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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 17, 2024 8:58:14 GMT -6
Models honing in on a big hurricane late next week. Look out for that one. I noticed the Canadian had a HUGE hurricane approaching Gulf side FL...that could be a significant storm |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 17, 2024 12:53:37 GMT -6
And once again the ECMWF's AI model has been hinting at robust tropical development whereas the ECMWF is somewhat anemic with it.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 17, 2024 15:18:42 GMT -6
And once again the ECMWF's AI model has been hinting at robust tropical development whereas the ECMWF is somewhat anemic with it. I'm not too crazy about this latest hi-res version of the EC...but I still trust it more than the new fangled GFS that acts like the old DGEX half the time with crazy amplified weirdness. The AIFS is pretty awesome, IMO. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Sept 17, 2024 19:52:05 GMT -6
Harvest Moon Over Ferguson, Missouri September 17th 2024  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 17, 2024 20:17:42 GMT -6
Don’t forget to view the partial lunar eclipse going on right now
It ends in about an hour
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Sept 18, 2024 7:46:27 GMT -6
Looks like this may be the last shoot of 90* temps 🤞
55 at night 75 during the day for a few weeks will feel amazing 🤩
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Post by ComoEsJn on Sept 18, 2024 8:49:28 GMT -6
Looks like this may be the last shoot of 90* temps 🤞 55 at night 75 during the day for a few weeks will feel amazing 🤩 aren't we still showing pretty muggy and warm for the next 10 days at least? |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 18, 2024 8:53:52 GMT -6
And once again the ECMWF's AI model has been hinting at robust tropical development whereas the ECMWF is somewhat anemic with it. I'm not too crazy about this latest hi-res version of the EC...but I still trust it more than the new fangled GFS that acts like the old DGEX half the time with crazy amplified weirdness. The AIFS is pretty awesome, IMO. We're all going to be watching the AI models this winter. I'm really hoping they can provide some well needed extended range skill in our area. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 18, 2024 8:54:10 GMT -6
Looks like this may be the last shoot of 90* temps 🤞 55 at night 75 during the day for a few weeks will feel amazing 🤩 aren't we still showing pretty muggy and warm for the next 10 days at least? I think it starts cooling this weekend and should get a good shot of cool air towards the end of the month. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Sept 18, 2024 9:44:32 GMT -6
Looking at the dew points, the temp will be down, but its gonna be pretty muggy into early next week (near-70 D.P.'s on Saturday/Sunday). I'm ready for one of those big sweeping true cool fronts.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 18, 2024 11:16:12 GMT -6
Looks like this may be the last shoot of 90* temps 🤞 55 at night 75 during the day for a few weeks will feel amazing 🤩 aren't we still showing pretty muggy and warm for the next 10 days at least? Globals have trended quite a bit cooler next week |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 18, 2024 12:10:26 GMT -6
The 12z ggem and 6z AI Euro have the hurricane next week taking up like half of the GOM.
It is ridiculously large.
AI euro would bring tropical depression impacts to STL and Chicago with a ton of rain and strong winds.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 18, 2024 12:15:08 GMT -6
The 12z ggem and 6z AI Euro have the hurricane next week taking up like half of the GOM. It is ridiculously large. AI euro would bring tropical depression impacts to STL and Chicago with a ton of rain and strong winds. Models have been all over the place with that potential tropical cyclone. The trend seems to be weaker and further west in the GOM, but still a large system. Further west would definitely bode well for rainfall chances around here |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 18, 2024 16:08:27 GMT -6
Models have quite a few rain and storm chances between Fri-Mon as several disturbances move along a stationary boundary near us...hopefully that holds up
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 18, 2024 22:39:48 GMT -6
Yikes, the 00z gfs sure ups the ante for a Gulf monster next week.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 19, 2024 9:38:06 GMT -6
The GFS has had a few runs in a row showing a monster in the gulf late next week.
On the other hand, the euro and AIFS are much more tame.
One thing I have been noticing on the AIFS is a big trough over the central US to close out the month
Might be our first real taste of fall weather
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 19, 2024 10:43:49 GMT -6
12z gfs obliterates Tampa Bay with a Cat 4 before raking across the eastern seaboard.
12z Canadian hits Louisiana with a very large Cat 2 before actually coming a bit too far west for significant rain for the metro.
Since Tampa never takes a direct hit, I think we can toss the gfs.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 19, 2024 10:48:59 GMT -6
12z gfs obliterates Tampa Bay with a Cat 4 before raking across the eastern seaboard. 12z Canadian hits Louisiana with a very large Cat 2 before actually coming a bit too far west for significant rain for the metro. Since Tampa never takes a direct hit, I think we can toss the gfs. That was my first thought as well. Crazy that they've never (in recorded history) really had a major hurricane right front quandrant come into the bay. I imagine it would be pretty devastating given the level of development down there. A couple years ago when I was there I couldn't stop from thinking about how bad that would be. The ones that come up from the Carribean seem to be drawn to areas to the south (Ian, Charley, etc.). And others hit the big bend area. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 19, 2024 11:19:02 GMT -6
12z gfs obliterates Tampa Bay with a Cat 4 before raking across the eastern seaboard. 12z Canadian hits Louisiana with a very large Cat 2 before actually coming a bit too far west for significant rain for the metro. Since Tampa never takes a direct hit, I think we can toss the gfs. That was my first thought as well. Crazy that they've never (in recorded history) really had a major hurricane right front quandrant come into the bay. I imagine it would be pretty devastating given the level of development down there. A couple years ago when I was there I couldn't stop from thinking about how bad that would be. The ones that come up from the Carribean seem to be drawn to areas to the south (Ian, Charley, etc.). And others hit the big bend area. Seems like I've heard that the frictional effects from the long coastline tend to draw in storms that approach from the S/SW and save Tampa...makes sense |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 19, 2024 14:12:08 GMT -6
D2 (Severe) Drought area has been placed in the core of the St. Louis metro region with D1 (moderate) conditions pretty much elsewhere in the bi-state. Hopefully we can get some rain this weekend. System from the Gulf towards the end of the month has possibility too. October looks back to dry again at least the first 2 to 3 weeks, so hopefully we can get something.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 20, 2024 5:14:15 GMT -6
WOOHOO!!! I'm ACTUALLY getting a little rain shower. Emphasis on little.
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 20, 2024 5:44:56 GMT -6
Finally rain. Hopefully this is the start of the pattern change and we all get a good rain sunday
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Post by ElburnDave on Sept 20, 2024 6:41:24 GMT -6
Heading to Colorado this afternoon for a few days of mountain therapy. Looks like it could be a little snowy Saturday night into Sunday. Bonus!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 20, 2024 10:44:29 GMT -6
0/1
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 20, 2024 14:39:49 GMT -6
Not to jinx it, but this weekend is looking like a nice widespread rain  |
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Post by yypc on Sept 20, 2024 15:02:28 GMT -6
My local station is showing 96F with a 78 dp for a 113 HI
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 20, 2024 15:22:19 GMT -6
I guess I wasn’t paying close enough attention but holy smokes I was not ready for this level of heat and especially humidity today.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 20, 2024 17:34:21 GMT -6
Peak heat index was 107 here.
This has to be one the nastiest days of the year considering what is normal for today
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 20, 2024 18:48:42 GMT -6
One more hot day tomorrow, but then it looks like we'll be done with 'big time' heat for awhile. Still think we'll get a few more 90*F (think closer to 90 then 99) days in October depending on the traffic jam that develops as the Gulf Storm gets going. But with heat and humidity combined, this should be the last 'gross' day of the year.
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 20, 2024 19:12:45 GMT -6
Today in my opinion would of been a heat advisory in the metro. I hit max heat index of 109, and most were 105 to 110 this afternoon. I like all of you was not prepared for a high of 96 with a dp of 77 was the max at my house. I know it was gonna be hot when it was 77 when I left st 5 am and the rain shower this morning made the humidity go off the charts for September standards
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