT -6
Sister update: The plan is that I won't be running a rehab center at my house starting on Saturday. She is going to try to go home and handle "normal" life. Your continued prayers for all of us are appreciated. This has been tough. This stuff is indeed a lot. Hope for healing. 💕 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 29, 2024 7:13:38 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 29, 2024 7:30:18 GMT -6
I wonder if the 30% area will bend any more east. Maybe introduce a 45% hatched in the coming updates?
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