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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 4:36:40 GMT -6
6z gfs is a step back in the right direction.
It even has a “bonus” clipper on Christmas to round things out.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 1:35:55 GMT -6
00z euro is a full blown bomb cyclone registering a 34 mb drop in pressure in a 24 hour period (well beyond the 24 in 24 minimum).
It is actually more impressive than at 12z. The difference is that it is more progressive.
Still an incredible run and incredible storm.
Should ease some nerves for those worried about the gfs solution.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 22:56:47 GMT -6
Definitely a step back on the 00z gfs ensembles, though plenty of individual members still show a good storm.
Mixed set of runs so far, but with the Ukmet west, I’m confident the euro will not be collapsing to the gfs tonight.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 22:48:48 GMT -6
00z Ukmet is loading up for something big…
Incredible temperature gradient at hour 144.
Perhaps, just a little bit too far west based, but looks like it is dumping heavy snow at the end of its run.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 17:24:35 GMT -6
If it's going to be stupid cold, really need snow to offset it. The snow is actually what will make it stupid cold ironically. Otherwise, it would just be dumb cold.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 16:56:21 GMT -6
Yes GFS took a step towards the euro Some huge 18z gfs ensemble members in there.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 16:16:12 GMT -6
Oh so close to a kaboom on the 18z gfs.
A pretty nice area wide snow regardless.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 12:38:14 GMT -6
42 degrees to -1 in 12 hours. Insane winds and heavy snow. 1061 high nosing in. Damn
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 12:34:30 GMT -6
If I remember right, wasn't Uncle UKIE the model of choice last year? Or am I losing it? It is rated as the 2nd most reliable model, slightly trailing the euro.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 12:32:11 GMT -6
12z euro is going to go “Kaboom”
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 11:08:41 GMT -6
WSC you're too fast Uncle Ukie is about to spin up a monster at the end of its run 12z gfs Ensemble members 5, 7, 8, 14, and 19 largely support the UKIE, Icon, GGEM camp. That is a solid 25% of the members, with another handful showing a decent snow in STL. Not bad, but certainly a long way from consensus. Ensemble member 5 would crash the board and a few roofs…
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 10:51:51 GMT -6
12z Ukmet is in the west, stronger camp.
It only goes out to hour 144, but looks ripe for a heavy hit of backside snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 10:23:03 GMT -6
12z gfs is close, but still doesn’t fully come together until east of the region.
It would drop a couple inches of fluff area wide.
12z ggem is too amped, so starts as rain with a several hour period of heavy snow on the backside.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 10:16:25 GMT -6
12z ggem is about to rage.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 10:06:42 GMT -6
12z Icon also has temps -10 F or below on the 23rd.
Just an unbelievable airmass.
The snowpack is huge across Wisconsin. If we get 3+ inches across the region, it will get stupid cold.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 10:03:37 GMT -6
Well, the 12z ICON has this to say about the system late next week There were several wrapped up monsters on the 6z gfs ensembles. Definitely a bit of a trend over the last 12 hours.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2022 6:43:24 GMT -6
This mornings GFS is night and day different from this time yesterday lol Amazing what some meaningful snow cover does to the temperature forecast. Extremely rare to see -15F modeled for STL. Talk about an extreme outcome for Christmas on the 6z gfs.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 15, 2022 17:08:47 GMT -6
18z gfs pretty close to blowing the storm up but ends up just a hair too far east.
A couple huge ensemble members this run.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 15, 2022 14:07:34 GMT -6
12z euro is good for a 1-3 or 2-4 inch type snow next Thursday followed by subzero temperatures (-4 F on the 23rd and a wind chill of -23).
If the storm can close off and pivot I could see a 3-6 inch type snow in the region which would be nice heading into Christmas.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 30, 2022 11:43:52 GMT -6
Apparently the GFS got upgraded today to version 16.3 as of the 12z run? Never heard anything about it. According to Ryan Maue, version 16.3 actually has slightly worse verification scores than the previous version lol.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 29, 2022 12:47:15 GMT -6
Been reading the posts about cold coming around the 5th of December. Is this looking like a dry cold or do you expect some winter storms? Models are showing a storm that will bring rain and potentially severe weather to the region December 5th-7th. That storm brings down a shot of cold air, but no meaningful signal for a winter storm in the extended yet. Models struggled with this massive block and will likely struggle in assessing how long it stays. So it goes, I keep reminding myself it’s not even December yet.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 27, 2022 10:43:05 GMT -6
12z gfs has a big winter storm across the upper Midwest from D8-D10.
Then, it goes full Barney with a 1057 high dropping down. Intense cold for most of the country.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 26, 2022 14:16:27 GMT -6
It looks like there's at least a marginal severe threat Tuesday evening...GFS shows the 60* Td line lifting into the S half of the area with ~500j/kg of SBCAPE developing amidst strong shear. Isolated severe gusts and tornadoes seem possible with this setup. Looking down the road, the pattern still looks mild overall into the first part of December. But the frigid air developing across Canada is going to start to ooze southward into the first full week of the month and the pattern looks loaded for an overrunning event around D10 on the models. I could see an ice storm threat developing if model trends hold. 12z euro certainly shows the beginning of a significant overrunning event at D10.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 25, 2022 11:38:51 GMT -6
Big model battle emerging which will determine the fate of December/early January.
Gfs favors Scandinavian/Barents Sea blocking while the euro favors Greenland blocking.
Gfs would position things well for a SSW and PV split which could produce a 20-40 day period of relatively harsh winter conditions for those east of the Rockies.
In fact, the 12z gfs today is trying to split the vortex around December 8th.
Let’s see which model can sniff this thing out.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 23, 2022 9:55:38 GMT -6
Definitely going to have to watch the severe threat next week. SPC has already defined a Day 7 risk area across the Ark latex region. Behind that system, it's looking cold Still a slight chance for some winter potential next week. Some models and ensemble members show a lead wave drawing the cold down and energy digging more. Definitely looks like a lot of cold building in Northwestern Canada.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 22, 2022 10:26:11 GMT -6
I don't see much if any support for that...most models are still showing the -PNA into December with a ridge near the Aleutian Chain...that's not favorable for cold intrusions this far East, although it could be coaxed down at times. Maybe it will support an overrunning pattern down the road. Meanwhile, it looks like the cut-off solution was right after all...this weekend is looking pretty damp. Once that clears out, the pattern still looks supportive for a potential severe wx episode in the S/Central Plains and possibly the Midwest towards the middle of next week. Looked like the 12z gefs yesterday had a +PNA, -EPO, and -NAO. Also, Autumnal Northern Hemisphere SCE is exceeding all years since 2007, which bodes well for some colder air masses this season. Finally, definitely some signs of a December PV split. I would say some predicting a torch will be walking it back at least towards seasonal and there is potential for it to be quite cold. In fact, the euro control had the coldest air since 2009 for a large chunk of the US the week before Christmas. Obviously, that is cherry-picking, but shows the potential.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 21, 2022 11:00:49 GMT -6
I think the Ukmet has been the best model for our sensible winter season weather last year and so far this year.
Looks like a decent amount of rain is coming (1+ inches) by this weekend.
Next week looks active and quite interesting to me. Lots of energy and plenty of cold building to our northwest. Basically, just need a lead wave to coax it down into position.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 20, 2022 10:36:36 GMT -6
Things look active going into the last week of November.
Probably a cutter with potential severe weather followed by a chance for snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 20, 2022 10:16:24 GMT -6
GFS is still a huge outlier with the cut off development while the GEM/EURO basically have a glorified cold front here with little fanfare in terms of precip. Seems like there's a trend for that storm to delay development until it hits the coast. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the trend for much of the winter, although the weakening La Nina is a potential wild card as it could activate the southern stream as WSC has mentioned. Looks like the 12z gfs just caved.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 19, 2022 15:14:24 GMT -6
What does Euro look like? Some rain/snow showers on Friday.
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