mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 19:42:12 GMT -6
Hwy K. Chris used the perfect analogy. This stuff is like concrete. Wow! What time was that? Dusk. Probably a bit before 7pm
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 19:39:09 GMT -6
Hwy K. Chris used the perfect analogy. This stuff is like concrete.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 19:17:33 GMT -6
wait what did I just agree to....I just saw the word beer. Lmao
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 19:02:15 GMT -6
Beaker owes me a beer if this verifies š
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 17:09:34 GMT -6
Nice band coming down again in Earth city Itās like the little engine that couldā¦
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 12:26:01 GMT -6
4 inches here in Lake St. Louis. Light snow still falling. Looks like metro south will love round two. A little bit for everyone Thatās pretty close to my measurement in OāFallon/Dardenne
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 12:22:42 GMT -6
4 miles from me is heavy snow. I am light sleet. Painful, but excited for tonight I thought you were st.Charles
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 10:43:18 GMT -6
kudos to ofallon streets dept for their hard work in keeping the streets plowed. they came through my culdesac in the padt half hour. of course new snow has covered up their work, but theyll be back. They are a pretty awesome crew I gotta admit! Man, we have pancake flakes flying in our backyard!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 8:14:05 GMT -6
Gap starting to fill in on radar. Snowing cats and dogs here. glad to see youre getting snow too, neighbor. š Yes sir. That snow/mix line must be wider than we thought lol
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 8:09:20 GMT -6
Gap starting to fill in on radar. Snowing cats and dogs here.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 0:48:15 GMT -6
Yes, this I did know! I know thereās a few others on here with that same achievement. How did you get past all the math!? Counted on my fingers. Haha. Me too but that didnāt turn out well for me in the math department
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 0:41:23 GMT -6
Seems we have lots of bored customers waiting for some action with the weather š
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 0:34:55 GMT -6
Yes, this I did know! I know thereās a few others on here with that same achievement. How did you get past all the math!?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 0:29:34 GMT -6
I went to SLU for a year. Not sure if that counts As long as you paid a visit to Humphreyās on a Wednesday night at least once. š
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 2, 2022 0:10:49 GMT -6
Went to SLU as well. Cheers brother Billiken! And yes, during my SLU days, I operated with an hour or less of sleep at times. I need at least 4-5 hours as I creep closer to 40. Tired hits me so much faster lol Got my MA from SLU on very little sleep. Can I be a part of this Billiken lovefest? Haha absolutely! And I think there are many other alumni on here as well (Chris included right?)
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 23:50:00 GMT -6
It amazes me how heās able to function with the little sleep he gets. š¤Æ At SLU, I learned to operate on < 5 hours of sleep. Depending on the situation, I still can nearly 24 years later. Went to SLU as well. Cheers brother Billiken! And yes, during my SLU days, I operated with an hour or less of sleep at times. I need at least 4-5 hours as I creep closer to 40. Tired hits me so much faster lol
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 23:40:00 GMT -6
dude how are you awake still He never gets much sleep during events like these. It amazes me how heās able to function with the little sleep he gets. š¤Æ
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 23:36:53 GMT -6
Groupel definitely mixing in. I see it landing on my car and quickly melting. Yellow on the radar right over us may be the reason. Not sure if this is ahead of schedule or not.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 23:26:17 GMT -6
I'd say that's pretty close given downstream reports from Wood River area of 13-15". The main heavy snow band in 82 ran from Red Bud to Carlyle with STL on the NW fringe. The airport still recorded 4 hours of TSSN and near blizzard conditions. 4 hours of thunder snow is absurd. Probably had pancake flakes Pancake flakes lol. Love it! If this storm produces, letās hope we skip the hamsterās and go straight to pancakes!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 23:19:09 GMT -6
Coming down hard in O Fallon. Few pellets mixed in. Temp 34*
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 22:45:05 GMT -6
Heavy sleet in Bowling Green according to !AccuNotWx!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 22:21:29 GMT -6
36* and still dropping fast
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 21:52:17 GMT -6
Temp dropping considerably imby
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 21:27:00 GMT -6
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 21:01:34 GMT -6
.UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 A broad area of precipitation stretches from interior sections of central Illinois to southwest Missouri this evening. Coverage and arrival time of the precipitation is in good agreement with expectations so far. Automated surface observations show sub-freezing air making progress into portions of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois. Rain transitioned to a brief period of freezing rain/sleet around Quincy before changing to all snow around the 02z hour. Reports of all snow in Hannibal also provide ground truth to the advancing cold air. What has been evident over the last 3-4 hours is that the cold air has run about 20-25 miles further southeast than hourly forecast trends previously depicted. Updates have been made to reflect this trend with the potential that FZRA/PL could be 1-2 hours ahead of schedule, should this trend win out. The only question remains the warm nose aloft and how long it holds/erodes tonight into the morning period. This trend will need to be monitored through the night, as any deviation will have the greatest impact on accumulations near the transition zone (southeast MO/southwest IL). Maples Wow, Hannibal is all snow? Thatās very encouraging.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 20:23:43 GMT -6
Could just be the NAM being the NAM. GFS still on board. GFS doesnt come out for an hour and a half The NAM pulled further north and less amplified with last run and GFS stayed put. Iām not stating that Iām seeing the latest run.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 20:17:46 GMT -6
Could just be the NAM being the NAM. GFS still on board.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 20:12:15 GMT -6
NAM says... wagons north for wave 1. Yeah, thatās too north for comfort. Yikes.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 20:06:32 GMT -6
Nonsense neighbor! My forecast for this hood is 11ā. Lol maybe. not sure we will get 11. im pretty sure we will get something bw 6 and 10. Iām not sure either but Iām latching onto an earlier transition and the 2nd wave producing for us. I might be overly optimistic since we will be teetering on that mix/snow line with the initial wave. This is me banking for us to be in the heart of that 2nd wave.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 19:43:44 GMT -6
Most models are more subdued with the LLJ compared to the aggressive NAM but still support 30-35mph gusts during the daylight hours Thursday...close enough. thank you sir. going with conservative expectations myself for 2 rsns. ive made no secret that im concerned abt a higher proportion of sleet, so thats concern 1.my other concern is that we dont hv a good enough handle on the tracking of subsequent waves. they tend to track further south than progged before the first wave, so my thinking is subsequent waves will treat the southerners more than thought. hence 6 to 10 for me. the 10 is a just in case im wrong abt the track of the subsequent waves, but honestly south county and jeffco may be closer to 10 and thinking i may be closer to 6. Nonsense neighbor! My forecast for this hood is 11ā. Lol
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