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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 27, 2024 13:34:08 GMT -6
We've had many gut punches the last few winters with storms in our wheelhouse at the right time of the season only to produce what we have today. It's annoying. February does look better as we go one here..after the 1st week especially. I'll 1 up maddogs precognition and say st louis will see a 4 inch plus in February or early March. So..probably not I’ll go with 15 inches from 2 storms February 16th/17th and 22nd/23rd
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 23, 2024 22:50:53 GMT -6
00z gfs brings a piece of the PV down over the northeast by February 4th.
Things get weird from there with a southern storm running into a virtual shield.
Unstoppable force, meet immovable wall.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 23, 2024 15:59:13 GMT -6
Canadian and GFS ensembles are similar They look better as you get into the 300+ hour range at least 😂
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 23, 2024 7:34:07 GMT -6
Neighborhood was straight ice this morning. Roads were icy, but not as bad as the neighborhood.
Train platform was ridiculous.
Alas, nothing cancelled so hopefully no fire truck situations up here in Chicago this morning.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2024 20:38:04 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen suggesting we do another cycle with the PV similar to our last experience meaning more stretching.
If he is right, February could still be fun. Would expect less intense arctic air and more eastward displacement so hopefully we cash in.
Gfs has been trending more wintry in the extended the last 6 runs or so.
Euro still ugly at D10.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2024 19:56:44 GMT -6
00z nam basically has a doughnut around STL tomorrow morning.
Very minimal ice for St Charles/St Louis area through noon tomorrow on that run.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2024 19:18:32 GMT -6
Starting to get into HRRR range.
Looks like about 0.1 of ice with temps in the 27-29 range for the immediate STL area. Half of it falling with the sun down.
That will be impactful.
After that, I think things will improve rather quickly personally.
There will be some heavier pockets to the south and east to keep an eye on for additional impacts.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2024 14:41:12 GMT -6
The thing is though, the FRAM charts should take into consideration those borderline icing conditions and significantly lower the accretion numbers. The FRAM charts from most models are still showing some pretty beefy icing. I’m skeptical the formula is working correctly, but certainly worth watching closely.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2024 14:28:44 GMT -6
Yeah, a lot is falling in a 3 hour period when temps are borderline.
Better off ignoring that part in my opinion.
It just makes the numbers look more impressive than what the reality will be.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2024 12:21:27 GMT -6
The Euro has to be overcooking the icing right? There’s no way amounts would be this high over such a large area If you look at it with temps closer to 30 instead of 32, the amounts are a lot more reasonable. The stuff at 32 won’t matter.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2024 10:45:37 GMT -6
Unfortunately, looks like that nice 00z gfs run from Friday night was a one off. Boring weather for a while outside of the little hit of ice. I still have some interest in that weekend system...90% chance it's another beautiful cold rain event but there's some potential for backside snow with it Looks like it will be sheared/suppressed to me, but you never know. 12z ggem has us on the western edge of a cold blast at day 10. Gfs has it further east. I fear we sit in the 30s-50s until the last 10 days of February.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2024 10:32:50 GMT -6
The HRRR and RAP are just terrible models at anything beyond 12-18 hours.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2024 10:22:02 GMT -6
Unfortunately, looks like that nice 00z gfs run from Friday night was a one off.
Boring weather for a while outside of the little hit of ice.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2024 10:23:03 GMT -6
Which models have that lovely cold bias? Seems like it’s the Canadians? The Ggem and rgem have the biggest cold bias. The HRRR has a warm bias.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2024 8:17:49 GMT -6
Yeah, but that is your snow accumulation every morning
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2024 22:29:06 GMT -6
00z gfs with a monumental flip in output for next weekend.
It has brought the cold back to our doorstep and has storms around.
Big difference as expected, is the cold is more east based which should prevent cutters and open the door to clippers.
Interesting run, let’s see if it is the start of a trend.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2024 16:56:42 GMT -6
We have rain in the forecast for a week straight next week in January….. after 10 days of Artic air ….. only around here will that happen lol I get your point, but the same thing is definitely happening here in Chicago and up into southern Wisconsin. It is more regional than just the viewing area, I promise
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2024 17:11:03 GMT -6
That point was glassed over
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2024 12:37:59 GMT -6
Thurs/Fri still has decent potential, IMO...worth keeping a close eye on. CAMS should do better with it. Stationary fgen band could get out of control for a 15 mile wide area in the region. Amazing what the latest SREF is doing Thursday/Friday generating a sub 1000 low in Ohio when no other model has that.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2024 10:20:20 GMT -6
12z Icon with a moderate sized ice storm for the metro early next week. Temps around 29-30 with upwards of 0.5 QPF. Icon usually runs a little cold, so I’m still skeptical. Regardless, it will warm up quickly after, so that will limit impact if it happens. With the extreme cold prior over the weekend, could cause major issues as it shouldn’t have any issues freezing on contact Yeah, 12z GGEM looks like the Icon but it has the biggest cold bias of any model. Timing would be bad being before daybreak on Monday. It deserves a close eye as a potential high impact event even with only moderate QPF totals. I still expect marginal temps and a quick change to normal rain.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2024 10:05:09 GMT -6
12z Icon with a moderate sized ice storm for the metro early next week. Temps around 29-30 with upwards of 0.5 QPF.
Icon usually runs a little cold, so I’m still skeptical.
Regardless, it will warm up quickly after, so that will limit impact if it happens.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2024 9:54:56 GMT -6
Even Chicago Public Schools called off today, which almost never happens.
The only other time in the 5.5 years I’ve been here was for the PV where it was -18 with a WC of -55
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 12:53:45 GMT -6
I feel like the PV stretch events will continue with no SSW or actual splits. Obviously, pattern looks to relax considerably in about a week. I think February will be a Nor’easter month though. I am having flashbacks to the year Boston got like 80 inches in February. Cold will be further east based instead of having those high pressures hanging out in South Dakota. Bummer was hoping we could get a 2021 event in mid February 😕. Yes, 2014..it was just after the SuperBowl..I had too endure countless posts from.friends, etc from the Boston area posting feet..and feet of Snow shots on FB..they got buried..I think it was 3 monster Noreasters...those are pretty intense having lived through many of them back in the 70's and 80's.. Right now I'm living life vicariously through my family out in the foothills of Mt.Hood. Saturday blizzard with 60mph plus winds and 8 inches of snow/sleet..they have had no power for 3 days..but they go throught it alot so several generators..and a pellet stove that cranks the heat..that puppy will drive you out of the family room it's so 🔥 🥵. Dr. Cohen said PV split today and there is a good chance the winds reverse so it would count as the real thing unlike the one a couple weeks ago. So, would imagine that would setup something at the end of the month through the first 3 weeks of February. Still think the daughter vortex will setup to the east, so more of a technicality than a change in impacts I expect. Someone should have a fun February.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 11:10:36 GMT -6
Nasty ice storm, especially for the southern metro early next week on the 12z ggem. 12z gfs is warm and basically all rain. I lean towards maybe a brief period of ZR and then plain rain with minimal impact. Ggem is always too cold. WSC, what do you think the prospects are of another split or stretch end of the month into February? I've read the Cohens blog but was not sure if he thought it was happening again..Dave seems to be hitting it hard for mid February just wanting your thoughts..I know you follow that. Do you think it's just a relax of pattern next 10? CPC puts us in highly likely above temps..22-28..I know it's realitive in January..ty if you have any insight. Have to add this Airmass is impressive as I said a few days ago Edmonton was -51..3 days later it's weakened but still -31.. I'm sure the Snow cover in Iowa is helping "cool" us even more..pretty incredible for lack of snow here...if only...probably say that phrase all winter...geez.. I feel like the PV stretch events will continue with no SSW or actual splits. Obviously, pattern looks to relax considerably in about a week. I think February will be a Nor’easter month though. I am having flashbacks to the year Boston got like 80 inches in February. Cold will be further east based instead of having those high pressures hanging out in South Dakota.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 10:37:04 GMT -6
Nasty ice storm, especially for the southern metro early next week on the 12z ggem.
12z gfs is warm and basically all rain.
I lean towards maybe a brief period of ZR and then plain rain with minimal impact.
Ggem is always too cold.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 10:30:59 GMT -6
$20 says by March the talk is about high river levels and flooding. We go through this cycle every year. The Mississippi river and Missouri river can flood all it wants, but for those away from the flood plain and farmers it's not a good prospect. You can have river flooding and still technically be in a drought as its from all upstream, and away from the flood plain it's not going to help the local water tables. California is still here and kicking. I think it’ll be okay
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 10:22:05 GMT -6
For example, the area in IA probably has about 2.5”-3” of liquid equivalent locked up in their glacier. More worried about south of I-70 as far as drought. But unless it's wetter in February and March the drought will have an area to expand from and reinforce it's hold on the region. $20 says by March the talk is about high river levels and flooding. We go through this cycle every year.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 10:21:11 GMT -6
Interesting? Or more absolute bullsh!t Interesting in that it actually fires up the Fgen band. For instance, GGEM doesn’t even bother with it. Nothing of consequence for about 10 days realistically anyway.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 10:02:26 GMT -6
12z gfs is interesting on Thursday.
Splits STL, but the northern counties get some Fgen action and the southern counties get some WAA.
12z Icon is a bit icy next Monday as well.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2024 9:26:04 GMT -6
Just remember this is very misleading because the data is old. The region has seen a lot of rain and snow since the last update.
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