Chris's Corner - Heavy Rain and Gusty Winds from Beryl

Actually it's a relatively new phenomenon compared to all of time. Probably didn't start in earnest until the mechanization of ag and made worse by crop science

I think this was recently discussed but I’m noticing it here now…early onset of leaves changing color it seems. Looks more like mid to late September. Maybe the rapid drought onset?

August is coming to an end, and that means it's time for my Autumn Weather Season 2024 Outlook for the St. Louis Metro and southwestern Illinois:
General Synopsis: Mainly Central Based La Nina is active in the Pacific along with cooler waters off the North American West Coast, while the Atlantic runs well above normal, especially off the southeast coast into the Gulf of Mexico. Down right bathwater down there and that's key to the tropics the next few months, as well as the overall prevailing weather pattern across the globe as well as locally. Speaking of which this usually means a warm and dry Autumn season with any sustained cold arriving closer to the Holidays. Looking at the current and forecasted conditions we could likely be looking at our warmest Fall/Autumn season since records have been kept since the 1880s. Where things diverge is precipitation. Active tropical season that'll be very back-ended and favorable position of the bermuda high most of the season into the eastern US. This means it'll be pretty active and moist at times, but there will be short dry spells as well especially early.

September: This month looks like a carbon copy to August quite honesty. Looks like a quick cool snap to start the month, but warmth and even down right hot weather will dominate, perhaps another cool snap around the 18-25th of the month. 1 or 2 100*F+ days will be possible. Precipitation looks pretty average overall, with tropics likely starting to heat up hurricane wise we could get clipped by a remnant system out of the gulf around the 4-10th of the month, then again towards the end of the month.

TEMPERATURES: Above Average
PRECIPITATION: Near Average (some chance to bust towards above normal)
HIGHEST TEMP: 101*F (@ STL Lambert Airport for all temps)
COOLEST TEMP: 47*F

October: The month is typically when autumn starts to really take hold, but this is not the climate of yesteryear and Summer has started to edge into what was once a traditionally all about Fall Month. The same will hold true this year if almost to a 'T'. Massive anomalous ridging is expected to take hold of much of the eastern 2/3rds of North America. This will mean a very warm to down right balmy October, and with southwest flow dominate the tropical moisture is steered east of our region so this is a very dry flow. Drought is likely to take hold over most of the area. Storm/Rain Chances look poor for most of the month perhaps a cold front towards the end of October will break the pattern. Maybe only 1 to 2 shots of storms/rain. Early Frost and Freeze is highly unlikely this year.

TEMPERATURES: Much Above Average (Perhaps Record-Breaking)
PRECIPITATION: Below to Much Below Average on what's normally a dry month.
HIGHEST TEMP: 92*F
COOLEST TEMP: 41*F

November: This month is usually when Autumn has long taken hold and the first wisps of Winter begin to make themselves apparent. However, the current pattern that's in place however will be tough to break. The cold front from the end of October will be a fleeting shot of chill before another warm up takes hold a few days into the month lasting till at least Veteran's Day before the pattern starts to finally breakdown/shift. We should finally get our first widespread frost or quite possibly a freeze around mid month. The cold won't fully settle in however, and the warmth will try to fight back, bringing the 'second severe season' into play. Thinking 1 to 2 rounds of violent storms is possible with short but stout cold snaps behind them. Things will get quite active mid to late month. As for snow... It can snow in November and has recently the last 2 Novembers both 2022 and 2023. Will we be adding 2024 to the list? Hard to say but my gut is leaning towards a negative, but there's always a surprise, so I can't say 0% chance.

TEMPERATURES: Above Average
PRECIPITATION: Average to Slightly Above Average
HIGHEST TEMP: 83*F
COOLEST TEMP: 27*F

Sneak Peak into December looks rather mild and active especially the first couple weeks of the month, with rather limited cold weather throughout. Snow chances look quite limited as well a trend that will hold into most of the upcoming Winter, but that's for the next Seasonal Long Range Outlook.

I had never heard of corn sweat until it was brought up in this forum 10 or 15 years ago.

And sunrise on Saturday is at 630 am.

Cumulus towers and already some storms popping down this way. Hopefully will get some rain!

Can you take the truck through a few more times?

If I'd have known it would work, I'd have washed it weeks ago! 🙂

Everything looks northwest of 44/70.

That 80% chance of "heavy rain" is looking like a big fat nothingburger IMBY...sure glad we managed to get that half inch the other day

Have thunder off and on for awhile now but no rain 7 miles west of De Soto. 😪😪

Pouring here right now. Quite nice on my metal roof as I lay down to sleep. Hope we get a soaker.

The Davis drought monitor on the roof in north St. Pete reports a very dismal .07 What happened?

The dreaded "heavy rain" forecast...except for Beryl's remnants, every single time they've called for that here we've either got nothing or a heavy sprinkle.