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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 26, 2020 15:30:03 GMT -6
Gosselin
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Sunday) Issued at 311 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
(Tuesday - Tuesday Night)
There is another system of interest for the middle of this upcoming week. Models have slowly trended toward the (more) consistent CMC/GEM with the evolution of two separate shortwave troughs, one moving east/southeast out of the southern Plains and another trailing shortwave diving south/southeast out of the mid-Missouri Valley. The trailing shortwave has trended further southwestward over the past 24-48 hours, which helps allow a bit more poleward transport of low-level moisture. This means light precipitation may make it further northward toward the southern CWA late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night. These more northern solutions are also backed up by many GEFS/EPS members. In fact, both the EPS/GEFS have accumulating snowfall focused on Tuesday night in the southern CWA. If these current trends hold, PoPs and QPF will need to be further adjusted northward. For now, increased PoPs in the southern half of the CWA with both schc/chc wording. Precipitation type should be mostly if not all snow, especially given the timing being predominantly overnight Tuesday night. This certainly does not look like a big system in terms of snowfall, but one that does bear further watching, especially given recent model trends.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 26, 2020 12:25:31 GMT -6
What would make the vort fall apart like that? Seems goofy. The trends seem to be for a stronger & slower trailing vort which will take over the "leftovers" into Tuesday night. Last night the EURO had two completely different upper level systems working against each other.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 26, 2020 12:15:15 GMT -6
Large pepperoni with extra phase 😋😋
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 26, 2020 12:07:10 GMT -6
by several hundred miles... (Definitely not)
but it certainly feels like it.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 26, 2020 12:06:03 GMT -6
EURO looks to have trended north
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 26, 2020 12:02:29 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 26, 2020 11:52:00 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 26, 2020 11:42:02 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 26, 2020 10:57:40 GMT -6
The trend this year certainly hasn't been suppression as far as I recall.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 25, 2020 21:09:02 GMT -6
I don't even know what I'm looking at but it's awesome.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 24, 2020 21:55:26 GMT -6
nice little burst of snow kicking down the Mississippi right now
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 24, 2020 21:37:09 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 24, 2020 16:19:52 GMT -6
WSC anything of note since you've been there?
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 24, 2020 11:58:38 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 24, 2020 11:16:36 GMT -6
I need to go back and double check but I'm pretty sure in recent history February has NOT been a good month for big snowstorms at KSTL. I'm believe the last time at least 6" of snow occurred in one storm in the month of February was back in the 90s. There's really no climatological reason for that as the station has gotten big storms in Dec, Jan, and Mar more recently. Chalk it up to randomness at a single geographic point. So will this be the year? Stl really missed out on that whole groundhogs day thing. I'll never forget that morning...
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 24, 2020 11:11:11 GMT -6
Concrete stuck to everything. Good call on the six coz.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 24, 2020 6:59:51 GMT -6
Luke what can I say.... Except we are all EXTREMELY PROUD OF YOU. IT'S GREAT TO BE ABLE TO CLAIM YOU AS OURS. YOU ARE A NATIONAL TREASURE ON TV. I WANT TO SEE YOU ON NATIONAL TV SOMEDAY TAKING OVER THE THE TOP SPOT AS THE BEST TV MET OF ALL TIME. Agree Friv! Luke is awesome. You guys are too kind. 😂😂
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 24, 2020 6:35:56 GMT -6
Apparently everything except 70 is like driving through mud.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 24, 2020 6:34:03 GMT -6
I don't think I've ever seen a higher water content snow. It's absolutely insane. We're stuck at about 5 inches because it's falling about as fast as it's melting.
32°
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 23, 2020 23:06:08 GMT -6
I'm betting you will see 6+ already at 2.5"
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 23, 2020 22:55:24 GMT -6
Our anchor was like "I don't think I've ever heard 'pouring snow' before"
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 23, 2020 22:53:57 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 23, 2020 16:23:40 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 23, 2020 16:08:55 GMT -6
This nuisance sure is quite the nuisance.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 23, 2020 16:08:26 GMT -6
Roads are about to go down fast , even treated surfaces are covering quick I have a feeling rush hour is going to be rough nuisance, dude.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 23, 2020 16:07:39 GMT -6
latest HRRR is a gold mine for everyone It finally caught on GFS on the other hand is still in the corner sniffing glue We now know how poorly it performs in dynamic cooling events... or at least being re-assured. Definitely need to use this storm as a tick on the scale.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 23, 2020 15:52:50 GMT -6
latest HRRR is a gold mine for everyone
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 23, 2020 14:07:49 GMT -6
Good ol' DCB comin in to ruin the fun
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 22, 2020 23:40:28 GMT -6
Massive flakes, moderate snow Where are you located? Columbia, Missouri
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 22, 2020 22:26:49 GMT -6
Look at the WRF ARW if you want to feel some type of way, ya'll.
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