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Post by weatherj on Jan 25, 2023 7:27:30 GMT -6
Sitting at around 2 inches……so much for being in the sweet spot down this way …… another kick in the stomach….. if it wasn’t for the surprise Nov snow we would be on quite a streak lol That's saying something because your 2 inches sounds like it out did others within the metro I thought would get blasted....man.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 25, 2023 7:02:50 GMT -6
Eyeballing around 3 inches here in Salem, IL. Snowing moderate to heavy.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 25, 2023 2:23:29 GMT -6
Heavy snow right now in Salem, IL
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Post by weatherj on Jan 24, 2023 9:14:52 GMT -6
I have a feeling the snowfall map will end up looking like a chef's knife, with the blade pointing SW. Rain will likely eat into the snow totals on the SE once you cross the MS River. Hope I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised. If a subtle SE shift is realized as some of the guidance suggests, that would alleviate it to a degree. It remains to be seen though of course.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 24, 2023 8:17:36 GMT -6
A quick look at the 12z NAM shows a subtle shift SE closer in line with the other guidance but still very solid for the metro. 500mb vort max tracks just north of the bootheel to KIND with a closed circulation overhead...about as good as it gets. That COULD save the SE zones from mixing with rain if it's legit.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 24, 2023 7:19:10 GMT -6
No changes to make based on the overnight data. I'm really happy with the forecast at this point. Are there questions? Sure. Most notably, I'm concerned about rain mixing with the snow southeast of the Kaskaskia River based on the track of the 850mb low. I'm just about done looking at new model data because now we are to the point that it's too easy to get worked up over every small fluctuation that ends up being little more than noise. The big picture weather features are all where they need to be for a solid snow event for our area. There has even been a little better indication of mesoscale banding in some of the hires data...so that will likely play a part as well. Steady as she goes! I have mixing with rain concerns over here, hopefully that stays just a pinch to my SE. If it does mix with rain hopefully it's dumped at least 4 inches of snow by then.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 23, 2023 22:11:56 GMT -6
February 15-16, 2015, is why I’ll forever be skeptical. Worst. Snowstorm. Ever. That one had a wild gradient. We managed 6 inches here, but you guys to the W/SW got truly hosed. Centralia had about 1.5" less than Salem and by the time you got SW of Nashville there wasn't much more than 2 inches if that.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 22, 2023 10:38:21 GMT -6
That follows Chris's GYB path perfectly atm.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 22, 2023 8:56:34 GMT -6
The 12z NAM is ideal for almost the entire area.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 22, 2023 4:22:15 GMT -6
If the latest runs are to come to fruition, that's going to be way low. I know there are plenty of factors to consider and the potential for melting and compaction, but if the GFS/NAM are right this won't be weakening as it goes by. As always, the NWS is playing it conservative and will follow the data and update which is the smartest move. It will be interesting to see the 12z data as full sampling should occur by then. Maybe the Ukmet and Euro will trend stronger as well.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 22, 2023 4:05:30 GMT -6
The 6z GFS continues its consistency as well. It really hammers the S/E counties, but feel it would be expanded NW to include the metro as well. It seems as though the sharp NW edge is starting to show itself.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 22, 2023 2:46:28 GMT -6
It looks like the 6z NAM is quite nice for the area. I know we are still too far out for its reliability, but very consistent with its 00z run.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 22, 2023 1:42:31 GMT -6
A light dusting on the grass here. That EPS does look good as does the GEFS. I think everyone else crapped out for the night, lol. Overall I think trends are looking good for 72 hrs out.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 22, 2023 0:30:21 GMT -6
Snowing decent here now. The Euro looks pretty good for the whole cwa to my untrained eye. I would think the heaviest qpf would need adjusted 25-50 miles NW. It seems nearly every model wants to hug the axis tighter to the features than what would normally be seen.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 21, 2023 22:53:04 GMT -6
It looks like it has an enhanced band right along I-70 in IL of 4-6". I know that's obviously not to be taken at face value, but I wonder if it's suggesting such banding somewhere within the CWA is likely.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 20, 2023 0:46:44 GMT -6
I'll take the Ukmet/Euro solutions tonight and lock it in..lol. It's not that I don't like the GFS/GEM, but those are awful close for the S/E counties with the R/S line. Lots of time for things to get sorted out of course, but all of the runs tonight would hammer the metro good ( minus the hopefully out there on its own ICON ). I feel we all deserve a good plastering for our patience. I also agree that for the changes with the blog it's probably in the best interest for a variety of reasons.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 12, 2023 8:26:37 GMT -6
That se ridge...that has to go for us to have storms in our wheelhouse. Otherwise, cutters The SE ridge is needed to a least a weak degree though, correct? I know if it's too strong then cutters would be a problem, but if it is totally wiped out wouldn't that tend to lead to suppression?
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Post by weatherj on Dec 23, 2022 11:10:01 GMT -6
gfs has temps right around 60 from 6am thursday thru saturday. Yuck. Cold for 4 days, followed by warm for 3-4 weeks. Always. Strong Polar Vortex and warm Siberia (essentially our refrigerator). Bad recipe for us. Hopefully, we can get another stretched PV event by mid January to end the pain. How much snow did you wind up with there wsc?
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Post by weatherj on Dec 23, 2022 7:29:57 GMT -6
Nam is pretty bullish with QPF Monday. Drops 3-5” in western CWA. 1-3 eastern side. Will be fighting some very dry air to begin with. 6z GFS looks very good for that clipper. It's a bit further east than the NAM, but really gives most of the area a good little snowfall.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 22, 2022 23:46:41 GMT -6
If we get in on the clipper Monday it would at least be a bit more enjoyable. Temps will be in the 20's.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 22, 2022 23:13:44 GMT -6
Lost power about 30 minutes ago. Report of power lines down on Rte 13. Not sure which side of town. Glad I still have the fire going. Oh man....I hope everyone is as prepared as you are. That's terrible to happen at this time. Praying it comes back on asap.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 22, 2022 23:10:30 GMT -6
I'm wondering if we will have another attack of arctic air in about a month. It seems the overall pattern this winter is to repeat..hopefully not as bad as this one. As has been said, this is only interesting from a meteorological standpoint. There are so many negative impacts we'd rather not go through.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 22, 2022 20:37:33 GMT -6
I'm almost certain we have 2 inches over here. It's nearly impossible to get an accurate measurement as we've discussed, but I see no grass at all now. To me that's usually a good indicator you are at 2".
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Post by weatherj on Dec 22, 2022 14:30:29 GMT -6
Need 2" today to reach 10" on the season. Man I thought that was in the bag. And I thought wrong. I'm surprised that there isn't more of a slight slowing down/pivot on the east side of the river.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 22, 2022 14:14:03 GMT -6
It might not make it above 0C tomorrow. We will have near -30C 850mb temps from this evening through tomorrow late morning. So brutal. But could be worse. At least nome of us are Sam Bankman Fried. Who is going to spend the rest of his life in prison. The new and improved Gen Z Madoff. I'm pretty sure it wont be above 32F tomorrow too....
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Post by weatherj on Dec 21, 2022 7:03:04 GMT -6
On approximately this date 13 years ago, one of our posters made what I consider to be one of the funniest and best rants of this board. If any of you haven't followed the blog since its birth or saw the repost several years ago, you may not have ever seen it. Snowman99's Christmas Eve storm of 2009 " Merry Muddy Christmas " rant : I have followed this storm for the last 9 days. It looked so promising for a good part of that time. Iowa has had a blizzard this winter as has Nebraska, NE Kansas, and Wisconsin. The east coast just had a historic snowstorm. Houston had 1-4 inches of snow in early December..earliest snow ever. Valdez, Alaska had almost 6 FEET of snow last week. It has 'snowed' here 3 or 4 times, with a grand total of a half inch here in Union. There are blizzard watches for parts of Kansas right now, watch the winter storm watches blossom tonight into Iowa and the rest of Nebraska. While we may receive 3 inches of rain. Sounds fun doesn't it? We didn't get enough rain in October so we need a few more inches for Christmas. Thunderstorms, flooding, heavy rain, probably flood watches issued for us, I can't wait. Maybe I'll go out Christmas morning and make a nice mudman, I was looking forward to letting my dog run around in a nice snow, he loves doing that, now if I let him out to run around he's going to be a huge muddy mess, he's a Westie, so he's white, so that's a problem, lol. I'm not even waiting for anymore model runs this morning to put my chance out there, and believe me it pains me severely to do this, but I will dramatically decrease our White Christmas chance to 3%. The only reason it's that high is to have the possibility of a southeast adjustment to the track and possible back wash snows to add up to an inch, if they stick around long enough. By the way backwash is gross, so who the hell wants 'backwash snow'? I really hope I'm a premature predictor here and I have to eat my words tonight or tomorrow when the new runs come out. Can't wait to hear the local weather people say, "if you're traveling north and west of St. Louis you'll have snow and problems, but around the St.Louis area, just wet roads, so no problems, so that's another bullet we dodged, that's good news" It's enough to make me scream, haha. Sorry for the length of my post and that 90% was bitching, I really thought we had a chance, maybe next time, but probably not, lol. Everyone have a good week with family and friends, at least we won't have to abandon them to look at the latest on the snowstorm.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 19, 2022 12:46:44 GMT -6
The snowfield seems very much aligned west to east across the cwa rather than sw to ne with a sharp cutoff to the se. I'm guessing due to the fact this is a hybrid and not an amplified true S stream system.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 19, 2022 8:54:21 GMT -6
There were several times where that 1/4/2014 storm should a decrease in snow amounts leading up to event only to come back just as strong if not stronger 2-3 days before. IIRC, models tried lifting that storm too far north around this timeframe and adjusted back south with time. The amount of digging and the timing of the negative tilt/pivot is crucial...a 50mi difference in track is huge. Yeah, I believe the GEM and Euro were both mega amplified at first and then eased back SE a bit.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 22:09:07 GMT -6
Could be a very early trend starter or a correction too far west...will remain to be seen.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 18, 2022 22:04:23 GMT -6
It would not surprise me to be too far west for the eastern cwa, but too far west for the metro and western cwa as well ? Geez...lol. If so, good call on that possibility wsc.
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