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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2024 7:10:55 GMT -6
6z EPS looks really good for STL and south.
2-5 inches with ideal time of day for the snow to fall.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2024 23:30:01 GMT -6
There is some pretty cold air on the GEM late in the run.. I know she has her cold bias, but wonder if models are starting to pick up on all the signals..indices etc..maybe just wishful 🤔 What was the verdict from Uncle 🇬🇧? It was okay. Shifted back south some, but has a narrow band of impactful snow for the southern viewing area.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2024 22:15:00 GMT -6
00z gfs has a nice snow too.
However, it does it with a ridiculous surface temperature distribution 😂
Definitely worth paying attention to now
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2024 22:08:07 GMT -6
00z Icon has 3-6 inches for most of the metro with more southwest. Nice run there Is this for Sunday night? Yes, Sunday night into Monday.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2024 22:07:47 GMT -6
00z GGEM goes nuts on Sunday/Monday dropping a ton of snow over the northern viewing area.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2024 21:34:14 GMT -6
00z Icon has 3-6 inches for most of the metro with more southwest.
Nice run there
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2024 12:30:28 GMT -6
12z euro has come north as well.
Has perfect time of day and temps are better.
2-4 inches of concrete for STL south.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2024 10:17:30 GMT -6
Tonight or tomorrow it'll be in Iowa and stay there where it belongs I completely agree
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2024 10:09:31 GMT -6
Some serious concrete on the 12z gfs. Probably some tree damage for the metro that run.
12z ggem is north too and has a decent snow for the area.
In fact, GGEM is close to a very nice winter storm.
Huge reversal in all models so far.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2024 9:44:20 GMT -6
6z EPS continues the climb north. It now has a distinct camp on the northwest side of the envelope and one on the southeast side. Can ignore the mean given the bimodal distribution. This one is sounding better..even if the gap is the Grand Canyon..you like our chance in se metro wsc? I think it goes north 😂 Probably north of me and gives Kirksville to Rockford a big snow. There is nothing holding it south. We shall see. I think Southern Missouri to Southern Wisconsin all have a shot at 3+ inches of wet snow. Time of day will be a huge factor south of I80 given how warm you guys are getting.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2024 9:30:46 GMT -6
Lol, wagons north on the 12z Icon.
Pathetic modeling at this point
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2024 9:24:04 GMT -6
00z euro and EPS both came north a decent amount. 6z gfs hits the southern metro. Models can’t handle this setup well at all. Seems like they can't handle most setups this winter.  I understand your point, but there is nuance here. I think the models did incredible with our near miss before the arctic hammer came down. They had the general idea picked out nearly 300 hours out. Sure, the fine details bit us, but they nailed the conceptual framework. This storm, the differences regionally are as big as the Grand Canyon.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2024 7:15:02 GMT -6
6z EPS continues the climb north.
It now has a distinct camp on the northwest side of the envelope and one on the southeast side.
Can ignore the mean given the bimodal distribution.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2024 6:18:53 GMT -6
00z euro and EPS both came north a decent amount.
6z gfs hits the southern metro.
Models can’t handle this setup well at all.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 6, 2024 10:58:44 GMT -6
Never say die, Uncle UKIE to the rescue.
There are also a decent # of ensemble members across the various models showing this more north track.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 5, 2024 14:18:05 GMT -6
Second half of Feb into early March looks chilly. AO looks to get strongly negative. We may be on the western edge of the cold but I don't see any an early spring. Fully agree on the cold core being east based this time. Matches better with the QBO anyway. Probably will cash in on a hybrid clipper
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 5, 2024 13:16:10 GMT -6
Tracking this rain storm is useless. Ssdd But each one makes it to where I don’t have to hear about drought or summer temps of 165 F
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 5, 2024 12:57:31 GMT -6
12z euro also brings down some serious cold to the Canadian border by late next week.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 5, 2024 12:34:58 GMT -6
Model battles continue.
12z Ukmet is sheared and suppressed. 12z euro has brought our storm back with a vengeance.
Too much vengeance in fact 😂
Basically, a carbon copy of our past 2 failures.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 5, 2024 10:19:37 GMT -6
Models don’t have a clue about Super Bowl storm this cycle.
12z gfs is sheared and suppressed. 12z Icon has an ideal surface track, but is north with the upper levels. 12z ggem is furthest north, but tries to do an energy handoff.
Safe to say they won’t be reliable outside of maybe 3-4 days with this pattern.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 4, 2024 12:42:32 GMT -6
I’m looking at the 12z euro at hour 168 and don’t see how it won’t end up as a big winter storm for the area.
Let’s wait a couple minutes and see how we get missed 😂
**Update**
Now out to hour 198 the euro is a concrete crush job with 6-10+ inches for most of the viewing area.
Upper air temperatures are fantastic.
The way it tries to ruin it for us is with borderline surface temperatures. Basically, the preceding storm doesn’t pull a ton of cold air down and while there is decent high pressure blocking to our north, it is sliding to the northeast limiting evaporative cooling opportunities.
Overall, a great run but a perfect illustration of just how much has to go right for us to cash in anymore.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 4, 2024 0:52:53 GMT -6
00z euro with a Fat Tuesday blizzard lol
One can only dream of such a storm…
JK, it slides southeast and what should be a historic storm is more of a graze.
Even in fantasy land we are losing now 😂
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 3, 2024 12:41:22 GMT -6
Euro weeklies were showing a potential major SSW which would be unprecedented for back to back months. That was an outlier/sample of one and very unlikely. I much prefer a medium to high intensity stretch event given where we are in the season. I also like that things are definitely oriented more east this time, so I don’t expect a bunch of cutters. Seems like the strat vortex has been abnormally weak this winter. If it gets disrupted/displaced, the brutally cold airmass in AK currently could get dislodged into the lower 48 later in the month. I would be fine with a stretch and then a full disruption or displacement. The stretches are more reliable in my opinion.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 3, 2024 11:05:39 GMT -6
Models are showing another strat warming/stretching event developing around the 10th...the second half of the month could get interesting Euro weeklies were showing a potential major SSW which would be unprecedented for back to back months. That was an outlier/sample of one and very unlikely. I much prefer a medium to high intensity stretch event given where we are in the season. I also like that things are definitely oriented more east this time, so I don’t expect a bunch of cutters.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 3, 2024 10:38:50 GMT -6
12z ggem just misses the phase on Super Bowl Sunday. Interesting look there. It has a good bolus of cold air behind it. Not overpowering, but sufficient for winter weather.
12z gfs is kind of sheared out and then has the core of the cold over the northeast.
By Monday night I think we will have some stuff to actually invest in.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 3, 2024 10:27:56 GMT -6
I know it's from fracking...but 5.1 is decent size.. OK had no quakes until fracking started there. Now they have a bunch. Oklahoma might have the most consistently interesting/engaging weather/phenomena. Big ice storms, lots of severe weather, big snows, extreme cold, extreme heat, and the recent addition of earthquakes. Basically, one big sampler platter.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 3, 2024 9:34:59 GMT -6
5.1 earthquake in Oklahoma City early this morning. Hide yo kids. End times. Meh, more fracking
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 3, 2024 7:18:59 GMT -6
Starting to see some indications for a storm on or just after the Super Bowl.
That is the next period to keep an eye on.
Cold air should be around for a bit after that time too, so hopefully we can put it together for a couple weeks and then flip to sunny weather and baseball.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2024 18:14:27 GMT -6
It probably doesn’t meet your chain criteria, but Tuckers is good in my opinion. WSC any words on cohens blog about Cold late month..I only view it on Wednesday so I'm not sure if you have a subscription or not. Just curious if it's on or we are ready to put a fork in this one! I have to say running errands with Sun out and shades on felt real good..almost made me want Spring and warmer weather..I know bite my tongue. Thank you in advance if any insight. Chris, I hope it's ok to mention that on the page about another blog. I don’t pay for the early access, but still thinking mid-month through early March could be good.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2024 15:48:46 GMT -6
Completely off topic... Does anyone know of a good non-chain steakhouse or seafood restaurant near I-70 in the St. Charles, St. Peters, O'Fallon area? It probably doesn’t meet your chain criteria, but Tuckers is good in my opinion.
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