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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 17, 2024 7:53:02 GMT -6
So what happened to create this event and bust the forecast so badly? Hard to say it was a busted forecast when strong storms and heavy rainfall was expected...I just don't think anyone expected to get 6"+ of rainfall in a couple hours and that was basically impossible to forecast until it was starting to unfold. We knew heavy rain was possible...in fact likely. As COZ said PW's were over 2 inches. The trick was determining with any confidence where storms would fire up and how the mesoscale interactions would evolve to take advantage of that moisture (and instability). The early forecast was for 1-2 inches over a broad area... but with some 2+ likely somewhere. The fact that the short term models were so poorly initializing the first round of storms to our north really knocked down the confidence factor in any of their solutions. And the fact that there were no signs through at least midnight that vigorus convection was going to successfully develop in response to the outflow as it dropped south... seeing as storms had struggled all evening to build west and southwest. I did sexpress concern at 11pm about how we needed to watch the western extent of the outflow boundary... but I was not nearly confident enough given ongoing lack of storms where models said there would be some...to get more specific than the 1-2 with spots of 2+. I did mention Monday my concern about a more robust severe weather potential for Monday, but that was based on a break between AM storms and redevelopment later in the day. What happened with the tornadoes around midday was totally different and one of the strangest and most interesting mesoscale interactions I've seen here in a long time. We had the line up north surge south rapidly and intersected a retreating outflow boundary (or some other northeastward lifting boundary). Both were clearly visible on radar. There was also a westward mobing boundary/gravity wave that was easing west through the metro. When all tree collided there was a nearly simultaneous rapid increase in low level vorticity and the dominant southward penetrating line very rapidly spun up a string of small, robust, QLCS looking spins. It was definitely an event driven entirely by mesoscale interactions. I give the NWS credit for catching it on radar ... even as their attention was on flash flooding! That was some sharp attention to detail! |
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Post by amstilost on Jul 17, 2024 8:43:56 GMT -6
Thanks for that explanation Chris,
I was in a discussion/argument with a family member Sunday afternoon about weather 'manipulation' by humans. I explained my 'cons' using weather models and how they can 'sniff' stuff out 5-6-7 days in advance and then hone in on the event as it gets closer. I went on that,'it would be impossible for a weather model to factor in some independent, 'outside' ability to alter a weather pattern. Then this 'natural manipulation' somewhat 'muddied up' the forecast with all the contributing Mesoscale interactions that went on.
Is there a specific place for information that is trusted that can be looked up to discount weather manipulation or, in my case, prove to me that it exists. I read weather books in grade school in the 60s referring to cloud seeding at that time. I know it has advanced technologically, but some of the stuff that people try and explain/convince to me is a wholesale manipulation of regions and continents. If this is 'out of bounds' one of the mods can please delete it.
I did not get the rain gauge out till after the morning's rain and there was 1.375" in it last evening. Radar estimates peg me around 4"+ but thankfully, again, it was spaced out throughout the morning and not a single continual downpour.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 17, 2024 8:44:49 GMT -6
Interesting pattern setting up next week which looks to drive a steady fetch of moisture up from the GOM. Looks to be driven by an upper level low parked over the Southern Plains. What a weird pattern for mid/late July but I'll take it. Anything we can do to get through the heat of summer is fine by me.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Jul 17, 2024 14:32:52 GMT -6
Special weather statement down at the farm in S Illinois, Vienna, for land spouts and cold air funnels. I can’t say I have seen that before.
...Land spouts and cold air funnels will be possible...
There have been reports of land spouts or cold air funnels today. These funnels are developing underneath showers that have developed along a cold front that is moving south through the region this afternoon. Underneath these showers...spinning columns of air that look like tornadoes may continue to develop. These funnels usually are very brief and weak, and typically do not pose a threat to life or property.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 17, 2024 17:05:54 GMT -6
Last 30 days of precipitation Just a little wet  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jul 17, 2024 18:56:08 GMT -6
Last 30 days of precipitation Just a little wet Same amount of rain in the last 30 days as snow I had last season. |
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Post by dschreib on Jul 18, 2024 6:40:34 GMT -6
A guy in New Mexico bought this telescope off government surplus for 50c/lb. Used it to catch Starliner approaching the ISS.   |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 18, 2024 9:31:34 GMT -6
That's awesome. What does it weigh?
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Post by ElburnDave on Jul 18, 2024 11:43:55 GMT -6
It's not for weighing. It's a telescope. It's for looking at far-away things.
Sorry. Couldn't help myself.
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Post by dschreib on Jul 18, 2024 13:46:00 GMT -6
It's not for weighing. It's a telescope. It's for looking at far-away things. Sorry. Couldn't help myself.  At least three tons. Below is the link to the journey of finding and restoring it.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 18, 2024 14:17:55 GMT -6
This might be one of the most amazing mid-July days in history! It is amazing!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 18, 2024 15:45:26 GMT -6
This might be one of the most amazing mid-July days in history! It is amazing! The wind straight out of the north is a beautiful thing |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 18, 2024 15:47:00 GMT -6
It's not for weighing. It's a telescope. It's for looking at far-away things. Sorry. Couldn't help myself. At least three tons. Below is the link to the journey of finding and restoring it.
Telescope enthusiasts must be a pretty niche hobby. I spent a bunch of time looking at this guy's photographs and reading the story of the telescope. Potentially historic piece of equipment |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 18, 2024 15:47:53 GMT -6
This might be one of the most amazing mid-July days in history! It is amazing! Air is off. Perfect. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jul 18, 2024 15:54:06 GMT -6
We took the kids to Laumeier this afternoon, it's absolutely incredible out.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 19, 2024 8:32:25 GMT -6
Down to 58 this morning at the house. It was/is spectacular!
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 19, 2024 10:27:50 GMT -6
I had 58 as well Chris, this is incredible summer weather.
Sounds like another night in the 50s tonight away from downtown.
Grass is growing faster than it has all season too
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 19, 2024 10:43:28 GMT -6
We are going to pay for this at some point right? Been some hot days but no stretches of crazy heat and the NW flow has been our friend. Getting into the end of July and being able to say that is really something.
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Post by yypc on Jul 19, 2024 13:02:00 GMT -6
We are going to pay for this at some point right? Been some hot days but no stretches of crazy heat and the NW flow has been our friend. Getting into the end of July and being able to say that is really something. Hoping we dont get 100+ with 80+ dewpoint for several days in August like last year. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 19, 2024 13:44:52 GMT -6
We are going to pay for this at some point right? Been some hot days but no stretches of crazy heat and the NW flow has been our friend. Getting into the end of July and being able to say that is really something. Hoping we dont get 100+ with 80+ dewpoint for several days in August like last year. Maybe 80⁰ in December so that we don't have a snowball's chance of a decent snow. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 19, 2024 20:13:48 GMT -6
Maybe this is the opposite of what happened last winter when we didn’t have much of one. This time not much of a Summer.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jul 19, 2024 21:26:22 GMT -6
June had some brutal stretches, I dunno. That would be enough for me, please and thank you.
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Post by amstilost on Jul 20, 2024 6:05:21 GMT -6
Well it is absolutely delightful to see 58° on my remote thermometer this morning. I was hoping to get below the 61 or 62 degrees it was forecast 3 or 4 days ago. I jumped on to see what the record low temperature was for July 20th and it turns out it's 58°, so I figured we might have got pretty close. So I clicked on Jefferson County right by my location in Western Jeffco and it always pulls up a temperature from Sullivan. My first click on it it said 55°. Then I clicked on St Louis to see what St Louis low temperature was and it was 67° at that point. So I jumped on another site where I could see what the actual low was and it was 66° in St Louis this morning for a low. 11° just seems like an awful lot for heat island effect in this chilly of an air mass. Any thoughts on what looks to me like a pretty wild discrepancy?
Edit: Again, what a glorious July morn.
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Post by amstilost on Jul 20, 2024 6:22:14 GMT -6
Was curious what the low for Chesterfield was but I can't find Chesterfield on any of the observational links. So I tried looking at for it in Nowdata and Chesterfield/Smartt wasn't in there either.
I did find data for De Soto and the record low for July 20th was 60° set in 1902.🤔🤔
Edit: Found it. KSUS Chesterfield
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Post by amstilost on Jul 20, 2024 6:32:17 GMT -6
Chesterfield low was 58°. Not sure what their record low for this date was.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jul 20, 2024 11:30:56 GMT -6
Just saw Twisters and thought it was fantastic!
Some clear references to Reed Timmer and El Reno.
Really well done and not the corny 4/10 I expected
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Post by perryville on Jul 20, 2024 13:01:49 GMT -6
  Awesome way to watch Twisters! Was impressed with the movie! Drive in theater south of Cape. imgur.com/a/ll9VQKs |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 20, 2024 16:17:34 GMT -6
Is this haze from the Canadian wild fire smoke?
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Post by REB on Jul 20, 2024 17:17:23 GMT -6
Is this haze from the Canadian wild fire smoke? Warehouse fire in Stl |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 20, 2024 21:12:55 GMT -6
Feel the increase in humidity tonight even though it isn't much.
Overall, great weather for what should be our hottest days. Ac has been off for a couple days
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At least three tons. Below is the link to the journey of finding and restoring it.
