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Post by weatherj on Nov 11, 2023 23:00:52 GMT -6
I remember 09-10 being highly annoying with all the bigger systems missing to our S/SE and of course the award winning 99 rant worthy christmas eve monster cutter that moved NNW. It was cold overall and we had several clippers that brought 1-2" type events which was nice, but definitely nothing to write home about in our neck of the woods. IIRC though on a national scale it was a blockbuster winter season. I believe that winter had an El Nino factoring in that really gave parts of the S and the NE a huge season. The 10-11 winter season was much more action packed locally with the moderate/strong La Nina coupled with blocking in play. We had significantly more snow overall than 09-10 and some memorable events with the severe wx outbreak on NYE plus the sleetfest GHD storm no one in the immediate metro wants to remember.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 2, 2023 17:39:00 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris!
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Post by weatherj on Oct 30, 2023 20:48:55 GMT -6
Great picture’s …… I have my hopes up for a good winter:) I feel the same way. I know there's the saying " it can always be worse " but I do believe it can't get much worse than last winter, lol. The only thing that was a standout for me last year was the powerful arctic blast a few days before Christmas.
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Post by weatherj on Oct 8, 2023 8:41:12 GMT -6
I would take a 2002-03 type of El Nino pattern again except with the WAA portion of the Dec 23rd '02 storm further north . Our goods came on xmas eve.
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Post by weatherj on Sept 2, 2023 13:22:35 GMT -6
Happy birthday woogie!
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Post by weatherj on Aug 3, 2023 6:25:39 GMT -6
It looks like the immediate metro definitely escaped the significant amounts of rain to the W/SW and far NE. I was on the SW fringe of the NE band and had almost 2.5" with much much more to my NE. Areas to my SW saw very little to virtually nothing.
Edit: Places on the N side of town are reporting over 3".
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Post by weatherj on Jul 7, 2023 8:27:01 GMT -6
Thanks for the birthday wishes guys.
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Post by weatherj on Jul 2, 2023 15:50:47 GMT -6
Officially 2.65" for the 3 day total over here. I'll take it.
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Post by weatherj on Jul 1, 2023 9:24:40 GMT -6
The sun has been out (almost full sunshine) for about an hour and a half over here. I'm grateful I missed the main storm to my S yesterday evening, but around 11 pm another storm came right into Salem with 50-60 mph gusts easily..I'm not sure if it was t-storm warned or not because I was in bed and didn't feel like charging up the phone. I kept power thankfully, but numerous smaller limbs are down and a few bigger ones although no major damage like the unlucky folks to my S/SW yesterday evening.
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Post by weatherj on Jun 30, 2023 21:29:53 GMT -6
Damage in St.Libory is awful……my uncles farm lost 3 buildings…… a two car garage was gone down to the foundation….. looks like a hurricane hit the town My sympathy on the loss of your uncles farm and those who suffered damage in St Libory. How hard did Marissa get hit if it did?
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Post by weatherj on Jun 29, 2023 13:17:45 GMT -6
Naturally with the derecho now east of the metro, it's now finally making it's almost due south turn as it gets into eastern Illinois, almost following last night's MCS, just a bit farther south. I can attest to this because it looked like the line would stay just NNE of me here in Salem, but a fairly strong southerly surge put me in lots of heavy rain. Luckily the winds were only about 40 mph. Edit: Over 1" of rain now and still raining.
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Post by weatherj on Jun 6, 2023 8:29:36 GMT -6
The transition from La Nina to El Nino is moving along quickly. Realtime ENSO 3.4 is over +0.8 now. There is a lot of dynamic model guidance including CFS, ECMWF, and BoM (Australia) that are saying this one has the potential to be strong (>= 1.5) or even super (>= 2.0). I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but if it goes super (>= 2.0) our analogs are 2015/16, 1997/98, 1982/83, and 1965/66 all of which were "meh" to terrible in terms of the winter season snowfall. I know it's far far away, but I can't say I'm surprised in the least if that is the eventual outcome unfortunately. On another note and possibly a brighter side, it can't get much worse or boring (minus the surprise november snow depth for some east of the river and the pre christmas arctic blast) than this past winter...lol.
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Post by weatherj on May 8, 2023 13:09:35 GMT -6
I remember that day well even though it missed me to the S. They have the year wrong though..it was 2009.
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Post by weatherj on May 8, 2023 7:04:59 GMT -6
Almost 2 inches of rain has fallen here since 4:30 pm yesterday afternoon.
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Post by weatherj on May 7, 2023 12:54:58 GMT -6
Happy birthday Reb
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Post by weatherj on May 7, 2023 8:24:14 GMT -6
Outflow boundary from last night's storms across IL is oozing into the Metro from the NE...looks like a weak MCV lifting towards the region from OK may interact with that later this afternoon and fire some scattered storms. Models have 4-5000j/kg CAPE but relatively weak bulk shear so pulse severe storms are possible. Short-range models favor the IL side for these. Outflow boundary came through here about 7:45 am with a very cool east-northeast breeze and low clouds moving west-southwest. There wasn't a drop of rain till about 9:00 am when a brief moderate shower popped.
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Post by weatherj on Apr 20, 2023 1:16:52 GMT -6
Tornado was probably moving northwest prior to dissipation. IIRC, the 2007 Greensburg, KS EF-5 tornado moved almost due N and then took a left (NW) turn before dissipating.
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Post by weatherj on Apr 4, 2023 10:40:19 GMT -6
What's crazy about the EF1 tornado that hit Salem on Friday evening is the path was only about 2 blocks north of which another tornado took in April of 1996.That tornado was an EF2 and damaged the fairgrounds heavily. Very odd when they take nearly the same path despite many years in between.
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Post by weatherj on Apr 1, 2023 19:30:42 GMT -6
NWS confirmed an EF1 with winds of 105 mph Friday night here in town. As much as I feel for anyone who suffered any damages, I'm very happy to say that there were no injuries or fatalities. That same cell which moved into marion county later ended up producing the TOR-E for Robinson, IL. Major damage from a multi-vortex tornado resulted.
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Post by weatherj on Apr 1, 2023 6:14:52 GMT -6
Judging from my own view of driving through the area hardest hit here on the south side of town, I am convinced it was a tornado that came through that stretch. A very well defined west-southwest to east-northeast damage path with trees snapped, multiple structures damaged, and Casey's roof and sign were damaged. I am hearing of a possibile fatality, but that has not been confirmed and pray it is not correct.
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Post by weatherj on Mar 31, 2023 21:10:51 GMT -6
Nasty looking rogue supercell SE of Effingham. What a day... That's the same one that pulsed on and off from north of Ste Gen, right over the top of me, and then finally put something down along I-64 in Washington County.
I'm pretty sure judging by the pictures here on the S side of Salem, IL a tornado touched down. Structural and tree damage. I'm fine right where I live, but no power.
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Post by weatherj on Mar 8, 2023 6:36:19 GMT -6
Moderate to heavy sleet with even a few flakes mixed in right now at 41*.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 28, 2023 13:35:17 GMT -6
The 2010 "Octobomb" in the upper midwest was 955.2 mb in Minnesota. I know we are talking about SLP records locally, but I'll never forget that system either.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 27, 2023 4:38:01 GMT -6
Euro still looks solid I was just looking though, and it prints out over 3" of QPF downtown but only has 7-8" of snow (positive snow depth change). That's a lot of rain or messy mix The Euro almost looks like it took a very slight jog SE vs. previous runs. The 6z GFS remains further NW.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 26, 2023 14:38:01 GMT -6
My biggest concern is if these sub 980 mb SLP solutions are correct, we'll see continued NW shifts in future runs. I'm not just saying this for the S and E sections, but definitely for the metro as well. I believe a slightly weaker (higher 980's) SLP would be preferable.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 9, 2023 10:59:46 GMT -6
I'm sure there will be a blizzard next week and I hope Des Moines enjoys it, as they usually do with their annual blizzard. We will receive more unneeded rain. I'm so excited I could puke. Unfortunately, it wouldn't surprise me if wsc gets screwed in Chicago yet again as well.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 9, 2023 10:24:39 GMT -6
I noticed the GOOFUS2.0 was showing something big brewing towards D10. It’ll go south. I can definitely see why you guys up there feel the way you do. It really seems like central IL has been in no man's land the last 5+ seasons. Granted, it's nothing to write home about just N and S of you either, but I feel like SPI to DEC and eastward to the IN border has really been hosed. A couple of the storms that got the metro good a few years ago (January 2019) always seemed to have too much dry air entrainment over central IL.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 1, 2023 17:13:26 GMT -6
I remember this storm well ….. Freeburg 15 miles up the road had 5 inches and we got absolutely nothing in Marissa lol Did it stay rain in Marissa? We even got 6 inches of snow over here after the switch from rain. I do remember that storm did have a fairly dramatic straight N/S gradient though.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 30, 2023 16:01:53 GMT -6
Just another waste of a good cold airmass!! This winter that at early stages looked like one to remember...is going to be one to remember down the toilet drain!!Ugghh. I'm not so sure it ever looked to be phenomenal right here. Most of the outlooks were saying we would be on the west edge of the cold and most of the action would be to our east. That certainly hasn't panned out either with nearly all of the EC cities being snowless. I think I'd be more bummed about missing the precip to the south if it were a 6-8 in snow. An inch or 2 of snow/half inch of sleet and ice...no thanks. Overall, I do agree this winter has some serious making up to do if it's even going to go into the "decent" category.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 26, 2023 10:52:20 GMT -6
Models are still all over the place with the energy next week. Seems like the trend is for the stuff early in the week to come out flatter and more energy to be held back. The 12z GEM actually spins up a big southern low late next week that clobbers the area. Actual arctic air to interact with this time hopefully.
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