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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 12:57:16 GMT -6
looks like OKC will cash in on two solid 1-3"ers
what a joke.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 11:59:35 GMT -6
UKMET not completely hopeless Tuesday.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 10:29:20 GMT -6
Although to be fair, about 2-4 inches of that will be the "mini nor'easter" they get from junk rolling through our area tomorrow night. So they get 1 accumulating snow event, and then an entire STL's winter worth of snow events for the next one.
I want to puke.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 10:27:57 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 10:17:21 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 10:06:14 GMT -6
I dunno about STL folks, that's a bit of a closer call, but we're not getting more than a trace here in central MO over the next 7 days.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 10:04:38 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 9:11:06 GMT -6
I’ll take it! Looking better with each run now. 9z SREF is solid in your neck of the woods. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2020 22:32:42 GMT -6
seems like our kiss of death would be the bone-dry n'easterly flow off of that Quebec high. That's a steep layer of subsidence to overcome. i.imgur.com/uckVgX6.png |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2020 17:38:20 GMT -6
Meanwhile in Alaska. Might need to break out the extra pair of thermal underwear A sign of what's brewing? |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2020 17:19:04 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2020 17:11:53 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2020 16:39:22 GMT -6
This whole thing is bonkers wrt data flow issues for NCEP. everything is coming in so slow. Dinosaur government strikes again...
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2020 15:39:28 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2020 13:14:29 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2020 11:38:52 GMT -6
UKMET takes the GFS route.
for potential midweek system.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 10, 2020 23:08:24 GMT -6
GEM crushes the midweek storm out of existence
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 10, 2020 15:50:02 GMT -6
I don't know about any dumps... But it does look like an easterly component of the wind slowed down KSTL's run at 74 this afternoon. Looks like 65 will be the best ya'll can do. Seems like we touched 70 here for a brief moment around 3pm here at KCOU.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 10, 2020 13:23:14 GMT -6
👀👀
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 10, 2020 11:39:08 GMT -6
imgur.com/Vjb43tp.pngThis is for someone who's got more experience... eyeing the WRF run and noticing this trough axis beginning to protrude in the last few frames. Is that helping sustain that area of deformation at all? Does it help the precip field expand further south? EDIT: I think BRTN just answered my question a few posts back woops.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 9, 2020 11:18:55 GMT -6
It's December 9th and I gotta be honest, I'm already tired of this pattern and winter disappointment in general. If I could allow myself to step away I would be much better off, but I keep coming back. It's kinda like anything else in life. Live through the sting because sometimes you'll get a taste of the honey. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 9, 2020 11:02:58 GMT -6
Models are starting to hone in on the surface low tracking from STL to CHI. Not going to see much wintry stuff from a track like that I'm trying to figure out why models are focusing so much energy with that lead wave and not the trailing energy...the short wavelength may be partially to blame...but it looks to me like there's enough room for a secondary SLP wave to develop. The 500mb vort max track really isn't too far off to be favorable for us...but the surface cyclone stays stubbornly north and wrapped up. I'm still not convinced it will play out like that. All the energy involved here is still pretty much unsampled by RAOB. BRTN always makes the goat calls in these situations. I still have hope. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 9, 2020 0:40:25 GMT -6
Looks like MS/AL could be in for a repeat of this event if the EURO gets its way. A friendly reminder that the winter 2017-2018 left most of our region with under 5" of snow for the season IIRC. I believe it was one of COU's least snowiest at like, 1.7" or something like that. EDIT: Turns out that was 16-17, with 1.6" at COU, 17-18 was gross too though, only 3.2" (16-17 was STL's 3rd least snowiest year on record at 1.4"). |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 8, 2020 18:25:40 GMT -6
Analogs doing us no favors. Cmoooon 00z. Give us the goods!
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 8, 2020 14:56:29 GMT -6
 Euro ensemble member 31 seems to have it figured out god bless it... |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 8, 2020 0:31:32 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 7, 2020 23:57:25 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 7, 2020 23:01:52 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 7, 2020 22:57:31 GMT -6
those are some encouraging trends across the board from the 00z suite.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 7, 2020 11:53:24 GMT -6
Going to be highly dependent on the trajectory of the wave crashing onshore and it's interaction with the current cut-off low over the 4-corners region.
GEM has the vort max riding along the Sierra's allowing it to pool up over the S Great Basin
while the GFS/UKIE take it onshore a bit further to the north and it gets sling-shotted over the great divide.
Euro is on the move.
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