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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 13:45:29 GMT -6
12z GEFS still pretty much right through the wheelhouse with the SLP/850/500 features...maybe even a tick NW of where you'd like it. Great spot for this range with about half the guidance further S/E.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 13:40:33 GMT -6
Nice to see the UKIE jump on board but the GEM/EC operationals are still solidly in the sheared/suppressed camp. Given how the EC has performed lately, I'd put more weight in the phased/NW solution of the GOOFUS/UK. The GFS was the first to jump north with the last big storm that hit MN IIRC, so that gives it some credence.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 9:28:29 GMT -6
The uber low-res JMA has a nice hole in the QPF field around STL...lock it in, lol!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 9:10:03 GMT -6
The GEFS actually tracks the mean 850mb low across the Metro along I70...a blend of the two paints a pretty picture. Yep. And the GEPS is right down the middle of the strike zone. A blend of the three paints a perfect picture. Let's hope the paint sticks. Very close to the benchmark for sure. Operational runs are likely too far suppressed considering how far N/NW their ensemble means are. Plus, there's not a lot to keep the storm from lifting...the block over the top isn't overly strong by that point and there's a SE ridge in place. I like where we sit currently. A bit quicker negative tilt/phase would put us solidly in the game.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 8:03:45 GMT -6
Check out the EPS. We now have a cohesive low at 850mb and its pretty close to the benchmark. I'm just sayin... The GEFS actually tracks the mean 850mb low across the Metro along I70...a blend of the two paints a pretty picture.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 7:11:38 GMT -6
Little bit of glaze here in Brighton this morning. Was expecting more sleet/snow than ZR...guess there was no snow growth in the column.
GEFS mean remains remarkably consistent with the track of the SLP through the benchmark next week...this latest run has it near 990mb as it lifts into the lower OHV.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 22:48:32 GMT -6
Yep, definitely signs that the Nina is on it's last leg. I was waiting to see a downturn in the SOI before I got too excited and there it is.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 22:42:19 GMT -6
The signals are starting to stack up for a colder, wintry pattern to develop into March. SOI took a big downturn And the MJO is forecast to emerge into the favorable quadrant with a strong signal for a cold pattern in the E US
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 16:42:38 GMT -6
Interesting snippet from !AccuNotWx! who's claiming it's the "earliest spring in 40 years" in parts of the US...they must have forgotten about 2012 and they go on to say that 2017 was significantly warmer in Austin, lol.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 16:19:11 GMT -6
Ensembles sure are starting to look pretty good as we head into March...this screams cold with overrunning potential into the first full week of the month.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 16:10:55 GMT -6
12z GEFS mean staying the course with a sub-1000mb SLP track right through the benchmark next week and a bit colder profile.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 15:38:35 GMT -6
I did notice the NAM was showing around 300-500j/kg SBCAPE early Monday morning. Seems like a better setup for a forced squall line vs. discrete supercells, but I could see some QLCS tornado potential again with that.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 11:41:22 GMT -6
A blend of P26 and P30 would be nice...lock it in!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 10:53:17 GMT -6
That's a nice look on the GOOFUS at D7...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 8:59:00 GMT -6
GEFS shows a -EPO/-NAO/-AO combo developing towards the end of it's run...hopefully that holds up. We could make up the snowfall deficit in spades if that pans out with a strongly bookend winter.
Keep in mind that some of our heaviest snowfalls have happened in March...the biggest coming at the end of the month. The SSW may be happening later than we'd want ideally but that doesn't mean it won't have impacts. You can already tell models are responding to it with a wintry pattern developing across N America and the lower 48.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 8:50:48 GMT -6
Forecast confidence is below average right now. It's already low beyond 5 days, but this pattern seems particularly chaotic. The GFS does not agree with the GEFS. And the EPS does not agree with the GEFS. It just seems like any weather maker in the middle of the country from middle to late next week is random noise. Maybe a consensus will start developing today or tomorrow. I don't know. I'm not going to hold my breath though. Definitely high variability with the split-flow regime...but I'd say something is brewing later next week. Whether it impacts our region or not is the question...and what precip type if it does.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 8:45:51 GMT -6
00z GEFS mean shows a benchmark track of the sub-1000mb SLP with the 540dm line bisecting the region...looks like a good setup for heavy, wet snow.
The 00z EPS mean doesn't even have a cohesive low, so it's all over the place. I actually trust the GFS more right now...the EC has gone from super amped to flat in 12 hours.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 8:36:29 GMT -6
Models are trending colder and weaker/flatter with the storm next week around this time...that may end up being a good setup for us if it doesn't get suppressed like many of last night's runs show. The vortex lobe sitting near James Bay as that system ejects is favorable for our region as it forces confluence across the Lakes/N tier and feeds in cold air. The GEM picks up on that well and the GFS tries to phase and lift it northward but fails to do so.
In the meantime, it looks like the N half of the CWA could see a burst of sleet/snow this evening and overnight. Might get the ground whitened up a bit.
Monday still looks like a big wind-maker with a forced squall blowing through around daybreak and gusty winds behind the front. I wouldn't rule out some hailers overnight before that either.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 23, 2023 14:21:49 GMT -6
Bring on the rain...or whatever. Could be a huge morel season if it keeps this up.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 23, 2023 11:07:20 GMT -6
Just glancing at snowfall reports this morning across Minneapolis, it looks like 10-15” fell across the metro. More south and less north Still a ton of snow, but a slight underperformance compared to the 18-24” forecast a couple days ago Not quite "historic" from MN standards...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 23, 2023 8:51:53 GMT -6
The AO forecast looks much better than a few days ago...the strat warming is going to work
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 23, 2023 8:16:04 GMT -6
It's worth noting that quite a few models show a favorable track of the mid-level low for snow here, but with the cyclone bombing out to our W/SW it floods us with warm air on the front end and even behind it with a strong TROWAL. A weaker storm would have a better chance of tracking flatter vs. cutting and I fully expect models are way too amped currently. With the low latitude of ejection and the building blocking across E Canada, there's a chance it tracks favorably and draws in cold air...but it's a long shot right now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2023 16:20:31 GMT -6
It's interesting that the EC and GEM show significantly different large-scale setups but have essentially the same outcome across our region. The GEM has a strong surface ridge across the N tier which feeds in a lot of cold air while the EC is completely absent with that feature and has a 40mb pressure difference across the Dakotas but still delivers heavy snowfall. I'm sure that'll be gone by tonight or tomorrow's runs, but it's worth noting that there's good agreement for a significant storm towards next weekend.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2023 14:33:11 GMT -6
Probably 45mph here, not much rotation. Just blinding rain for 5 minutes or so. No lightning. Yeah must be lack of instability as the cause of no lightning. Lightning maps are almost spotless with this line through and through with only a rouge strike here and there mainly well north of I-70. Tops aren't high enough to get ice formation...low ELs
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2023 14:06:27 GMT -6
Probably 45mph here, not much rotation. Just blinding rain for 5 minutes or so. No lightning.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2023 13:49:57 GMT -6
That notch/couplet is still intact and over Otterville approaching MBY. Surprised they let the warnings drop with how dynamic this setup is...guess they aren't getting any ground truth reports?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2023 13:11:30 GMT -6
That kink is still very well defined and nearing Old Monroe
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2023 12:43:29 GMT -6
Well defined notch in the line just southeast of Warrenton...classic HSLC QLCS setup for quick hitting tornadoes. NWS is on it!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2023 12:06:04 GMT -6
Next week has some potential but it's far from textbook for a winter storm around here with the ridge way out in the Pacific. The blocking across NE Canada/Greenland is trying to help us out but I'm not confident it'll deliver when it comes to snow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 21, 2023 17:28:03 GMT -6
If we can muster up some instability with that shortwave next week, watch out Yeah, that's a potent little bowling ball of a trof ejection...tons of jet energy across the US going into next week.
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