mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 19:37:43 GMT -6
It’s been a while since we’ve had so many on this forum. It would be great if everyone can be understanding of the full situation and not just your own. Be respectful of everyone and if someone comments and you disagree, be understanding and kind at least. This shouldn’t be a difficult ask.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 19:27:34 GMT -6
Since I retired last spring, school closings don't mean much to me anymore!😁 Maybe not to you but they mean a lot to a lot of people lol
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 18:07:19 GMT -6
Ft.Zumwalt has already cancelled school for tomorrow. I’m sure many others have done the same. And Thursday. Dang.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 18:05:45 GMT -6
Ft.Zumwalt has already cancelled school for tomorrow. I’m sure many others have done the same.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 17:02:52 GMT -6
Brtn, check your dm when you get a sec. Thanks!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 15:38:54 GMT -6
Thanks. Yeah I went ahead and looked at it. Thought there would be more discussion about it. It’s not what I would classify as a “nasty” model run though. So confused about the nasty part.[/quote] Literally half of the modeled snow output along 44/64 and South is gone in one model run and you can't see why the folks who live there would consider that nasty? Awful? Unless you have lived South of 44 for at least a decade. You have no idea what getting screwed in these snow storms is like. For everyone ONE time things truly bust where you live. There is at least FIVE where we live. [/quote] This is the part where I find it pointless to converse with you because I can feel the anger through your words. Take a deep breath buddy.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 15:28:01 GMT -6
Thanks. Yeah I went ahead and looked at it. Thought there would be more discussion about it. It’s not what I would classify as a “nasty” model run though. So confused about the nasty part. Depends where you live and what your (maybe false) expectations were after those juicy morning model runs. No false expectations from me. This forecast has been 7-13 IMBY and although less beefier than earlier runs, forecast hasn’t really changed much. And it hasn’t changed at all from Chris’ forecast.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 15:22:04 GMT -6
18z NAM
12z NAM, same time frame
Thanks. Yeah I went ahead and looked at it. Thought there would be more discussion about it. It’s not what I would classify as a “nasty” model run though. So confused about the nasty part.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 15:14:56 GMT -6
That's a pretty nasty change on the nam. It also cuts the duration way down as well. The hires nam is even worse. Who knows. At least the Euro,ukmet, and GFS are much further South. It still paints 6-10 for the entire metro. Nasty? So confused.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 14:55:21 GMT -6
That's a pretty nasty change on the nam. It also cuts the duration way down as well. The hires nam is even worse. Who knows. At least the Euro,ukmet, and GFS are much further South. Can you explain?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 14:48:53 GMT -6
I know we haven’t had a storm of this magnitude in a long time. But man, I can’t help but point out our storied history of sleet eating into totals. Obviously, round II looks to be juiced and plenty of cold air with it for a nice prolonged mod/hvy snow event all day Thursday. If we can transition early AM tomorrow and stay that way, this could be a whopper! And I assume this is why we’re seeing a wider range of totals (like 7-13”).
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 11:08:58 GMT -6
920 mentioned this earlier, but the GFS's snow depth product is still showing big numbers in Arkansas. There is no way that is right. My guess there is a bug with this particular field. I don't think that necessarily means it isn't useful especially in the areas where you've done an analysis and determined it to be realistic at least given the QPF and thermal profile being forecasted. I do think its snow depth forecast for St. Louis is too high, but I think that has more to do with the timing of the QPF and colder air. What is the NWS forecasting for that area in AK?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 10:55:44 GMT -6
I vote no to bringing back what’s his name that used to video himself forecasting and update snowfall map totals. Was his name Matt? Mwitt! Come back! I didn’t say his name for the record 🤣🤣
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 10:54:39 GMT -6
Here’s the max surface to 500mb column temps compared across a few models valid at 6pm tomorrow I’m theory, anything north of that 0C line should be all snow The one that really sticks out as a cold outlier is the GFS This gives me anxiety watching it. It’s like watching a very even battle of tug of war.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 10:48:50 GMT -6
One thought that crosses my mind with storms like these is the amount of little kids turned weather weenies that will be born this week I vote no to bringing back what’s his name that used to video himself forecasting and update snowfall map totals. Was his name Matt?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 10:39:36 GMT -6
Ok... this may be the last of my true updates before the storm since I have to get my self gathered for several long days. I have made my first adjustments to the forecast totals... only slightly increasing totals.... 1 inch across the board. 10-15 north.... 7 to 10 for metro (this includes sleet) and 3 to 6 down south. Sleet is a big factor for me. I've watched far too many times as forecasts have adjusted rapidly to big big #s only to see something more realistic take place. The wildcard will be tomorrow AM for the metro. We change to all snow... then my storm totals will need an update. We stay mostly sleet... Im sitting pretty good. Thanks man. Your numbers perfectly align to the idea of sleet getting in the way of some otherwise bigger numbers. Hopefully this plays out to our advantage for once!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 10:30:45 GMT -6
Ok... this may be the last of my true updates before the storm since I have to get my self gathered for several long days. I have made my first adjustments to the forecast totals... only slightly increasing totals.... 1 inch across the board. 10-15 north.... 7 to 10 for metro (this includes sleet) and 3 to 6 down south. Thanks Chris. I like the numbers. Are you taking a slightly conservative approach with the potential for sleet contamination or do you expect a full transition to snow without worrying about sleet in the rear view?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 10:15:31 GMT -6
Both. Plenty of dynamical cooling going on where the lift in intense. There are some great lift up through 44 heading right into the metro early Thursday morning. 2" per hour stuff. Temps in teens. Winds whipping. It does question the potential of the B word followed by the W word…
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 10:06:04 GMT -6
Seems we’re continuing to get colder through each run. Are the models depicting a collapse of that warm layer due to the cold air arriving faster or because it anticipates pockets of heavy precip to overrun it?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 9:51:17 GMT -6
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 9:33:23 GMT -6
11 years ago to the day... Payback time. I found the bufkit files for the GHD 1.0 storm. You're right the NAM is about the same between then and today. Can you share a link or post it on here?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 1, 2022 9:27:22 GMT -6
The NAM - Sweet Jesus! Holy Mother of Snows!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2022 22:00:54 GMT -6
The 00z NAM is ever so slightly colder at 15z Wednesday and shows an incredible burst of heavy sleet and snow right over the metro between 6am and 10am. A deep, iothermal layer hugging the freeze line with a surface temp in the mid 20s... that will be brutally heavy snow... as evidence by the quick 2-4 inches it prints out over metro STL. If that happens... wow... 6am is game time fellas!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2022 19:43:50 GMT -6
All at Lambert I’m assuming. The spot that receives the least amount of snow for every metro storm lol.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2022 16:22:24 GMT -6
Power outages are going to be a massive concern I assume.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 31, 2022 16:19:49 GMT -6
I'd imagine an advisory should about cover it. 🤣
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 30, 2022 20:16:41 GMT -6
If you live in: These two cities are 40 miles North North East & 60 MILES NW OF STL Brighton Troy, MO THESE CITIES ARE GONNA GET 8-14" Moscow Mills Jerseyville Hardin Calhoun county (including... swamp lake, NUTWOOD 12 Mile Island Winfield Litchfield Montgomery Gentry City So yeah that's the cities off the top of my head that are in the Goldilocks zone. Then there is: Warrenton WINTERZZZZVILLE OFFALON, mo Saint "EXAGGERATION" PETERS Brussels NORTH SAINT CHUCKY GRAFTON Pier MARQUETTE COON CREEK ROAD ALTON EASTERN ALTON WOOD RIVER(STINKY TOWN) FLORISSANT NORTH CHEATERFELD. THOSE Cities are like gods looking down on the losers in RAINSBURG The folks North of 70 have a winter storm watch level icy event(sleet) coming... They also have the MOST CHERISHED(HEAVY SNOW WARNING) coming... Yeah I am jealous. This sucks I am playing nice. Anyone up North enjoy the event. My people's down here know those bloated totals on the Southern edge are 80 percent to high. This is how I'm coping with the huge disappointment that's coming Lmao… I gotta save this post. Epic!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 30, 2022 13:23:58 GMT -6
Im toying with numbers now.... First settling on sleet totals which I think will be quite high...especially south of 70. The 25th to 75th ranges definitely show the potential and the potential pitfalls. It's sort of like calculus teying to monkey with these lol. Like I've always heard, being a Met means you have to be REALLY good at math!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 25, 2022 12:59:15 GMT -6
But, none of the ones above 6 inches happened in February, which I believe was the original statement from Bdgwx. OOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!! Nevermind I thought that thin squall we got slammed with back in (2009ish?) was in February. A very narrow but continuous feed of heavy snow that only impacted areas of downtown and points west of the metro. I'm sure that's on this list but I measured 11" in Maryland Heights at that time. Maybe it was in January.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 16, 2022 20:08:12 GMT -6
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