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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2024 21:58:36 GMT -6
I think the Fgen band Wednesday night into Thursday will drop 4-6 inches.
The problem is I think it will be over Central Illinois.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2024 14:16:48 GMT -6
Lastly, if those op models were to verify, there’d be a hella ice storm over the glacier states of IA and N IL. I was just going to say it looks like an ice storm setup to me. Basically, the places that just got snow are where I would expect the ice and then the cold comes back. They could be in serious trouble. Still holding out hope for a few inches of snow Thursday/Friday, but losing optimism.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2024 10:59:20 GMT -6
Sitting at -13° with a forecast high of -6°. Stepped out in shorts to fill the bird feeder. It's chilly. Heating bill is going to be like $1,000 this month lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2024 13:48:56 GMT -6
unreal, Random trivia for your cold Saturday... From Mon thru Fri, Des Moines airport recorded 22.3" of snow (12.4" Mon-Wed, 9.9" thru midnight last night). That is 2nd on record for a 5-day total. 1) 22.7" - Dec 28, 1941 - Jan 1, 1942 𝟮) 𝟮𝟮.𝟯" - 𝗝𝗮𝗻 𝟴-𝟭𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 So they took all my snow. Not cool
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2024 12:01:43 GMT -6
Most models have Thursday's hit of WAA snow to the N of STL, but it's pretty likely they are mixing out the cA airmass too quickly and that ends up further S IMO. That could be good for several inches where it lines up. See, I’m going the other way. I think it goes north of me to the Wisconsin state border. They get all the snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2024 10:14:01 GMT -6
12z gfs and ggem are still giving me reason to watch Thursday/Friday.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2024 22:28:56 GMT -6
Looking at the 00z Icon and 00z Ggem…
Will give it a long shot chance something spins up on Thursday/Friday with another lobe of the PV rotating in.
Probably will get torn apart, but that is probably the time period to watch before the pattern relaxes.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2024 18:45:24 GMT -6
Looking at the webcams in chicago it is amazing how much snow melted there today. You can see the grass at the lake shore. Amazing what that strong easterly flow can do to that area. You have to have snow for it to melt 😂 By the lakeshore probably had like 2 inches in the morning and then it rained for 5 hours.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2024 12:46:55 GMT -6
Lol, all my snow is being wiped out by rain.
I think I need a new hobby. Tuesday I got 1.5 inches of snow and then rain melted it all within a few hours.
Today I got 2.5 inches of snow and rain melted it all within a few hours.
NWS was saying 6-12 inches or more. What a cruel week this turned out to be
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2024 10:18:48 GMT -6
We've gone over to drizzle now, and the NWS point forecast totals have been cut by more than half for today/ tonight. It’s over. Another bust
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2024 9:00:26 GMT -6
Got a few inches out in the Skokie/Niles area. Hoping not to lose it to rain this afternoon. Don’t think I’ll even get 4 inches total, so pretty disappointed. You need to get away from that lake! I was hoping 5 miles west would be enough, maybe we will get some lake effect later this winter to makeup for it. At least everything is covered. Just don’t want grass and -10F
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2024 8:48:21 GMT -6
We had about 6" overnight but has switched to moderate sleet now. How is it in the city, WSC? Got a few inches out in the Skokie/Niles area. Hoping not to lose it to rain this afternoon. Don’t think I’ll even get 4 inches total, so pretty disappointed.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 11, 2024 9:29:50 GMT -6
The spread in models at this point from a more regional impact (Midwest, not necessarily STL) level is kind of pathetic.
I’m not impressed with the short range models at all.
Globals did a great job picking this out at a big lead, so at least there is that.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 23:07:06 GMT -6
00z Ukmet with a massive snowstorm for MLK day in southern Missouri. Wow There is a massive difference between the models with how to handle that energy. The GFS just wants to shear it out and forget about it The euro camp wants to spin it up into a full fledge nor Easter Need it to spin up enough to get winds out of the northeast and you guys can have the rest.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 22:55:19 GMT -6
00z Ukmet with a massive snowstorm for MLK day in southern Missouri.
Wow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 21:05:00 GMT -6
I'm guessing that as it goes negative, it's deepening and redeveloping the low north So, if it stayed weaker, would we have a L in our 'wheelhouse'? Or is it not going to matter in this case since it would likely be rain? I had always understood (apparently wrongly) that a strengthening system 'manufactures' its own cold air. What a waste these two storms have/could become, snow wise, for us. It is still a hell of a storm. You want it to rapidly deepen just to the east to draw the cold air in. Need a dynamic system with perfect timing given the marginal temperatures. Too weak, and you’ll get a steady rain. Too strong and a bunch of warm air will get pumped up out ahead and it won’t matter.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 20:54:11 GMT -6
Lol, the FV3 tonight is what I was picturing in my head, while the 00z 3k nam is what I’m going to get.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 14:54:58 GMT -6
18z HRRR extended looks similiar to 15z RAP. In my opinion, they both performed horribly at this range for the last storm and generally are too far north with everything
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 14:40:18 GMT -6
Low pressure over Missouri is replaced by another stronger low forming over the Bootheel as the north/central Missouri low which was the primary gets absorbed. Interesting. All the modela have been showing it like that for days. Nam is just too far north with the lead wave. Other short term guidance is having the same problem. They can’t handle the energy transfer or multi low setups at all.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 6:46:18 GMT -6
Well, it’ll sure be wintery come Sunday through Tuesday. The two biggest snows most of us get this month will come from the two storms we paid the least attention too. If the ggem is right, people will be paying a lot of attention to it through Sunday
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:49:56 GMT -6
The UKMET looks like a hard hit up 44 Friday It’s hard to tell with the limited charts available, but it is further SE than the last run It thinks that is all rain. Looks good south of 70 on Sunday though
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:33:17 GMT -6
00z GEFS is actually really solid for the metro.
Mean is about 5 inches for the Friday storm in STL.
Depending on where the rapid intensification takes place, I could see a 3-6 band hit the metro.
Then, if Sunday can swipe the area with another 3-6 inches, it’s a heck of a few days.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:17:13 GMT -6
Just like there was a good chance of decent snow today and Friday several days prior. Sunday is an Arkansas and Southern mo snow. If we're lucky we'll see an inch. Just dumb. At least you can say with certainty that it will not go north of you
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:15:42 GMT -6
The extreme cold modeled for Monday morning is wild.
Gfs has STL at -11
Ggem has STL at -10
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:08:58 GMT -6
Friday belongs to you WSC. Enjoy, you’ve been hosed too, especially considering your geography. Thanks, I have zero confidence. Rained a bunch today. Had aggregates overcome the ground and got an inch or so and then it all melted. This storm today was awful . Your storm is Sunday. High ratios upwards of 20-1, so I expect a 4-8 inch band down by you. Could be more if the ggem is right.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:05:31 GMT -6
00z ggem is awesome for everyone on Sunday.
Absolutely awesome
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 22:00:45 GMT -6
I mean, the gfs drops a lot of snow for Warren and Lincoln counties.
Not a complete shutout for the metro.
Good chance of snow and single digit temperatures on Sunday night.
And then the arctic freezer next week.
Things will be okay.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 13:23:16 GMT -6
The Canadian ensembles closely resemble the GFS ensembles Have to disagree with you a bit there. The means are similar, but the GEPS has two distinct camps. One is west like the euro and one is east like the gfs.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 12:37:12 GMT -6
The more wound up and northwest the Friday storm, the more suppressed I would expect the Sunday storm.
Sunday storm needs to sneak out in front of the arctic hammer as much as possible and can’t do that with a bomb in front of it.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 12:30:27 GMT -6
I think my ideal would be a place that averages 50 inches a year. Then it happens enough Im never upset about missing it, but not so much that it becomes boring to track. So, Northwoods of Wisconsin or Michigan then. Something away from the lakes, but close enough that any storms that come through during the winter usually result in snow. I would do a suburb, but not something too rural. I will be priced out of Chicago in the next 5-10 years along with everyone else 😂
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