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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 16:25:55 GMT -6
We want the apex of the cold air to spill down on the western side of the Great Plains. It will encourage cyclogenesis further south and west like what the GFS is currently showing. I'm hoping the apex does not come in through Missouri like what the Euro is showing as that will encourage cyclogenesis to further north and east. Yeah..I definitely believe it's either here or east. I think it would be nearly impossible for it to go too far west for any portion the CWA based on that intense HP.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 16:18:09 GMT -6
That's a shutdown storm for over here in the eastern CWA as well. Even the far southerners see 8-10 "...wow. The only area it looks to be screwing over now with the slightly more intense/westerly track is central/eastern IN and OH.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 13:28:56 GMT -6
I'm just so glad no one is in danger of icing with this. The impacts will be far reaching for sure, but I couldn't even imagine a significant icing event and power outages with the conditions that will follow the storm.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 12:38:25 GMT -6
The Euro is a step in the right direction with the overall picture (for more snow/stronger system). That being said if it was only the snow and not over the holiday most would agree. The combined impacts may make most think it's not a step in the right direction.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 1:20:17 GMT -6
Thanks for that 920. As stated by many earlier, the extreme temps and windchills will make this a rather unprecedented event for these parts. Adding in just 2 or 3 inches of snow would up the ante even more. Quite dangerous and potentially life threatening if proper preparation is not adhered to.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 1:05:22 GMT -6
It looks like it does deepen a lot more once it gets into the great lakes region.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 0:26:17 GMT -6
I don't have full access to the Euro, but from pivotal weather's site it looks like the Euro would be quite strong with the SLP in central IN at hour 120. Someone with more access can fill in the blanks. I can't tell where the SLP tracks from 96 to 120 in getting there, but it certainly looks good from that ending position though and once again looks like winds would be crazy.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 17, 2022 13:47:22 GMT -6
So, is the Euro too far east or west for St Louis to get hammered ? Northeast. It just bombs out a little too late to produce prolific snow totals. Verbatim, it still produces near blizzard conditions. A huge impact storm Thanks. I know the focus isn't huge totals as much as the impacts from the bitter cold and wind.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 17, 2022 13:39:36 GMT -6
So, is the Euro too far east or west for St Louis to get hammered ?
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Post by weatherj on Dec 17, 2022 11:09:41 GMT -6
UK swing and a miss. Typically how close are the solutions of the UKMET and EURO? Guessing it varies Last night the Euro was southeast of the Ukmet I believe, so it likely varies. I have seen those two models in agreement quite often though.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 17, 2022 10:17:54 GMT -6
The GFS run does look great areawide though. Rain nowhere near close to anyone in the entire CWA. It takes the SLP from N Mississippi to SE Indiana. A little wiggle room west would be ok, but not too much..lol. Temps start in the teens in the west and the mid-upper 20's in the east and crash from there.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 17, 2022 10:10:32 GMT -6
Hopefully the low track’s further further south and east, the euro and icon low going right over us is never a good outcome. Basically some light post frontal snow That's what I'm worried about in a powerful phased bomb situation. The western CWA would be in good shape still, but the metro east probably not so much. I am getting confused a bit though. Is it a NW to SE super clipper that was talked about earlier or a phased bomb? It's the same 2 ideas for the same storm depending on evolution I guess.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 17, 2022 5:25:11 GMT -6
6z gfs is a step back in the right direction. It even has a “bonus” clipper on Christmas to round things out. Normally I'd be worried about a storm cutting too far west and screwing the eastern part of the CWA, but in this case with such huge cold rapidly being advected in I would think everyone gets at least the ground covered. Time will tell as I know we still don't know where the storm will track just yet or even if it will be amped.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 24, 2022 18:38:42 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving to all who were able to have it today. The same goes to everyone else who may have had theirs before today or had to delay and are having their Thanksgiving this weekend. I'm hoping we have a couple blockbuster powerhouse storms to watch this winter. Lets avoid looking great 72 hours out only to shift northwest 24-48 hours within..haha.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 15, 2022 9:12:37 GMT -6
I'm in downtown St. Louis. There's nothing on the ground or trees here though it could have already melted off of course. I could tell the areas that got hit hard Saturday from western clinton and st clair counties. Many areas still had at least 2+ inches of snow on the ground even though some of that could have been some new snowfall. At home ( Salem ) it's all gone and once I got west of Fairview Heights by about 5 miles nothing there either.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 15, 2022 0:11:18 GMT -6
All elevated and grass surfaces have a decent coating of snow on them now. Can’t beat two accumulating snow events by mid November That is very true. I don't believe November of 2018 or 2019 had two accumulating events. I believe you have to go back to November of 2014 for that.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 14, 2022 22:24:40 GMT -6
HRRR has really beefed up snow totals just south of downtown…. Showing a couple of inches …. The plot thickens lol lol...I do agree. I'm not holding my breath, but a couple inches even in the S and E could be doable with latest trends.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 13, 2022 8:53:49 GMT -6
I have some snow left here...about an inch or so melted off yesterday, but everything is still nice and white. The jackpot was just to my west, hopefully you guys to the west and north of the metro get a good ground covering of at least an inch +.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 12, 2022 9:49:02 GMT -6
Stupid easterners too I guess...lol.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 12, 2022 9:48:31 GMT -6
My total looks to be 3 inches on the mark. Very nice early season snow to say the least.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 12, 2022 6:07:30 GMT -6
It's pouring snow now over here in Salem, IL. Easily over an inch now and headed towards 2 shortly at this rate. Certainly not going to be here what it was to my west, but still absolutely beautiful for this early in the season! I'm hoping for you guys to the west of the metro that saw barely a flake get in on the action Monday night if that comes to fruition.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 12, 2022 4:42:30 GMT -6
Not a darn flake in Ballwin. Yup. Winter is definitely here. Geez...I was hoping west of St Louis and out by 99 would have got something. It sure does sound like the NWS morning disco is upping the ante for the Monday night system.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 12, 2022 4:09:11 GMT -6
Really coming down good here now. Impressive for you guys to the west and southwest! Hopefully coming my way in term of amounts.
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Post by weatherj on Jul 26, 2022 13:37:29 GMT -6
A little over 4 " here for a storm total with light rain still falling. I've had over 10 inches of rain total in the last 2 weeks and to think several of you had that in 8 hrs or less! It's unreal the amount of rain that fell in the tight WNW-ESE axis this morning. My heart goes out to all of the flash flood victims that have any damage to property and/or loved ones caught in such an unprecedented event. Let's hope tonight's heavy rain axis is displaced a bit further NE this time around as models seem to hint at.
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Post by weatherj on Jul 20, 2022 19:14:19 GMT -6
Back in the 80s and 90s... the heat waves always had haze. Forecast would be hazy, hot and humid. Don't see much haze nowadays... air seems to be much cleaner. That one totally slipped my mind, but you are right. I remember the word hazy in the mix during the heat waves back in the day.
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Post by weatherj on Jul 18, 2022 6:58:42 GMT -6
I haven't been on really the last couple of weeks, but now that I read back..thank you for the birthday shout out back on the 6th reb.
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Post by weatherj on Jul 17, 2022 19:32:35 GMT -6
Missed the rain to the north and south this evening……. That's the case here mostly too. However, I picked up 3.23" between last night and midday so I have absolutely zero room to complain.
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Post by weatherj on Jul 17, 2022 7:44:45 GMT -6
The location of origination looks like it panned out, but the axis seems to have moved W-E instead of WNW-ESE like expected.
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Post by weatherj on Jul 17, 2022 7:05:04 GMT -6
It looks like Chris's concern about the southwest counties was validated, unfortunately.
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Post by weatherj on Jul 17, 2022 5:27:50 GMT -6
And again this morning the lion's share of the rain seems to be going by to the north of the metro area and is heading towards Hannibal and Quincy. How does that keep happening? I guess more development south is possible, but I agree. I'm very lucky to have got what I did over here. Nearly 3 inches of rain fell.
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