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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2024 9:48:34 GMT -6
Recon showing extrapolated pressures in the 920s now and 158kt flight level winds. Yhe SFMR got 175kts...that can't possibly be right though. In any case we may have a Cat 5 storm already.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 7, 2024 9:56:08 GMT -6
925mb CAT 5 with 160mph winds.
Any talk of a quiet season pretty much is gone now.
Also, all 12z models are initializing terribly.
Off by like 50mb, so not sure they are helpful this cycle. Maybe they catch-up this afternoon.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 7, 2024 9:59:37 GMT -6
925mb CAT 5 with 160mph winds. Any talk of a quiet season pretty much is gone now. Also, all 12z models are initializing terribly. Off by like 50mb, so not sure they are helpful this cycle. Maybe they catch-up this afternoon. You can throw out the global models with this system right now as there is no way they are going to be able to accurately resolve how small and powerful Milton is. Hopefully the hurricane models are able to initialize correctly. |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2024 10:09:42 GMT -6
Just the last few frames of visible and IR satellite Milton continues to improve. Beautiful (meteorologically speaking). Nice symmetric CDO and a cleared out, nearly perfectly circular pinhole eye.
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on Oct 7, 2024 10:11:06 GMT -6
Vibes of Hurricane Wilma with the rapid intensification going on.
Let’s hope the shear and some dry air can weaken this some before it gets to Florida but it’s quickly getting very alarming with the track and the potential surge and wind. Tampa could be in big trouble, and that’s not even mentioning what could happen with Orlando.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 7, 2024 11:10:10 GMT -6
Recon just reported 914 mb.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2024 11:10:45 GMT -6
Yeah I was about to say recon plane taking another pass at the eye and getting another HUGE drop in pressure.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 7, 2024 11:22:38 GMT -6
Wonder what happens when he gets to the loop current...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 7, 2024 11:26:18 GMT -6
Thankfully the latest hurricane models are still showing Milton rapidly de-intensifying as it nears the FL coast
As long as the core stays small that should be the case.
But if the core is able to grow in size it will resist the shear and dry air better.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 7, 2024 11:34:37 GMT -6
Frankly..it won't matter too much how much it weakens prior to landfall. With the extreme pressure drop..now 914mb..and cat status...the surge is going to be catastrophic. Might be a cat 2 or 3 at landfall but a cat 5 surge. Like Katrina.
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202
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Post by BDS on Oct 7, 2024 11:39:11 GMT -6
175 MPH winds and 911 mb pressure per 1PM advisory
Just give him his stapler.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 7, 2024 11:50:15 GMT -6
175 MPH winds and 911 mb pressure per 1PM advisory Just give him his stapler. just incredible to see winds like that. But, not a complete suprise when you consider the potential energy that has been lurking in the GOM all season with such high heat content in that water. It was only a matter of time. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 7, 2024 12:10:43 GMT -6
Now that’s what I call rapid intensification  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 7, 2024 12:15:24 GMT -6
Think it could go over 200mph?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 7, 2024 12:34:41 GMT -6
Frankly..it won't matter too much how much it weakens prior to landfall. With the extreme pressure drop..now 914mb..and cat status...the surge is going to be catastrophic. Might be a cat 2 or 3 at landfall but a cat 5 surge. Like Katrina. That's exactly what I've been saying. This thing will have been pushing water in the direction of the FL coast for a full two days at extreme intensity. Not to mention the slight curl north that is modeled on approach. Very bad for Tampa and they better hope they find themselves on the northern side of the eye. |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2024 12:39:50 GMT -6
Think it could go over 200mph? Doubt it. I think we'd have to have like sub-890mb pressures for that. |
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Post by dschreib on Oct 7, 2024 13:45:46 GMT -6
Frankly..it won't matter too much how much it weakens prior to landfall. With the extreme pressure drop..now 914mb..and cat status...the surge is going to be catastrophic. Might be a cat 2 or 3 at landfall but a cat 5 surge. Like Katrina. That's exactly what I've been saying. This thing will have been pushing water in the direction of the FL coast for a full two days at extreme intensity. Not to mention the slight curl north that is modeled on approach. Very bad for Tampa and they better hope they find themselves on the northern side of the eye. Right--the change in track to more NE, plus the gain in forward momentum, will likely negate any weakening from whatever means (shear, cycling, etc). |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2024 14:15:03 GMT -6
GOES-16 ADT raw T#s have levelled off to around 7.5 now, but adjusted and final T#s are still catching up to the actual intensity. To the naked eye it appears there has been some additional strengthening with the moat of <-85C CDO temps now almost completely encircling the storm. Guessing Milton may be just a bit stronger now than the 150kt/911mb advisory.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 7, 2024 14:40:53 GMT -6
That eye has tightened up even more. This next advisory will be interesting.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 7, 2024 14:41:54 GMT -6
Still loads of lightning around the center. She might be leveling off, but might still bust out a couple more hours of rapid intensification before it heads into an 'Eye Wall' replacement cycle which should weaken the storm a bit but likely to remain a 4 or 5 with another pulse before Wednesday night/Thursday AM's landfall.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 7, 2024 14:45:41 GMT -6
How about this for a change in regards to local weather... A Hazardous Weather Outlook for Much BELOW Normal Temps the 15th-16th for much of the Great Lakes extending into our area. Gut tells me it'll warm right back up afterwards but could gets some frosts in or even a borderline freeze in sheltered locations. Overall October remains balmy and dry as a whole going forward. Perhaps near Halloween we might pick up a system or 2, but nothing to write home about.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 7, 2024 14:50:33 GMT -6
Milton is a little monster...the rapid central pressure fall today has been remarkable and up there with the strongest Gulf storms on record.
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202
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Post by BDS on Oct 7, 2024 14:59:25 GMT -6
905 mb and 180 mph at 4PM update.
Now predicting 10-15 ft storm surge in Tampa which would be catastrophic. Wow.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 7, 2024 15:07:10 GMT -6
905 mb and 180 mph at 4PM update. Now predicting 10-15 ft storm surge in Tampa which would be catastrophic. Wow. Strongest Storm of the year so far on the Planet. She's nudging up closer to 200mph sustained winds, and likely already there in gusts. It's been since 2017 that we've seen a storm this strong in the Atlantic according to CNN via the NHC.
Worried we could see 20 foot surge around Tampa Bay depending on which side it makes landfall.
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202
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Post by BDS on Oct 7, 2024 15:27:40 GMT -6
Tampa is in the bullseye right now for the center of the storm. Not sure that a 20 mile jog south is going to do a lot of good with the way that the onshore flow is going to be pushing water for an extended period of time as the storm moves northeast. May be only the difference between a 12-15 foot surge if it goes 20 miles north vs an 8-10 foot surge of it goes 20 miles south due to the NE motion as it heads into Florida. 8-10 is still going to be quite bad.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 7, 2024 15:30:51 GMT -6
10 to 15 feet of storm surge is now forecasted for Tampa Bay
To say that would be catastrophic is an understatement
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 7, 2024 15:32:36 GMT -6
Milton is going beast mode right now.  |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2024 16:10:45 GMT -6
Satellite presentation looks even better now than at the NHC 4pm advisory. Hope the outbound recon flight gets there in time to catch the peak. Would love to see a dropsonde measure less than 900mb.
Edit: Recon was a lot closer than I thought. Currently approaching the eye now. This should be interesting!
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2024 16:24:17 GMT -6
18z GFS was a tick south of 12z while GEFS mean is a bit north. Really honing in on Tampa Bay area.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2024 16:30:23 GMT -6
Looks like extrapolated pressure down to 899mb. Waiting on dropsonde to confirm...
Edit: Flight level winds remained high through the eye pass. Not sure they actually got to the middle. Maybe not surprising with such a miniscule eye.
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