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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 16:46:42 GMT -6
The temp profile during the height is razor thin IMO. This one literally could go one way or the other in my opinion. Yep...toss a coin or wait and see. I'm still going with 3-6"...I'm including rainfall in that forecast now...lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 16:45:33 GMT -6
NAM looks to have shifted a bit SE with the 18z...SLP tracks from FAM to IND on that run and crashes the 130dm line across the Metro with precip still falling within the TROWAL/deformation.
We're still in the game, but need a hail mary.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 12:53:19 GMT -6
Looks like our storm is starting to turn the corner near the western tip of Texas...looks like a buzzsaw on water vapor!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 12:48:31 GMT -6
I mean, come on!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 12:32:09 GMT -6
I will say that we may get the rare opportunity of seeing snow with near 40F temperatures if the Euro is right. At least we have that going for us. I've witnessed snow falling with temps in the low 40s once but it was showery precip with a cold core overhead and more graupel than true snow. I've got my camera ready for the cold rain, lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 11:18:19 GMT -6
The deep convection near the center of this storm is giving the hi-res models fits figuring out where it tracks, IMO. I'm struggling to remember this much discrepancy within 12hrs of an event unfolding.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 10:26:41 GMT -6
We'll see.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 10:14:23 GMT -6
12Z GFS says that the Friday/12Z SGF balloon launch will log a near record low 850mb height. The current record is 126 DM. NAM says let's smash that record by 80 meters, lol. Edit: That was the 00z run, the 12z is more like 60m...it's definitely trending a bit weaker/SE.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 10:10:58 GMT -6
Only problem with backside snow is surface temps are going to be in the upper 30s to low 40s Friday Any meaningful snow chances in the metro are <1% That sounding Coz posted definitely showed a sizable warm layer near the surface. Models are pretty consistent showing the FZL dropping to 1-2kft AGL within the deformation, so it's a close call. I think areas just N and W of the Metro stand a much better chance of seeing a changeover like Landscaper mentioned yesterday. Also, the higher terrain of the N Ozarks. The warm front doesn't get into those areas, keeping low-level temps a bit cooler, along with the lack of UHI.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 10:00:50 GMT -6
00z GEFS/EPS lock step now with a ~982mb low tracking across far S IL and a favorable track of the 850mb low for backside snow.
Will it or won't it?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 9:48:06 GMT -6
12z NAM has a ~115dm h85 low tracking directly over STL by noon tomorrow...no other model is anywhere close to that from what I've seen. It's easily 150mi NW and 10mb deeper than pretty much all other guidance.
TOSS
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 9:31:03 GMT -6
Also all models are depicting a stiff NE wind during the majority of storm. MOST of the time that spells a colder storm overall. Most models have definitely toned down the super strong TROWAL that was forecast in earlier runs, so the cold has a better chance of sloshing in as the storm passes. With a 55-60kt LLJ on the backside, it will be effecient in pulling in cooler air quickly from the N along with dynamical cooling. This is assuming the amped solutions like the hi-res NAMs and 12z HRRR are wrong
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 9:07:15 GMT -6
If it's forecast to be all rain, which it is IMBY via NWS...it will snow it's azz off.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 8:36:25 GMT -6
I was about to ask how much snow would there be if it fell as snow...25-30" would have been cool.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 8:16:21 GMT -6
I need the 12z nam to happen for my 12-18 inch max band prediction to verify 😂 Cut those amounts in half and I'd say your sitting pretty good.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 8:11:40 GMT -6
The GEM has been pretty locked in for days...it has not budged much at all. Considering the low-latitude that this shortwave is ejecting at, I'd say it's further SE synoptic track holds plenty of weight. Some of these models like the NAM and HRRR look way too NW to me.
Model performance with this system has been abysmal overall and still is within hours of the event unfolding.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 2, 2023 7:58:17 GMT -6
RAP only goes out to 18hrs on Accu but it's several degrees cooler at h85 by midnight along/N of I-70 with some pockets of 0* temps already developing under the strong lift.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 20:58:46 GMT -6
I just averaged the winters together, 2012 we were just a touch over 40 and this winter our average was just a touch under 40 degree averaged out, I know if we did not have that extreme cold late december this would of almost certainly been the warmest winter if not 2nd warmest on record If my calculations were right, all and all a very warm winter in the bi state. Jan/Feb were actually a little warmer than 2012 but December ended up a bit below average which definitely skewed the seasonal tally. March is when 2012 really caught fire though, coming in at a whopping 14.5* above average at KSTL. This month won't be anywhere close to that.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 20:47:35 GMT -6
00z nam remains the northern outlier. That would be one gnarly storm for Kirksville. It's actually N of IRK with the main band...would bury DBQ. It's only about 250mi NW of the 18z EC, lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 20:00:02 GMT -6
18z EC supports an inch or two across the N Ozarks into the N/W Metro. 00z runs should be interesting.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 19:21:19 GMT -6
18z euro brings that heavy band of snow through parts of the metro Friday. That is an encouraging run right there. Notable shift SE...it's becoming clear the NAM/GFS and earlier runs of the EC were too amped and cut too early. Whether that equates to snow falling in the Metro or not remains to be seen but at least there's a chance with the low tracking to the S as it rapidly deepens.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 18:51:15 GMT -6
If I took a day off I’d probably head to southern IL to chase. Only problem is you would need a damn NASCAR to keep up with the storms lol Just hope the tornadoes only turn left then! This made me LOL
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 18:50:46 GMT -6
DEC-FEB snow for SPI was 3.8”….7th least snowiest on record. Abysmal About the same at KBRT
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 17:14:38 GMT -6
Between the developing -AO/NAO and the MJO wave forecast to move into sectors 8/1, a colder, more wintry pattern seems like a lock at this point and longer range models certainly agree.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 16:53:08 GMT -6
Chilly
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 16:25:11 GMT -6
18z GFS is still close to wet snow breaking through for the Metro and points N/W by mid-day Fri with a ~982mb low tracking across the S counties as it reaches peak intensity. The rapid deepening of this storm favors strong dynamical cooling just N of the mid-level low track and the GFS shows FZL dropping to around 1-2kft within the deformation. Definitely a "wait and see" type of setup.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 16:10:07 GMT -6
Persistence with a major pattern change?
It's a bold strategy, Cotton...let's see if it pays off for 'em.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 15:42:42 GMT -6
I mean, it just has to be 32 degrees for winter precip and we are talking about sub freezing temps which is the whole point. Nobody said 0 degrees in STL. The context that it is March should make that obvious. [br 32 is a stretch. Upper 30s to mid 40s. 850s go well below zero later next week with deep northerly flow setting in. Seems like there's a lot of assumptions being made based on the fact that it's been a mild winter when there's a major pattern change underway that points to a significantly colder pattern emerging next week.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 14:15:13 GMT -6
12z EPS still has a lot of sub 980mb lows. Pressure record remains in jeopardy. Ideally, the low strengthens and bombs out as it crosses into Illinois before rapidly occluding. This will help with dynamic cooling. Still seems too far NW and amped...GFS/GEFS came right back in line with earlier runs that were further S. EC has been all over the place...from deeply suppressed to almost the NW outlier with a cutter ala NAM. The GEM started out suppressed like the EC but once it picked up on the phasing it's been pretty dead nuts and the GFS came towards it's solution the past couple runs. Basically, I don't trust the EC right now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 12:18:47 GMT -6
EURO is bonkers... for NC IL up through Chicago I still think we're in the game for some heavy, wet snow but it's gonna be close. Can't turn your back on such a powerful, dynamic system like this. Definitely a SE trend with the last couple cycles.
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