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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 17, 2024 8:58:14 GMT -6
Models honing in on a big hurricane late next week. Look out for that one. I noticed the Canadian had a HUGE hurricane approaching Gulf side FL...that could be a significant storm
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 17, 2024 12:53:37 GMT -6
And once again the ECMWF's AI model has been hinting at robust tropical development whereas the ECMWF is somewhat anemic with it.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 17, 2024 15:18:42 GMT -6
And once again the ECMWF's AI model has been hinting at robust tropical development whereas the ECMWF is somewhat anemic with it. I'm not too crazy about this latest hi-res version of the EC...but I still trust it more than the new fangled GFS that acts like the old DGEX half the time with crazy amplified weirdness. The AIFS is pretty awesome, IMO.
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Post by Jeffmw on Sept 17, 2024 19:52:05 GMT -6
Harvest Moon Over Ferguson, Missouri September 17th 2024
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 17, 2024 20:17:42 GMT -6
Don’t forget to view the partial lunar eclipse going on right now
It ends in about an hour
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Sept 18, 2024 7:46:27 GMT -6
Looks like this may be the last shoot of 90* temps 🤞
55 at night 75 during the day for a few weeks will feel amazing 🤩
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Post by ComoEsJn on Sept 18, 2024 8:49:28 GMT -6
Looks like this may be the last shoot of 90* temps 🤞 55 at night 75 during the day for a few weeks will feel amazing 🤩 aren't we still showing pretty muggy and warm for the next 10 days at least?
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 18, 2024 8:53:52 GMT -6
And once again the ECMWF's AI model has been hinting at robust tropical development whereas the ECMWF is somewhat anemic with it. I'm not too crazy about this latest hi-res version of the EC...but I still trust it more than the new fangled GFS that acts like the old DGEX half the time with crazy amplified weirdness. The AIFS is pretty awesome, IMO. We're all going to be watching the AI models this winter. I'm really hoping they can provide some well needed extended range skill in our area.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 18, 2024 8:54:10 GMT -6
Looks like this may be the last shoot of 90* temps 🤞 55 at night 75 during the day for a few weeks will feel amazing 🤩 aren't we still showing pretty muggy and warm for the next 10 days at least? I think it starts cooling this weekend and should get a good shot of cool air towards the end of the month.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Sept 18, 2024 9:44:32 GMT -6
Looking at the dew points, the temp will be down, but its gonna be pretty muggy into early next week (near-70 D.P.'s on Saturday/Sunday). I'm ready for one of those big sweeping true cool fronts.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 18, 2024 11:16:12 GMT -6
Looks like this may be the last shoot of 90* temps 🤞 55 at night 75 during the day for a few weeks will feel amazing 🤩 aren't we still showing pretty muggy and warm for the next 10 days at least? Globals have trended quite a bit cooler next week
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 18, 2024 12:10:26 GMT -6
The 12z ggem and 6z AI Euro have the hurricane next week taking up like half of the GOM.
It is ridiculously large.
AI euro would bring tropical depression impacts to STL and Chicago with a ton of rain and strong winds.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 18, 2024 12:15:08 GMT -6
The 12z ggem and 6z AI Euro have the hurricane next week taking up like half of the GOM. It is ridiculously large. AI euro would bring tropical depression impacts to STL and Chicago with a ton of rain and strong winds. Models have been all over the place with that potential tropical cyclone. The trend seems to be weaker and further west in the GOM, but still a large system. Further west would definitely bode well for rainfall chances around here
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 18, 2024 16:08:27 GMT -6
Models have quite a few rain and storm chances between Fri-Mon as several disturbances move along a stationary boundary near us...hopefully that holds up
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 18, 2024 22:39:48 GMT -6
Yikes, the 00z gfs sure ups the ante for a Gulf monster next week.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 19, 2024 9:38:06 GMT -6
The GFS has had a few runs in a row showing a monster in the gulf late next week.
On the other hand, the euro and AIFS are much more tame.
One thing I have been noticing on the AIFS is a big trough over the central US to close out the month
Might be our first real taste of fall weather
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 19, 2024 10:43:49 GMT -6
12z gfs obliterates Tampa Bay with a Cat 4 before raking across the eastern seaboard.
12z Canadian hits Louisiana with a very large Cat 2 before actually coming a bit too far west for significant rain for the metro.
Since Tampa never takes a direct hit, I think we can toss the gfs.
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