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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 4:59:14 GMT -6
Today's severe threat is about as conditional as it gets for the Metro region. It doesn't look like the steeper lapse rate plume will make it this far S/E so instability is marginal and forcing for ascent is pretty weak with no surface boundary nearby. If storms can develop they will pose a severe threat, but it's questionable that they do until late tonight once the front approaches.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 14, 2024 7:52:19 GMT -6
We definitely need to watch Tuesday closely. There's good potential for clearing/surface heating during the morning and afternoon as the lead wave moves through and the warm front lifts north. If that can overlap with the steep lapse rate plume/EML, sufficient instability will develop for supercells.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 11, 2024 11:20:44 GMT -6
Crazy sharp gradient on the NW fringe with this system...Jersey Co got almost nothing on the west end while the E side got over an inch.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 8, 2024 16:51:17 GMT -6
Spectacular! The corona with the bonus solar flare was something I'll never forget.
There were several hundred visitors gathered at the Moonshine store. Glad I went East and avoided the traffic on the N/S bound highways.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 7, 2024 14:54:29 GMT -6
My target tomorrow is Moonshine, IL
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2024 9:08:44 GMT -6
The GFS has been bullish with a weak vort max trickling through mid-day while other guidance seems void of that feature. I'm siding on the side of optimism too given that.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2024 8:26:40 GMT -6
I honestly think a thin veil of cirrostratus is favorable for viewing...thin being the key word. The wrench in the gears is a weak front that could set off some CU locally.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2024 11:08:50 GMT -6
Praying for you and your family during this difficult time, Sue!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 3, 2024 5:55:40 GMT -6
Graupel mixing in near Godfrey...might see some decent bursts of snow today
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 2, 2024 16:33:44 GMT -6
Pretty wild...the 12z EC looks almost identical to the current flow at 500mb over the US on D10.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 17:22:40 GMT -6
That supercell approaching Chesterfield is really trying to spin up...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 15:31:46 GMT -6
Here we go...deep convection firing N of Rolla
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 13:58:56 GMT -6
Dewpoint up almost 15* since this morning at 66*...it sure feels unstable out there.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 7:25:54 GMT -6
I must have been asleep at the wheel, lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 7:25:25 GMT -6
SPC has introduced a 10% hatched TOR risk along/N of 44 into the Metro.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 6:39:56 GMT -6
CAMs are showing a few supercells traversing the warm front across the N counties this afternoon/early evening, and a threat of overnight QLCS tornadoes with the MCS that develops across OK/MO and tracks ENE. The first batch around mid-day doesn't look as feisty, but CAPE is forecast to reach 1500-2000j/kg+ by then so severe storms are possible. It's looking like a busy day ahead...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 6:05:29 GMT -6
IR sat shows broken clearing across S/Central MO this morning and little to no precip...going to get unstable today for sure.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 31, 2024 7:55:41 GMT -6
Tomorrow looks messy to me...the NAM has shifted northward with the frontal position and instability plume, but debris clouds and precip within the warm sector looks pretty likely. If we do see some clearing during the morning/early afternoon, a greater threat could develop, but it's very conditional as Chris pointed out. The SPC forecast seems pretty bullish to me too.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 30, 2024 9:46:38 GMT -6
NAM looks too aggressive with pushing the boundary well south of the Metro Sunday PM/Mon AM...globals are further N with most of the area within the warm sector.
Looks like the N half or so of the area could see some elevated hailers tonight into tomorrow AM.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 30, 2024 8:11:42 GMT -6
SPC mentions potential for a greater tornado threat near the warm front Monday with backed surface winds and high SRH...we'll have to watch that closely.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 29, 2024 11:58:21 GMT -6
Definitely a dynamic environment on Monday...but with that much large-scale lift, precip and debris clouds might be a limiting factor.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 29, 2024 8:41:03 GMT -6
Looks like the 00z cycle trended south with the stationary/warm front and SLP track on Monday, favoring the southern counties for the severe threat.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2024 18:30:42 GMT -6
Also of interest besides for the potential severe outbreak is another possible hard freeze and maybe even some flakes with a strong front towards the middle of next week.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2024 18:19:03 GMT -6
Looking at today's models, the timing of that trof ejection around the Eclipse is tricky with the -NAO breaking down around then. How quickly that happens, as well as the timing of the trof digging across AK on ~D10 acting as a kicker is still very much in question.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2024 11:03:19 GMT -6
Latest CSU probability outlook showing moderate/hatched risk across much of MO for next Monday.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 27, 2024 15:20:11 GMT -6
I know its still a ways out there but models have been pretty consistent with a large lingering system over the middle of the country on April 8...that would suck. The trend has been towards a faster ejection than what models show in this timeframe, so hopefully that's the case. The S stream has been fairly progressive lately.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 25, 2024 17:44:03 GMT -6
Really nice soaker setting in this evening...was a bit concerned with models showing the heavier QPF to the NW and the leading edge being so stubborn earlier. This is good timing for the morels with warm temps later this week.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 18, 2024 17:10:06 GMT -6
Really rooting for that scarce dusting IMBY...bring it on!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 15, 2024 19:38:01 GMT -6
Looks like 5 tornadoes have been confirmed by our local NWS office. All EF0. Almost IMBY...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 15, 2024 13:48:37 GMT -6
My low tech watching !AccuNotWx!.com for pickneyville, IL continues to show sunshine and patchy clouds with a high of 60. The !AccuNotWx! forecasts have been criticized heavily by meteorologists. I'd say it's every bit as accurate as an ensemble forecast 20+ days out...that is to say, it isn't.
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