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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 16:15:41 GMT -6
Rap looks great along and south of 70 with 1 to 3
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 16:13:40 GMT -6
I guess, i forgot bout that. Sorry
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 16:02:45 GMT -6
Gfs has been dry as a bone this entire storm honestly. If it pulls this off it is a big win for that model
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 15:28:56 GMT -6
Who knows, but chris forecast is spot on for now and just let it ride.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 14:28:51 GMT -6
I will give dc one thing they have not had much snow at all in years. At least we get snow. An even the hi res nam is 1 to 2 from Metro west and south so its not a total write off for anyone just yet
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 14:21:44 GMT -6
It definately gets the area a nice 1 to 3 on the nam, and really starts coming togeter for se mo with the main storm.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 14:18:55 GMT -6
I like the one inch Idea, and nam looks better to me
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 10:31:03 GMT -6
I think most expected nothing more. Wherever that tiny band ends up we will all just drive to see our snow.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 9:17:24 GMT -6
we will not know whats happening until it is happening
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 8:43:07 GMT -6
I know its the end of the 12 z hrrr but it has a 2 plus inch snow right down 70 from the fgen band
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 7:30:13 GMT -6
It does show 2 to 4 area wide if you look at the kuchera ratios
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 6:45:56 GMT -6
Metro still looks goot for 1 to 3 at this stage, because this could just be the nam being the nam and juicing things up too much area wide. As of this morning there is a minimum from warrenton to troy, to jerseyville
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 6:38:23 GMT -6
Lets just say 1 to 9 area wide and call it a day lol. All seriousness we need to get todays cold front to move through and see how the energy looks tomorrow morning in my opinion
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 6:32:29 GMT -6
Verbatim that would be solid advisory from Lincoln warren countoes southeast, with near warning south of 44 and 64
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 6:11:56 GMT -6
Yes while not to get too wrapped up in it nam would throw widespread snow to the area wrapping the system up quicker
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 20:37:15 GMT -6
Nam definately is the northern outlier right now. Does get the main system going a bit faster though
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 19:33:27 GMT -6
But it will definately be over st.peters ofallon and wentzville lol
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 19:32:43 GMT -6
Just let it play out yall.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 12:19:42 GMT -6
I have no Idea what I am doing wrong with you guys. I am doing absolutely nothing radical, and never said there was going to be a major ice storm. seriously
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 11:57:07 GMT -6
Good lord, none of us expected Thursday to be much, just let it play out guys.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 7:07:55 GMT -6
Did you see me jumping a over when the amped up models came in yesterday on this system. Nooooooo. So thats why I say again. Give me a break. We are all adults here. And I feel I am better than I have been in years past. Im trying I get excited is all as I love the weather and love model watching
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 6:54:13 GMT -6
And I dont plan to change my thoughts for Thursday until we are nowcasting that system.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 6:53:09 GMT -6
You know I have not been nearly as crazy this year, so seriously I feel like I am doing just fine. We are all here to enjoy the weather. Some do exactly what I do on here. I have accurately reported my observations through the storm, I never said we were going to get a massive Ice storm this weekend, i just said I was noticing what some models were showing, in addition if you recall I never changed my rain to cold scenario with possible ice for the last weekend system.
So yes please give me a break.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 6:45:16 GMT -6
Im sure I will change it day of. But seriously give me a break.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 6:10:30 GMT -6
Im goving a 50/50 shot at a dusting, the air to me just looks too dry to me and.things may get too supressed.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 2, 2022 12:21:09 GMT -6
Euro still looks good for late week
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 2, 2022 10:58:52 GMT -6
Not too worried bout the uckie it never had more than a tiny narrow band, its still there just south a little.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 2, 2022 8:30:22 GMT -6
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 1, 2022 23:06:08 GMT -6
One of those rare nights where we are colder than chicago at the moment. Amazing what the lake does in chicago proper.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 1, 2022 22:50:28 GMT -6
Oh come on guys Im really trying hear by not hyping. I really am. Give me a break
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