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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 7, 2024 16:35:35 GMT -6
Looks like extrapolated pressure down to 899mb. Waiting on dropsonde to confirm... Edit: Flight level winds remained high through the eye pass. Not sure they actually got to the middle. Maybe not surprising with such a miniscule eye. I was just going to post the same thing. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 7, 2024 16:53:48 GMT -6
Pressure down to 899 mb.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2024 17:03:01 GMT -6
Yeah looks like there was a good dropsonde in the eye. 899mb with 24kt wind. That's probably actually good for 897mb!
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 7, 2024 17:06:04 GMT -6
The general rule I use is a 1 mb bias per 10 kts of wind. Another dropsonde in the eyewall got 161 kts at the surface so it is tick up there as well.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2024 17:06:36 GMT -6
The eye is 4nm according to the vortex message and the NE eyewall dropsonde measured 161kt/185mph surface wind (probably not just a gust either).
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 7, 2024 17:33:29 GMT -6
The eye is 4nm according to the vortex message and the NE eyewall dropsonde measured 161kt/185mph surface wind (probably not just a gust either). At 4NM. I. the scheme of things that's not that much bigger than the El Rino tornado. Obviously apples and oranges. But still! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 7, 2024 17:55:49 GMT -6
897MB Official Pressure with 180mph winds as of 7PM Advisory.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 7, 2024 18:19:41 GMT -6
The eye is 4nm according to the vortex message and the NE eyewall dropsonde measured 161kt/185mph surface wind (probably not just a gust either). At 4NM. I. the scheme of things that's not that much bigger than the El Rino tornado. Obviously apples and oranges. But still! Size and wind speed are similar, but a tornado does it with the friction of land |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 7, 2024 20:18:23 GMT -6
Wow, what a beast of a storm!! Even if this thing weakens and loses the greater wind speeds. It will still be a devastating storm for the west coastline of Florida. Especially those bay areas. Just not in the total catastrophic level. But if this thing goes through several more eye replacement cycles and then strengthens to this level. My goodness!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 7, 2024 21:02:02 GMT -6
Eye wall replacement well underway. The new is likely to be larger and that means larger areas of destructive winds.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 7, 2024 21:05:54 GMT -6
In case you were wondering...
with an eye of 4 miles in diameter...that makes the circumference of the eye 12.56 miles.
Assuming a parcel of air is moving at 180 mph around the eye, that parcel is making 14 trips around the center of the eye every hour!
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 8, 2024 7:57:09 GMT -6
In case you were wondering... with an eye of 4 miles in diameter...that makes the circumference of the eye 12.56 miles. Assuming a parcel of air is moving at 180 mph around the eye, that parcel is making 14 trips around the center of the eye every hour! The dropsonde that was dropped into the eyewall when it was only 4 miles wide transited more than half the circumference on its way down! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 8, 2024 7:57:22 GMT -6
Milton is struggling a bit this morning but still a hell of a storm. I wouldn't be surprised to see another period of strengthening once it gets away from the Yucatan and before it begins to encounter shear.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 8, 2024 8:20:14 GMT -6
In a pretty unfavorable shear environment for the next 24 hours--25kts out of the SW currently.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 8, 2024 8:43:25 GMT -6
Global model are showing Milton landfalling at or just south of the mouth of the Tampa Bay. Hurricane models are still showing landfall at or just north of the bay. Again there's really no good scenario here, but if Milton track ends up more like the globals that would spare the bay proper of the worst surge impacts.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 8, 2024 9:07:21 GMT -6
It looks like we are now starting to see what the new, larger eye will look like. It is becoming more defined and lots of new convection wrapping around.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 8, 2024 9:57:10 GMT -6
It's intensifying. Recon finding lower pressure again. Going over the loop current later today and tonight. Then the shear and dry air probably hampers it tomorrow before landfall.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 8, 2024 10:40:41 GMT -6
It's intensifying. Recon finding lower pressure again. Going over the loop current later today and tonight. Then the shear and dry air probably hampers it tomorrow before landfall. Satellite representation has improved significantly in the last couple of hours. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 8, 2024 10:48:25 GMT -6
Oh yea, eye clearing out and becoming very symmetrical.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 8, 2024 10:59:04 GMT -6
Although the NHC is forecasting a weakening of Milton's maximum winds prior to landfall they are also forecasting a near 3x increase Milton's total kinetic energy which is a better proxy of destructive potential.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 8, 2024 11:23:07 GMT -6
Phew that eye looks nasty again! Rapidly deepening I’m sure.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 8, 2024 11:31:43 GMT -6
Yeah Milton looking really good on satellite again.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 8, 2024 12:59:25 GMT -6
He is right on the edge of Cat 5 again. Pressure slowly dropping again, eye contracting down to 12 miles and vortex message showing winds of 157 mph
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 8, 2024 13:01:50 GMT -6
Although the NHC is forecasting a weakening of Milton's maximum winds prior to landfall they are also forecasting a near 3x increase Milton's total kinetic energy which is a better proxy of destructive potential. As a point of comparison Hurricane Charley 2004 had a total energy of 12 TJ. Milton is forecast to increase to 62 TJ. Current forecast track and intensity suggest the potential of another $100 billion disaster could be in the making here. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 8, 2024 13:08:55 GMT -6
Although the NHC is forecasting a weakening of Milton's maximum winds prior to landfall they are also forecasting a near 3x increase Milton's total kinetic energy which is a better proxy of destructive potential. As a point of comparison Hurricane Charley 2004 had a total energy of 12 TJ. Milton is forecast to increase to 62 TJ. Current forecast track and intensity suggest the potential of another $100 billion disaster could be in the making here. Where do you find total kinetic energy forecast at? |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 8, 2024 13:17:16 GMT -6
Continued improvement since recon left. Final T# up to 7.0 and raw at 7.4. Milton must be a Cat 5 again right now.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 8, 2024 13:19:28 GMT -6
Gonna make a run yesterday's numbers i believe.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 8, 2024 13:19:47 GMT -6
Dare I say that eye looks even healthier than the pinhole yesterday.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 8, 2024 13:22:26 GMT -6
Although the NHC is forecasting a weakening of Milton's maximum winds prior to landfall they are also forecasting a near 3x increase Milton's total kinetic energy which is a better proxy of destructive potential. As a point of comparison Hurricane Charley 2004 had a total energy of 12 TJ. Milton is forecast to increase to 62 TJ. Current forecast track and intensity suggest the potential of another $100 billion disaster could be in the making here. The whole coast from north of Tampa down to Ft. Meyers is so densely developed that it really doesn't matter exactly where landfall is. It's going to do tremendous damage. |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 8, 2024 13:24:14 GMT -6
Oh, and not sure if anyone noticed, but the 12z Euro has Milton slowing down as it approaches the coast only exacerbating the surge if it pans out that way.
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