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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 7, 2024 8:44:14 GMT -6
***REMNANTS OF BERYL TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE BISTATE AREA*** ***GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY*** Good Sunday morning everyone! It's a day of sunshine, warmer temperatures and somewhat higher humidity today. Temperatures will reach the low to mid-90s this afternoon but the heat index will be only a degree or two higher. In other words... pretty standard early July weather! Enjoy the dry times while we have it! A cold front is trying to punch into our summer airmass from the northwest. This is a slow moving front that will be slowed even further by the arrival of what will soon be Hurricane Beryl into Texas. Our first chance for showers and storms will come with the cold front tonight into Monday. However, as Beryl moves north through Texas it will stop the southward progress of the cold front. Beryle will then follow the front northeast into Missouri and Illinois Tuesday into Wednesday, dramatically enhancing the amount of available moisture and energy for rainfall. Widespread rain and some thunderstorms are likely from Monday night into Tuesday night...and may even linger into Wednesday. The rainfall map I have posted is a "first look" based on some of the early morning model track projections. Please do not take it as gospel (as if anyone ever takes a weather guy's word as gospel). Because of the uncertainty in the exact track, I'm going with a more widespread 2-4 inch band...with some spots of 4+. In reality...there is likely to be a narrow southwest to northeast orientend band of 4-6 inches somewhere in eastern Missouri over into Illinois. But that exact location will be strongly tied to the exact track of the remnants of Beryl... which will be modulated significantly by its interaction with the weak cold/stationary front. The bottomline for rainfall is that we have another heavy rain event on the way. Pretty much everyone should get soaked... it's just a matter of how soaked and how big an impact it may have. Clearly, rainfall amounts like this will bring some (if not all) rivers and creeks up quickly again since they are either just now cresting or have just recently crested. The degree to which those rivers rise and present an impact to travel, commerce, etc., will depend on where the heaviest band of rain sets up. Not to be forgotten is the wind. The remnants of Beryl are forecast to transition from a purely tropical to more of typical mid-lattitude cyclone structure as it's moving through the Bistate area as it interacts with a seasonably strong branch of the jet stream. The overall system may even try and strengthen a bit as it moves through and that presents the potential for gusty winds within the rain Tuesday into Wednesday. I would not be suprised if we end up with some wind gusts of 40-50 mph at times as the center crosses the region late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. If I had to pick a time for the greatest impact from Beryl... it will be from late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.    |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 7, 2024 8:50:53 GMT -6
Here is the potential jet coupling....between the departing jet in the great lakes and the weaker jet in the plains.  Here are the low level winds depicted by the NAM for Tuesday evening.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 7, 2024 8:51:04 GMT -6
I'll go ahead and add the NHC forecast to this thread. It's pretty close to Chris' forecast though so I'm not sure how much value it actually adds except for maybe a zoomed out view.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 7, 2024 8:54:04 GMT -6
BTW...a tip of the cap to the artificial intelligence models for sniffing this out early. They are reported to have about a 12 hour skill advantage over traditional models.
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Post by sgdragons on Jul 7, 2024 9:15:14 GMT -6
I definitely need rain, but the rivers do not. We drove by the STG Marina(what is left), and the river was cooking as the kids say.
Thanks for the update Chris!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 7, 2024 9:42:14 GMT -6
I definitely need rain, but the rivers do not. We drove by the STG Marina(what is left), and the river was cooking as the kids say. Thanks for the update Chris! Haven’t been down there in years since I moved to Perryville but used to go crawfish seining down in the flats. Used to pull up lots of big red ones and have boils! Is that road still passable? I remember it being nearly cracked in half. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 7, 2024 11:49:22 GMT -6
Here is the latest NBM run showing widespread 2-4” across the area from Beryl  |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jul 7, 2024 12:07:23 GMT -6
I am off work this week, and I say bring it! I know the rivers are high, but to me any chance of rain is better that how dry it has been. As long as it's sunny and dry next Saturday, it's all good. My sister and her fiancee are getting married at the Bevo Fest Halle at Anheuser Busch, and to access it we have to ride a trolley. Plus she sprung to have a Clydesdale for an hour, I want pics!
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Post by REB on Jul 7, 2024 12:07:39 GMT -6
Thanks for the new thread. I could use some more rain. Wouldn’t it be nice if we could just get it where we need it.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 7, 2024 16:21:23 GMT -6
Reporting of Beryl has put the historic heat wave in the west on the back burner (understandable). Several all time record highs have been breached.
Redding, CA hit 119 F breaking the previous record of 118 F.
Palm Springs, CA hit 124 F breaking the previous record of 123 F.
Las Vegas, NV hit 119 F (preliminary) 120 F breaking the previous record of 117 F.
Edit: 120 F is the new all time high for Las Vegas.
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Post by sgdragons on Jul 7, 2024 17:19:42 GMT -6
I definitely need rain, but the rivers do not. We drove by the STG Marina(what is left), and the river was cooking as the kids say. Thanks for the update Chris! Haven’t been down there in years since I moved to Perryville but used to go crawfish seining down in the flats. Used to pull up lots of big red ones and have boils! Is that road still passable? I remember it being nearly cracked in half. It’s there but rough. We used to put a boat in there and do a Kaski River run through the lock and dam. It’s a shame somebody can’t buy it out and fix it up again. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 7, 2024 17:57:34 GMT -6
Reporting of Beryl has put the historic heat wave in the west on the back burner (understandable). Several all time record highs have been breached. Redding, CA hit 119 F breaking the previous record of 118 F. Palm Springs, CA hit 124 F breaking the previous record of 123 F. Las Vegas, NV hit 119 F (preliminary) breaking the previous record of 117 F. Las Vegas actually made it to 120° today |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 7, 2024 18:48:49 GMT -6
You know I swear I think I can tell it’s already starting to get dark earlier.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 7, 2024 19:12:52 GMT -6
Looks like I was wrong about Beryl...batten down the hatches
I've really been wrong a lot lately, lol
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 7, 2024 21:30:19 GMT -6
Looks like I was wrong about Beryl...batten down the hatches I've really been wrong a lot lately, lol Hey now! You aren’t wrong yet. You may yet be correct. Weather can do some surprising things at the last minute… especially where tropical systems are involved. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 8, 2024 1:55:09 GMT -6
Reporting of Beryl has put the historic heat wave in the west on the back burner (understandable). Several all time record highs have been breached. Redding, CA hit 119 F breaking the previous record of 118 F. Palm Springs, CA hit 124 F breaking the previous record of 123 F. Las Vegas, NV hit 119 F (preliminary) 120 F breaking the previous record of 117 F. Edit: 120 F is the new all time high for Las Vegas. Not sure if this qualifies for a Darwin Award or just not too bright when it comes to extreme heat |
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 8, 2024 8:35:11 GMT -6
Reporting of Beryl has put the historic heat wave in the west on the back burner (understandable). Several all time record highs have been breached. Redding, CA hit 119 F breaking the previous record of 118 F. Palm Springs, CA hit 124 F breaking the previous record of 123 F. Las Vegas, NV hit 119 F (preliminary) 120 F breaking the previous record of 117 F. Edit: 120 F is the new all time high for Las Vegas. Not sure if this qualifies for a Darwin Award or just not too bright when it comes to extreme heat I heard about that. Apparently another person had to be hospitalized as well. I guess it ain't called Death Valley for nothing. BTW...Death Valley "only" got up to 129 F yesterday. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 8, 2024 8:44:08 GMT -6
The WPC only has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Regardless they are thinking the band of heaviest rain will be slightly south of St. Louis.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 8, 2024 9:13:28 GMT -6
The skirting continues...missed to the N last night and again this morning, missed to the south currently. If I had to guess, most of the rain with Beryl will stay just to my south.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 8, 2024 9:43:42 GMT -6
The WPC only has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Regardless they are thinking the band of heaviest rain will be slightly south of St. Louis. Im surprised more of the area isn't in the flood watch. Most of the guidance this morning seems to be honing in along 44 for the greatest rainfall potential. This is the latest WPC rainfall forecast  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 8, 2024 9:47:17 GMT -6
We'll have to see if the axis of heaviest rain shifts north. The AI models (which have done the best so far) are along I-44. This mornings ICON and now the GFS are slightly further north vs the WPC forecast so we'll see.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 8, 2024 9:59:33 GMT -6
Franklin, Warren, Gasconade and St louis counties are pretty soaked from last week. Any deviation north could be trouble for those areas.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 8, 2024 10:57:10 GMT -6
The WPC only has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Regardless they are thinking the band of heaviest rain will be slightly south of St. Louis. Im surprised more of the area isn't in the flood watch. Most of the guidance this morning seems to be honing in along 44 for the greatest rainfall potential. This is the latest WPC rainfall forecast I thought the same thing. I am NOT jumping all in on the far southeast solution. I'm going to hold with the general 2-4 (similar to the HRRR) which is actually the base for my graphics for this morning. I still think there may be a narrow band of 4-6 somewhere in there. But it may be very narrow...like ten miles wide. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 8, 2024 11:23:09 GMT -6
Not sure if this qualifies for a Darwin Award or just not too bright when it comes to extreme heat I heard about that. Apparently another person had to be hospitalized as well. I guess it ain't called Death Valley for nothing. BTW...Death Valley "only" got up to 129 F yesterday. Only and 129 as opposed to...the surface of the sun.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 8, 2024 11:28:00 GMT -6
The phasing and jet coupling atop a stalled boundary is a concerning setup for excessive rainfall...and it looks like the favored region is co-located with the areas that got the heavy rainfall last week. That spells trouble for flash flood and main stem river flooding.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jul 8, 2024 12:31:03 GMT -6
![]()   I'm just recycling what others have already said here and adding a few other thoughts. It may be July, but the remnants of Beryl phasing with the shortwave trough (ripple in the NW flow) reminds me of forecasting southern winter storms when the Gulf of Mexico is open for moisture supply (advection) transport. The 500mb flow is also very close to going neg tilt near the Bistate area after the NW shortwave phases with the remnants of Beryl! (2nd picture from Tropical Tidbits GEFS 12z July 8th 2024). Lots of healthy lift, moisture, upper level convergence and a slightly strengthening shortwave trough spells heavy rain indeed! (1st picture from Tropical Tidbits GEFS 12z July 8th 2024). There's a chance for severe weather, but the threat is low. Heavy rain and strong gusty N winds on Tuesday (max 25-30 ish mph) will be the story! I would not be surprised if some of the same areas that received 8-10” of rain last week see an additional 4-8” of rain when it's all done early Wednesday. This will lead to higher smaller tributaries, higher crests for the smaller and big rivers. Buckle in, it's going to be another wild weather week! #americasweatherstreamingchannel #weathervalet #Beryl #severeweather #heat #humidity #summer #flooding |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 8, 2024 12:58:53 GMT -6
Looks like a tornado outbreak going on in Beryls right front quadrant
Several deep TDS’s already
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 8, 2024 12:59:57 GMT -6
Several tornado warnings down south from Beryl.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 8, 2024 13:00:13 GMT -6
lol 920. Never fails
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 8, 2024 13:01:25 GMT -6
Looks like a tornado outbreak going on in Beryls right front quadrant Several deep TDS’s already Was coming on here to say that. Multiple on the ground currently. Definitely on the strong side for a tropical system and they seem to be staying down longer. Crazy CC on the Shreveport radar. |
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