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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 16, 2020 21:18:40 GMT -6
or,... they could just drop a bomb on it... Problem solved!! bet oregon state officials would beg to differ |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 16, 2020 5:05:23 GMT -6
Zip in como
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 15, 2020 22:49:57 GMT -6
full displacement of the polar vortex, per the gfs. that is pure arctic cold.  Looks nice... a couple of couplings. definitely a transient punch tho... airmass moderates in about 36 hours lol that's a pretty upper-air signature... |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 15, 2020 22:31:46 GMT -6
full displacement of the polar vortex, per the gfs. that is pure arctic cold.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 15, 2020 22:30:08 GMT -6
oof. that's a hell of a 00z gfs
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 15, 2020 21:25:42 GMT -6
I just want to wake up to a GD coating of dry powdery snow. something to cover the grass and cars... that's it.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 15, 2020 20:56:16 GMT -6
Still nothing in pville. What the heck. Looks like you'll have something in the next 10-15min |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 15, 2020 16:31:56 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 15, 2020 11:29:27 GMT -6
It's insane that that beautiful shield of snow is going to vaporize over the next several hours.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 15:21:13 GMT -6
amarillo tx has had 11.5 inches of snow, 7 inches above normal. due north, bismark, nd checks in with 4.9, which is nearly 10 inches below normal. definitely a southern pattern in play here. wldnt surprise me if memphis gets action eventually with this pattern. The exact opposite of what folks were thinking in a Nina pattern... we'll see if it persists into J F M... |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 14:24:56 GMT -6
Does timing call for folks to at least pay attention Wednesday morning? Most of this falls in the dead of night... I'd have to expect roads could get slick, even with a trace to 1"... no?
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 11:35:24 GMT -6
UKMET is on board with a uptick in moisture.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 11:21:08 GMT -6
Another heart warming trend is that there's good potential for NYC to get screwed by the warm/marine layer...the NAM has the 0*C line setting up across LI which would certainly allow mixing to occur near the coast. The "50/50 low" moves out too quickly and allows the system to come in too far north...and it's moving quickly at that. I wouldn't be surprised if Central Park gets less than 3"...and it could be a complete bust if the tail end of the deformation stays north. This man is evil and I like it. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 10:40:50 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 9:55:10 GMT -6
It's very possible that the globals just don't have the resolution to pick up on the mesoscale features that the HRRR/Nam are dilineating. Notice how the NAM has been the only one close to showing anything the past day and a half.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 9:53:46 GMT -6
yeesh... looking at that HRRR if we had ANY moisture to work with, this would be a solid 3-5 incher
Kuchera's are 12-16:1
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 9:26:46 GMT -6
Guess now is a better time for an announcement... will be making my way back to Colorado on the 27th. My new gig is still under wraps, but thankfully I'll still be in weather. It's been nice to be back forecasting in the midwest the past 3 years. Congratulations! My wife and I will be out there in July to purchase our retirement place. Will be a full-time Coloradan in just over 10 years. Can't wait! Hard to beat the dry air in the summer... hopefully the raging wildfires/smoke isn't an annual thing now either. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 8:43:52 GMT -6
Luke, What’s the announcement? You beat me I was surprised about how many folks guessed it last night... but I guess some of those folks have been following my instagram. Social media is weird 🤪 |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 8:39:42 GMT -6
Guess now is a better time for an announcement... will be making my way back to Colorado on the 27th.
My new gig is still under wraps, but thankfully I'll still be in weather.
It's been nice to be back forecasting in the midwest the past 3 years.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 8:37:17 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 8:35:03 GMT -6
Did some digging. At least here in Columbia, for the period 12-1 to 1-15, we've averaged 2 1" or more events since 1890.
When compared to 1-15 to 2-28, that value increases to ~3.3.
Plenty of winter ahead.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 13, 2020 21:32:41 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 13, 2020 20:59:34 GMT -6
Are you talking about the Tuesday night yes, all the problems have been at h85 and the mid-level low manages to bolster up just enough to pull in some moisture i.imgur.com/w41lVXc.png |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 13, 2020 20:26:33 GMT -6
damn, we nearly saturate the column on the 00z nam.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 13, 2020 19:23:36 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 13, 2020 11:32:08 GMT -6
yeah this sucks.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 13, 2020 1:12:35 GMT -6
Euro is so close... just need the low to close off a little sooner.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 22:08:24 GMT -6
If it makes you feel better, the 00z gfs shafts NYC pretty good I'll assume this is a joke  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 22:00:29 GMT -6
sucks because there are decent dynamics through the column... GD leftover cold airmass eats it all up. i.imgur.com/simh81s.png |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 12, 2020 21:55:55 GMT -6
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