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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 29, 2024 17:26:00 GMT -6
The damage I've seen from the Omaha area looked like high end EF3/EF4 with trees stripped of branches and homes destroyed but not completely swept clean and trees debarked like you'd expect from an EF5.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 29, 2024 17:23:03 GMT -6
1.98" here last night...impressive rainfall with a lot of runoff due to the ground already being somewhat saturated. The drought is just about history I'd say.
Looks like we're getting into a rapid fire pattern with lots of shortwaves in the semi-zonal flow moving through. Models show rain chances about every other day for the next week or so. Overall it looks pretty mild...fairly typical weather for this time of year.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 28, 2024 16:37:12 GMT -6
I happened to check the SOI index today on a whim because of how active the S stream has been lately and it has taken a pretty good downturn over the past couple months. That led me to the CPC ENSO page and it looks to me like the La Nina that was expected to develop this spring is struggling to do so. There's only a small area of cool anomalies off the S America coast so far. Has the forecast changed?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 28, 2024 11:04:21 GMT -6
There is more clearing developing than I expected this morning...already some rowing CU developing out near SGF.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 28, 2024 7:11:00 GMT -6
Yeah, not gonna be much destabilization with the widespread clouds and precip in the warm sector today. Might be a strong wind gust or two with the line that develops later this evening but it's not looking too impressive. Just more beneficial rain...I got 90% of the garden planted as of yesterday so this is very welcome.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 27, 2024 10:41:56 GMT -6
CAMs are pretty insistent with developing scattered showers and storms across the region this afternoon. I'm struggling to find a forcing mechanism with mid-level height rises occurring but it seems like a secondary warm front is developing just to our S/SW ahead of the ejecting upper low so that may be what models are picking up on. I'd be surprised if these pose a severe threat with a lack of deep lift but a pulse strong storm or two is possible.
Tomorrow is looking somewhat messy with models showing widespread cloudiness and precip across the region. We'll have to see how that trends, as the kinematics and dynamics are definitely supportive for severe storms.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 26, 2024 20:03:27 GMT -6
0.60" here so far today
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 26, 2024 20:02:04 GMT -6
PDS TOR for the Des Moines Metro...yikes
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 26, 2024 17:51:18 GMT -6
That's a monster...looked close to a mile wide or more.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 26, 2024 15:13:05 GMT -6
Very impressive tornadic supercell near Blair, NE...140kt+ G2G with large debris ball
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 24, 2024 19:01:54 GMT -6
Friday's severe threat is looking pretty conditional around here, with the warm front being stubborn to lift through probably favoring overcast and lack of strong destabilization. There could be some strong storms around during the morning hours with the lead wave and maybe another round during the evening but it doesn't look too impressive right now to me. Sunday looks like it has much better potential. Either way, several rounds of beneficial rainfall look likely. Hopefully we can keep chipping away at the drought into early summer and avoid a repeat of last year!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 23, 2024 18:00:14 GMT -6
0.22" in High Ridge. Big drops. Had the same tally in Brighton...not great, but I'll take it.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 23, 2024 11:07:39 GMT -6
Amazing how much more rain central IL has had with almost every system the past several months. The cut off always seems to set up around Rt 108.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 20, 2024 9:38:49 GMT -6
Sad day for the forum...may Sue rest in peace
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 19, 2024 10:59:32 GMT -6
Blanket warnings were absolutely warranted yesterday...there were little spin ups every few miles along nearly the entire line and it's impossible to know when one might intensify between scans.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 18:23:25 GMT -6
Storm around Ironton/ F’town looks like it’s wrapping up. Big hail spike too.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 17:48:29 GMT -6
Did High Ridge get hit by a tornado? The velocity signature looked very impressive as it passed through.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 17:26:51 GMT -6
Thats the exact path my first tornado went back in 11. Finally produced around honey bend. Good luck. Luck wasn't on my side today. Headed out about 10mins too late and couldn't catch the tornado before it cycled so I dropped south to catch the next storm in line and got stuck in torrential rain between them. It didn't help that my phone was about dead and radarscope wouldn't refresh after about 530 for some reason.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 16:15:12 GMT -6
He is on a tornado in Greene County, IL. Wow En route
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 15:32:11 GMT -6
KLSX VWP is measuring 0-1km SRH at 214 m2/s2 and 0-1/2km SRH at 152 m2/s2. Those values are rather high and do support tornados so we will have to keep an eye on that as the line approaches the metro. Guarantee it's higher than that a bit further N along the warm front. Those supercells to the N/NW mean business.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 14:41:20 GMT -6
Surprised the SPC didn't go with a TOR watch given the potential for discrete supercells along a warm front, QLCS tornadoes and wind gusts of 70mph+
Winds are strongly backed here out of the SE with a 65* dewpoint...this is tornado weather
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 11:14:42 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 11:11:21 GMT -6
Looks like the storms may hold off until most of the evening rush hour is over That’s some good news as I wasn’t looking forward to driving home in hail/wind Going to have plenty of time for destabilization with full clearing developing across E/Central MO...today is turning into a tinder box situation quickly.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 9:16:54 GMT -6
Looks like we should see upscale growth with those cells near Sedalia along the remnant outflow this afternoon. Pretty good destabilization underway with the broken overcast along/S of 70.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 17, 2024 15:45:38 GMT -6
Futurecast teeing up the ol STL Split for tomorrow I see...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 19:23:17 GMT -6
Ended up with a whopping tenth of an inch of rain Let’s hope Thursday night brings a good soaker I happened to catch one of the "other" stations sim radar forecasts earlier and it looked pretty intense with multiple bows impacting the region on Thursday. NAM has 2000-2500j/kg CAPE with 40-50kts bulk shear so that outcome seems plausible. The compact low that develops and tracks just N of the Metro could help back surface winds and increase the tornado threat too. But the NAM is void of activity in the warm sector for some reason.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 15:45:41 GMT -6
I sure hope the front brings some rain...that was extremely disappointing
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 15:05:38 GMT -6
These storms are really struggling as they head into IL with the weaker lapse rates...nothing but sprinkles here in Brighton
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 12:47:41 GMT -6
Guess there's enough lift and minimal CINH to get storms going after all. Looks like a noisy afternoon...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 8:25:44 GMT -6
Sooooo tempted to get some summer veggies in the ground... I put 40 hills of potatoes in after work yesterday. Onions going in today. Warm weather stuff probably next week after this cool snap.
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