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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 16, 2024 10:20:35 GMT -6
Looks like there's some broken clearing down south...CAMs have been showing a few storms firing this afternoon/early evening across the Ozarks with around 750-1000j/kg CAPE.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 16, 2024 5:23:27 GMT -6
Looks like instability will be limited today with widespread clouds/precip and meager lapse rates.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 14, 2024 20:40:59 GMT -6
Radar storm total estimate shows close to 2" of rainfall in Godfrey and less than a tenth IMBY...I'd say that's pretty accurate. We've really been in a consistent minima with the majority of the systems the past couple years for some reason. It got extremely dry here last summer while Godfrey and Alton were getting soaking storms. It also seems like the Belleville/StClairCo area has been an absolute magnet for precip and snow lately. It's amazing the difference a few miles can make.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 14, 2024 20:28:59 GMT -6
I'm starting to get concerned about river flooding heading into summer with the current elevated flows, saturated ground and model forecasts showing a spray of shortwaves in the S stream over the next couple weeks. This seems to be a different animal than the last couple seasons that were dominated by dry conditions overall. I'm also getting cool and rainy summer vibes with frequent amplifications in the N branch across the Lakes/NE knocking back the thermal ridge being advected E/NE into our region and an active MCS train. It's been a while since we've had a truly cool summer...2013 was the last one that I recall. Quite a breakneck switch from all the drought concerns. I was trying to figure which event(s) and when broke the back of the drought. Those heavy storms last weekend really put the kibosh to any lingering drought conditions in most areas I'd say. The exposed soil in my garden was getting dry and cracked after the dry spell and warm winds this weekend but the yard is still swampy in spots. The river valleys have had a lot of rain recently and current stages are ahead of forecast due to the heavy rainfall this morning.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 14, 2024 20:21:25 GMT -6
So I guess we can say... drought does not always lead to more drought. Definitely a feedback cycle until the pattern that led to the drought breaks down.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 14, 2024 19:03:46 GMT -6
I'm starting to get concerned about river flooding heading into summer with the current elevated flows, saturated ground and model forecasts showing a spray of shortwaves in the S stream over the next couple weeks. This seems to be a different animal than the last couple seasons that were dominated by dry conditions overall. I'm also getting cool and rainy summer vibes with frequent amplifications in the N branch across the Lakes/NE knocking back the thermal ridge being advected E/NE into our region and an active MCS train. It's been a while since we've had a truly cool summer...2013 was the last one that I recall.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 14, 2024 18:50:00 GMT -6
Thursday is worth keeping an eye on. Remnant MCV moving into the area and just enough shear to make things interesting Models suggest an enhanced band of mid-level winds on the S flank of the MCV...that would be enough to support organized deep convection with sufficient instability. I could see a strong wind threat developing with that...possibly a tornado or two as well.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 14, 2024 15:35:15 GMT -6
That was one hell of a deluge. Over 2 inches in one hour. Far too much water in my basement. This is a classic slow moving rain maker with tropical storm like bands rotating around the upper low. It's definitely hit or miss though. But it seems like it finally picked up some deeper moisture today with more widespread convection and showers.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 14, 2024 5:54:58 GMT -6
Skirt city IMBY...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 13, 2024 21:26:27 GMT -6
Was expecting more of a widespread rain today...we've barely had a trace in Brighton so far. This system seems to be lacking deep moisture or sustained lift or both. Yep- not really a cold core system- lapse rates aren’t great Big time split up 44...looking like we'll be lucky to get much *shrug*
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 13, 2024 18:52:03 GMT -6
Was expecting more of a widespread rain today...we've barely had a trace in Brighton so far. This system seems to be lacking deep moisture or sustained lift or both.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 11, 2024 8:43:56 GMT -6
Monday into Tuesday is looking pretty damp as a slow moving mid-level low drifts through. And there's signs of the MCS train starting to fire up towards next weekend and beyond.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 11, 2024 8:34:02 GMT -6
Last night was pretty cool...have to agree that seeing the total eclipse and aurora within a month is remarkable! My phone doesn't have night mode so pics were pretty meh but it was definitely naked eye visible and easily the brightest and highest elevation I've ever seen it.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 10, 2024 20:07:52 GMT -6
I'm going to head east here in a little bit to see if I can spot them I'm going to drive up towards Kane...it gets very dark up that way. I saw the aurora quite a few years ago but it was only a faint red glow on the horizon.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 8, 2024 9:09:16 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 8, 2024 8:53:06 GMT -6
Looks to me like the warm front isn't going to make it much further than Sullivan to Festus or so...if that far.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 8, 2024 8:51:40 GMT -6
That MCS is spinning like a top...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 8, 2024 7:34:42 GMT -6
12z analysis has the warm front down near the MO/AR border...it's got a long way to go but there are clear skies so it should retreat northward some. Definitely looks like the S half is favored for the greatest threat today, but the whole area is under the gun.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 7, 2024 16:24:19 GMT -6
I don't know that I had ever seen a daytime sky so black as I did during the May 8th, 2009 derecho. That's how the 2006 derecho was...a big, gnarly boiling black mass.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 7, 2024 11:28:58 GMT -6
There is an unusually large spread in the models regarding how tomorrow will play out. This includes pretty much any forecastable parameter you can think of. Regardless of finer details/noise, tomorrow's setup checks off a lot of boxes...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 6, 2024 19:42:23 GMT -6
Looks like messy storm mode lowered the ceiling with today's setup. Wednesday's setup continues to look ominous around here...models have the warm front very close to the Metro.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 5, 2024 20:25:15 GMT -6
Wednesday is looking like a near-ideal setup for discrete supercells which could very well be tornadic. The weak height falls and WSW mid-level flow with backed surface winds within the larko's triangle region is a concerning setup for the Metro.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 3, 2024 20:55:57 GMT -6
Looks like they'll stay elevated for a bit too...drove up north yesterday to go mushroom hunting near WI and the Sangamon was way out of it's banks with tons of backwater in fields. Do any good with the 'shrooms up there? We struck out at a few spots early in the day but hit another spot and picked around 6 or 7 pounds of mostly fresh yellows with a handful that had fruited about a week ago and past prime. Kinda seems like that cold spell that they had around the 20th and then a dry spell before all the rain may have screwed up some hillsides that were getting ready to fruit. They had 4 straight days below freezing with a low of 24* in Dubuque which is close to where we're hunting. That's a hard freeze.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 3, 2024 20:53:57 GMT -6
I was just thinking the same the other day 920...this is turning into one of those "year of the twisters" type season where the conditions are just ripe for strong tornadogenesis with ample shear and favorable thermodynamics and synoptic support. Haven't seen a season like this in probably 10 years I'd say...2013 or 2011 maybe. Unless I'm forgetting one?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 3, 2024 8:40:11 GMT -6
It's nice seeing the rivers full for a change. Looks like they'll stay elevated for a bit too...drove up north yesterday to go mushroom hunting near WI and the Sangamon was way out of it's banks with tons of backwater in fields.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 3, 2024 8:38:25 GMT -6
Ma Nature: "Everybody's yards look so nice and green. Mowing done every 6-7 days. I need to do something to fix that." Not complaining. Sure beats watching the garden wither away by early summer. That was a lot of work down the drain last season...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 1, 2024 20:33:11 GMT -6
Looks like an MCV is headed our way out of the Ozarks this evening... Went by to the south of me. I got nothing. Looks like I might catch a quick little shower here. It definitely shifted more easterly as it began to blow out.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 1, 2024 17:21:09 GMT -6
Looks like an MCV is headed our way out of the Ozarks this evening...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 30, 2024 19:17:57 GMT -6
Speaking of severe weather, early next week looks primed around here. That's a potent looking trof that gets carved out next week in the West...there's sure been a lot of strong jet energy digging into the US lately.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 30, 2024 17:40:24 GMT -6
Another wild day on the plains...wow
Today was a pretty low-key setup but it's sure producing some serious weather.
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