|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 25, 2024 14:27:11 GMT -6
Big shift north on the extended HRRR, shpwing the precip shield now getting right on the I44/I70 corridor, but not past it. Still a few counties northward shift. A couple more and we could be in a good spot. Copy and paste this, save it to your clip board in preparation for this winter! |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 25, 2024 14:35:23 GMT -6
She’s actually kind of struggling to maintain organization this afternoon. She's improved quite a bit this afternoon. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 25, 2024 15:09:55 GMT -6
The Upper Level Low hasn't moved as far south as the models showed yesterday and even this morning. In fact it's kinda stalled out over the KY/IL/MO tri-state region and not Arkansas as it was thinking. That's going to mean the rain will shift farther north. ULL is also a bit stronger as well then shown 24 hours ago. This all favors our area for a good soaking for the areas I've mentioned previously and perhaps then some.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 25, 2024 15:13:42 GMT -6
Both NAMs, 3KM and 12KM 18Z runs are a big hit for most of the area with the exception of the far northwest counties of the viewing area. Widespread 1-3" amounts. 12KM NAM shows even higher 2-4" with locally 5" amounts just south of town.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 25, 2024 15:21:19 GMT -6
On the wind front the 18Z 3KM NAM shows gusts reaching 60MPH into the metro-east region of Illinois Friday night as the system is drawn into the ULL. 12KM not too far either and the RGEM is in the 40-50mph gusts zone. Note these are gusts... Not sustained which is likely to be closer to 25-35 mph during the maximum wind stage. Also the system's eye stays intact all the way to Atlanta with 80-100 mph gusts there. Just crazy. If the NAM's projection comes to fruition. It's the NAM so probably over-baked, but still.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 25, 2024 15:23:28 GMT -6
RGEM still too far southeast with the rainshield, but a slight shift northwest from it's last run.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 25, 2024 15:25:19 GMT -6
ICON shifts north by like 150 miles and puts us in the 2-4" QPF zone with up to 7" just to our south.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 25, 2024 15:27:06 GMT -6
Helene starting to show lightning strikes near it's center. We could see some rapid intensification tonight if she can avoid drawing in dry air from the west and north.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 25, 2024 15:41:26 GMT -6
NHC is now forecasting up to 20 feet of storm surge in the big bend area of Florida
I believe that’s the highest they have ever forecasted
|
|
|
|
Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Sept 25, 2024 16:39:57 GMT -6
12Z GFS brings us some hefty winds with 25-35 mph sustained and gusts to 45-55 mph and even approaching 60mph in south/central Illinois Friday night into Saturday early morning as she rotates into the Carbondale area. That's almost Ike 2008 level winds. That was a crazy storm even this far inland. It's like Ike 2.0 but from Florida instead of Texas. Didn’t the remnants of Ike have sustained 45 mph winds around the metro? I lost a big pine tree by the house, luckily it fell away from it. Turned out it was partially rotting inside, but not detectable on the outside. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 25, 2024 17:29:18 GMT -6
Helene is looking pretty healthy after pulling away from Yucatan...expansive anti-cyclonic outflow aloft and the core getting more organized with deep thunderstorms. Looks like rapid intensification is likely the next 24hrs and a big storm at that. Not good for the Big Bend region...
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 25, 2024 17:44:17 GMT -6
Only thing is that this system's wind field is huge which would keep intensity from going through the roof, but what do I know. Hurricane level winds is actually very tiny, but the tropical storm force winds extend for quite a ways. Meanwhile southwestern Mexico is dealing with TS John which already hit once as a hurricane and then slipped back out to sea only to restrengthen and hit again just a bit up the coast as a Hurricane Dumping 30-50" of rain. Geez. Nature's pretty violent right now. SOI values must of crashed last week and were cycling back up again.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 25, 2024 17:50:02 GMT -6
I do wonder with the large circulation and fast forward speed if that will throttle the amount of deepening some but this is reminding me a lot of Ike with it's strength and size. The surge within the forward flank could be catastrophic for sure.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 25, 2024 17:52:40 GMT -6
1st Digital Snow showing up on the CFS (Climate Forecast System) for the 21st and 24th of October... Lock it in!  |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 25, 2024 18:00:30 GMT -6
Well at least Helene will be keeping the heat away. Looking at the monster ridge forming around it, we would be looking at another week of upper 80s to mid 90s if Helene and this upper level low wasn't here. Ridge would be a 594-597DM ridge if all this Fijiawa mess wasn't going on. So there's a bright spot there regardless what happens. Also Models still hinting at more Tropical Troubles from the Gulf of Mexico after the 7th of October into the 15th. Keep an eye out.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 25, 2024 18:21:52 GMT -6
I do wonder with the large circulation and fast forward speed if that will throttle the amount of deepening some but this is reminding me a lot of Ike with its strength and size. The surge within the forward flank could be catastrophic for sure. Helene’s pressure drop has really slowed so I’m not sure we see a high end cat 4 or cat 5 like some of the hurricane models are suggesting. Not really going to matter though. This thing is going to hit Florida and Georgia like a wall of bricks. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 25, 2024 18:28:04 GMT -6
There are major concerns and rightfully so of devastating flooding in the smokies. They’re already under flash flood warnings in many places and it hasn’t even begun yet. The pivot and compression of the system over the mountains is not going to be good.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 25, 2024 18:29:16 GMT -6
I do wonder with the large circulation and fast forward speed if that will throttle the amount of deepening some but this is reminding me a lot of Ike with its strength and size. The surge within the forward flank could be catastrophic for sure. Helene’s pressure drop has really slowed so I’m not sure we see a high end cat 4 or cat 5 like some of the hurricane models are suggesting. Not really going to matter though. This thing is going to hit Florida and Georgia like a wall of bricks. This storm is going to devastate the pine woods of Georgia and surrounding areas. It's a wrecking ball for sure. The wind field as it enters our region could still cause damage locally too. The phasing with the upper low should slow the filling in process and models are showing potential for a ~70kt low/mid-level jet setting up near us. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 25, 2024 21:28:32 GMT -6
Helene is on the verge of exploding. Deep convection is wrapping around the center quickly and an eye is clearly starting flush out. Look out! And no... I didn't get to the new thread yet  |
|
