|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 17:00:29 GMT -6
Something significant is brewing next week I'd say...it looks like a prolonged overrunning event followed by the main show ejecting out towards the weekend...if you believe the models. The GEFS mean looks quite wintry with the -5* h85 isotherm setting up along I-70 with gobs of energy traversing the S/Central Plains. I suspect operational runs are way too amped with that crazy looking bowling ball cut-off. But some crazy stuff can happen with the magnitude of the blocking that is developing with the strong west-based -NAO and NE Pacific block. There's a lot of cold drainage into the lower 48 after D4/5...impressive for mid-March!
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 15:39:02 GMT -6
I don’t think the snow band could get any closer to me without it actually snowing at my house. This sucks Hey, at least it wasn't a cold rain...
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 14:39:43 GMT -6
I might double my seasonal total out of this thing if it stays snow as the intensity pulls away. I'm currently under one of those awesome subsidence bands and got a rock *shrug* On a positive note, the inch and a half of rain filled up the pond that's been very low for 6+ months now.
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 14:28:06 GMT -6
Well that sucked Never saw anything but liquid here Sun is already trying to come out Sorry BRTN, no steak dinner Double or nothing with a seafood dinner next weekend?
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 14:21:31 GMT -6
Easily in an inch/hour band Must be nice, lol
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 13:39:18 GMT -6
It almost completely changed over for about 15 seconds a minute ago...lol
Temp down to 37*
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 13:30:40 GMT -6
Big time pressure spike near 3mb/hr currently!
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 13:03:46 GMT -6
Also, the wind is gusting to 45-50mph out here
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 13:02:58 GMT -6
Slushballs mixing in again at KBRT...absurd how close this is to a raging blizzard and yet it's 99% rain
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 12:35:53 GMT -6
Melting layer looks to be about 500' AGL...St. Louis is a snow hole of the highest order
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 12:18:50 GMT -6
Some almost melted snowflakes hitting my windshield in chesterfield. Same thing in Brighton...a few slushballs mixing in
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 12:07:27 GMT -6
Melting later beginning to break down on radar
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 10:22:26 GMT -6
Radar is about to look like March 4th, 2008 but it's all rain...wonderful That event was some of the heaviest snow I'd ever seen Still the heaviest snow I've seen...vis dropped to around 500-750' during the peak snow rate nearing 3"/hr. Ah, memories...
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 10:20:57 GMT -6
Clouds just off the deck are starting to scream out of the north...here comes the LLJ and strong backside winds. RAP showed a strong pressure fall/rise couplet crossing the river around the lunch hour. Almost a bubble high look to the pressure field.
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 9:33:09 GMT -6
Radar is about to look like March 4th, 2008 but it's all rain...wonderful
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 9:31:42 GMT -6
00z GEM/EC show a winter storm across the region this time next week...what could go wrong?
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 9:04:31 GMT -6
12z surface chart shows a 987mb low over the benchmark and a beautiful rainy deformation over us...peak Saint Louis weather
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 7:56:34 GMT -6
RAP shows the changeover happening around or just after the lunch hour. But 925mb temps look pretty warm, so I dunno...we'll see
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2023 7:46:10 GMT -6
12z RAP has this deepening to ~115dm and 977mb across S IL with a rapidly deepening mid-level low just SE of the Metro...this is the most ideal dynamical cooling setup if there ever was one...let's see what happens in a few hours.
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 21:16:58 GMT -6
I see Dave posted that the March low pressure record is 982mb at KSTL set in 1924 ...we have a shot at coming close to that.
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 21:14:12 GMT -6
Sure seems like the old reliable "NW trend" is a thing of the past...
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 20:20:26 GMT -6
Wonder if we'll see a short fused wind warning. Models show a 60-70kt LLJ on the backside of this beast...
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 19:58:13 GMT -6
That's waaaaaay south of where it had the SLP just 12 hours ago...
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 19:57:09 GMT -6
Does it develop snow once the low moves into IL? The 18z run brought the 130dm line across the river.
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 19:34:31 GMT -6
18z euro and 21z sref have a 975mb low. I think we go 972mb and shatter the record. Over S IL though...pressures don't drop below 980mb at KSTL on those runs so we can't even break a silly pressure record, lol
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 17:41:45 GMT -6
There is some serious cold on all the models next week. That is coming. No worries there. Far as I can tell, the vortex looks to take up residence across New England next week. We may catch a clipper or some kind of funky overrunning deal. But at face value, cold and dry looks to be the rule.
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 17:11:59 GMT -6
RAP on the bombogenesis train with 1mb/hr deepening as the low crosses SE MO and hits sub-980mb in S IL.
This is the strongest cyclone I can remember hitting the region. Very noteworthy regardless of snow prospects.
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 16:58:25 GMT -6
Radar coming alive to the SW but fighting some dry air on the leading edge with the NE wind...not a bad thing. The last storm didn't have much if any dry advection.
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 16:56:04 GMT -6
BRTN, if we get 3-6” I’m going to drive up to Brighton and buy you a steak dinner I'll hold you to it, and I know just the place! Are we using KSTL or KBRT as the official measurement? I like my chances of at least a ground coating up here. St. Louis, maybe not so much.
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 16:52:41 GMT -6
Last storm like this we had 4-8" forecast with WSWs in place and got barely over an inch IMBY.
Expect the unexpected.
|
|