|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 7, 2020 11:49:24 GMT -6
What is the Ukmet showing today, any secondary development? Nope. Ejects a bit too quickly. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 7, 2020 0:41:09 GMT -6
No good euro
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 6, 2020 22:36:57 GMT -6
Based on the dominant pattern of cut-off lows so far this season, while the ICON is probably a bit of a wish cast, I think the GFS is probably a bit too quick.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 6, 2020 22:35:26 GMT -6
i.imgur.com/GVz9ETD.pngi.imgur.com/wLtiqqQ.pngICON is ~12-18 hours slower with the progression of that secondary energy allowing it to dig significantly further to the SW noting the significant difference of amplification of the trailing ridge as well.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 6, 2020 22:31:14 GMT -6
Major differences in the amplification of the eastern Pacific ridge seem to be dictating the difference between these two solutions.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 6, 2020 22:28:46 GMT -6
00z GFS cutter city. Meh! Let's hope the 00z GEM and Euro are different. GFS is doing the same thing as the ICON wrt the first piece of energy. It all has to do with how the ICON's upper level flow gets back up over the for corners allowing for oodles of PAC moisture to pour into a ton of cold air. If the GFS can slow down JUST a bit, it would look similar |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 6, 2020 22:27:27 GMT -6
GFS far more progressive, but it has a similar upper-level setup.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 5, 2020 15:24:28 GMT -6
56.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 5, 2020 12:14:57 GMT -6
Unfortunately the GFS doesn't have much support right now. Last night's euro and this morning's GEM are sheared out messes I’ll take that over a cutter to our west. At least keeps it cooler with a Chance for snow showers. Really just trying to highlight the high run-to-run variability in the operational models in the day 5-10 range. No reason to get too worked up over it I'm gunna get worked up and there's nothing you can do to stop me.  |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 5, 2020 12:09:49 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 4, 2020 20:31:19 GMT -6
NAM's are looking good for Sunday night into Monday morning.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 4, 2020 14:57:59 GMT -6
Stick a fork in it per the CPC
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 4, 2020 9:05:34 GMT -6
surprised the Star of Bethleham hasnt been talked abt. the lining up of two planets in the southwest sky...typically happens every 20 years or so. hopefully clear skies will prevail. abt 45 minutes after sunset on dec 21, jupiter and saturn will line up giving the appearance of the Christmas Star. exceptionally rare this year bc the two planets will appear closer together than usual, less than the diameter of the moon. i dont know if we wld notice any difference but lets hope for no rain or clouds. Apparently this is the closest they've aligned since March of 1226! I'll look for the article |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 4, 2020 0:03:29 GMT -6
monster snow for MA/ME this weekend
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2020 23:16:54 GMT -6
12 days out guys...
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2020 20:51:56 GMT -6
Just found a new favorite youtube channel
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2020 16:29:23 GMT -6
18z NAM is pretty darn aggressive with widespread snow showers Sunday evening that sharp vort "rounding the bend" the northeastern longwave troughing.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2020 16:13:58 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2020 15:23:45 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2020 13:55:55 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2020 13:44:06 GMT -6
Just a quick retort/rant about some observations yesterday. I happened upon a link trending in Twitter about how The Goo Goo Dolls were performing Christmas songs and they were referred to as a classic rock band. I chuckled to myself (and gratefully too) because I have reached the age to where this happens quite frequently now. I started reading the comments and the flat out hateful, mean, condescending, ruthless remarks from people WRT to the lead singer's apparent aging. WTH is wrong with people. Apparently there is a need for a lot of people to stand in front of a mirror while pointing their finger at themselves and stay there until the realization hits them that 3 fingers are pointing back at themselves. That was one of the many eye opening lessons I was taught early on in sobriety. Rant over except for the warming of the temperatures overnight as the moisture moved in. People are a lot braver behind a computer screen than they are face-to-face... that's one thing social media has really done to unravel meaningful discourse in our society... That has become unhinged this year. EDIT: and perhaps it's less about social media and more about the dichotomy of humans and computers. Our brains did not evolve to function in this environment. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 2, 2020 22:45:47 GMT -6
It is astounding how familiar this pattern looks. Another sheared out 4 corners cut off for the stuff mid-month. Wild to look at. Feels like deja vu.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 2, 2020 20:46:12 GMT -6
A mean like this a week and a few days out can't be a bad thing either... i.imgur.com/qTvzEL0.pngI have hopes for that time frame. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 2, 2020 16:52:32 GMT -6
18z gfs giving us the bullish warm sector treatment.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 2, 2020 14:20:34 GMT -6
A lot of people use that plinko analogy to describe the NWP *process*... but looking at that, it's like an actually game of freakin' plinko in the sky! lol
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 1, 2020 22:48:17 GMT -6
Fantasy-land GFS continues to look interesting around mid-December.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 1, 2020 16:17:22 GMT -6
looks like northern Ohio will be in line for another whopper once that low exits our area.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Nov 30, 2020 21:24:40 GMT -6
Here's what I have noticed so far this year... models have been trending a bit too warm with this marginal temp cases-- looking at October 27th, and the sleet mess that came through last week... And to see the NAM trend in the direction of what the GEFS snow means were earlier today give me hope to see some flakes flakes in my neck of the woods come Thursday morning. Not like any of you care... sucks to see that thing just collapse inside of itself as it loses upper-level support.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Nov 30, 2020 18:54:00 GMT -6
beauty.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Nov 30, 2020 11:22:43 GMT -6
from the NOAA Physical Sciences Lab:
Note: As of 23 September 2020, the Global Ensemble Forecast System has been upgraded to a much-improved version 12, and this page for the older model version is now obsolete. We have also, regrettably, discontinued the production of many value-added experimental forecast products, including post-processed probabilistic forecast guidance, Extreme Forecast Indices, and GEFS-based teleconnection indices, due to lack of funding.
|
|
