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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 12:50:37 GMT -6
12z euro is onboard with a clipper on the 26th as well. Currently, it would skirt the northeastern metro, but pretty good agreement across the primary models that this feature will exist in the region.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 12:36:03 GMT -6
Can't pick up my big roast and perishables until Christmas Eve. I've got everything else ordered. If we're stuck, looks like frozen lasagne or chili for Christmas. I do not have the time to cook a holiday meal and freeze it before then. Papa Murphy’s pizzas. Just pop them in the oven and call it a day
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 12:30:38 GMT -6
Euro isnt as perfect as the GFS but that's still an extreme run That would shut down the city for awhile Don’t think I make it back to STL or you make it to Chicago Christmas Eve with this run. Unbelievable
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 12:27:22 GMT -6
12z euro has 2-5 inches, extreme winds, and temps crashing to -10 by Friday morning.
Then it goes nuts over Lake Michigan.
Amazing run with even some untapped potential if the bombing out process starts sooner.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 12:21:44 GMT -6
12z euro with a bomb cyclone
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 10:49:08 GMT -6
12z gfs ensembles are pretty good. A lot of big members, but still some complete misses.
So definitely need to be restrained still
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 10:18:36 GMT -6
Obviously 4 days to go, BUT, if this outcome happened snow shower activity would continue through end of Friday with that strong of winds coming NE out of Lake Michigan. You can’t have my snow too lol I was actually wondering how far off the lake winds that strong could push the snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 10:07:26 GMT -6
That is as good of a model run you will ever get outside of the fantasy land 240+ hour range.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 10:04:45 GMT -6
Unbelievable
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 9:36:03 GMT -6
12z Icon is in the north camp The GFS seems like the most consistent/stable model lately...take that for what it's worth. I never bother to look at the ICON myself. I’m not saying it is right, but it has higher verification scores than the gfs and ggem. Reasonable people can argue with how the verification scores are calculated.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 9:29:51 GMT -6
Right now the model camps are split between the GFS/UK southern solutions and the EC/GEM in the northern camp. The EPS mean looks more like the GFS...which is pretty telling. 12z Icon is in the north camp
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 4:48:17 GMT -6
6z gfs ensembles coming in more clustered and beefy.
Ensemble mean is about 5 inches at conservative 10-1 ratios. That’s a very impressive ensemble mean at this range.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 4:09:02 GMT -6
6z gfs is coming in stronger/further west.
Great run for the metro.
Pretty similar to 12z from yesterday.
That should ease some nerves a bit.
Especially, considering the 6z Icon was a swing and a miss.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 22:49:47 GMT -6
00z Ukmet should be a monster
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 22:38:38 GMT -6
Pretty significant variability in the 00z gfs ensembles.
Everything from strong cutter to the west to weak and suppressed.
Plenty of good ones in there too.
With that spread, just need more runs to gain any confidence.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 22:25:40 GMT -6
Models showing an impulse on Christmas Eve and another on the 26th.
So, could be good mood snow after the meat and potatoes as well.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 22:18:36 GMT -6
00z ggem is in the weaker/east camp.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 21:34:49 GMT -6
00z Icon drops a few inches in the metro, but really gets cranking for Indianapolis.
Also has 40-50 mph wind gusts and temps dropping to about -10 F Friday morning.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 20:53:01 GMT -6
Our energy of interest has made its first appearance in the Pacific Northwest on the 00z nam (only goes out 84 hours).
Tomorrow night at this time, we’ll get our first look at what crazy solution it cooks up.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 14:16:24 GMT -6
With what is currently modeled, I would definitely fly in on Wednesday, obviously that could change at any time, but Thursday afternoon looks to be prime time for snow/wind/falling temps Thanks. I'm trying to decide whether to change my flight now, or wait for updated forecasts. But does snow and extreme wind and cold with highly impacted travel seem like a pretty good lock? (regardless of amounts) The only real lock is the extreme cold. 5 days out any modeled storm can “disappear”
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 13:42:34 GMT -6
So, is the Euro too far east or west for St Louis to get hammered ? Northeast. It just bombs out a little too late to produce prolific snow totals. Verbatim, it still produces near blizzard conditions. A huge impact storm
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 13:21:13 GMT -6
Euro definitely not great for St. Louis, 6 hours of snow 1-3” at best then wind and cold Great Lakes storm . The gfs and gem are much better solutions for us down here I would say it’s not great for snow. But overall, it has a couple inches with temps dropping to -8 F and winds gusting to 50-60 mph in STL. That is nuts when you look beyond just snow totals. Certainly, a better track than the Ukmet.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 12:57:02 GMT -6
Euro is onboard with another impulse the day after Christmas.
Lots to be excited about with the 12z model suite.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 12:29:22 GMT -6
Kaboom
12z euro spins up a bomb cyclone
A bit too far east to really hammer the metro, but still a good hit
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 11:07:56 GMT -6
UK swing and a miss. Typically how close are the solutions of the UKMET and EURO? Guessing it varies It is kind of like the nam and gfs. They are more likely to be similar, but definitely can still disagree. I expect the euro to be northwest of the gfs and ggem, but probably southeast of the Ukmet.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 10:51:07 GMT -6
12z Ukmet is too far northwest.
No clean sweep
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 10:36:10 GMT -6
12z ggem has temps at -17 Christmas morning in STL.
Then it has another clipper dropping in Christmas night to top off the snow.
12z gfs bottoms out at -7 on Christmas Eve morning.
The extreme cold is still a huge part of this story.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 10:13:16 GMT -6
Pretty close to an ideal run there at this range.
Nice
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 10:06:50 GMT -6
12z gfs looks close to going kaboom.
1068 mb pressing in lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2022 9:42:46 GMT -6
12z Icon is back in the euro camp.
Pretty good start to the 12z suite.
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