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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 12, 2024 14:46:29 GMT -6
Almost all models are starting to show signs of hope for Sunday night actually.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 11, 2024 22:32:39 GMT -6
I thought the sun/mon system had a real good shot. But in the back of my mind I was thinking it’s really unlikely that little mess of a system can pull any moisture so soon after the Gulf has been emptied by these last two storms. Should have listened better to that voice. Now we enter a period of very pointless cold. Agh.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 11, 2024 16:07:47 GMT -6
Yup Sunday is drying up. “Lol.”
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 11, 2024 8:04:24 GMT -6
I was going to head down to our farm in S Illinois(Vienna), for the final days of deer season, but with thunderstorms, flash flooding with up to 2” of rain, and high winds now forecasted, I’m just going to write off this weekend at the farm. 🤦♂️ This will be the weekend when the buck of a lifetime walks 20 yards away from your stand and mills around there for an hour! 🤣 *Flies.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2024 18:36:15 GMT -6
That must be the storm I was talking about, Chris...I remember it well. There was a persistent donut hole on radar through the whole event. Yup I remember that one too. I can still see the weather channel radar on the 8’s as the snow kept trying to develop out near KC but couldn’t overcome the dry air. Also there was a southern storm around 2005ish that even the WAA got eaten up and the back side never materialized.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2024 8:14:38 GMT -6
I really hope Sunday happens for everyone. If we start to see it dry up over the next day or so's model runs we are going to have an issue. Good news is, Ukie and Euro have been trending wetter.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2024 22:12:59 GMT -6
I can’t put my finger on it exactly but this reminds me a lot of a winter around 2007-2008ish. Couple of big storms missing to the north then we did cash in on a blue norther like models are showing for Sunday. Wasn’t much else that year, down this way anyway.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2024 22:07:15 GMT -6
Friday belongs to you WSC. Enjoy, you’ve been hosed too, especially considering your geography.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2024 10:48:58 GMT -6
Man, UK is way back north. Crazy model spread for being at the 72 hour mark.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2024 10:12:09 GMT -6
For Friday: GEM shows a 987 Memphis low and we get rain. Classic stuff. I would bet on a quicker transition on the NW side of the low given recent trends, dynamics, and upper level temps. I think we are still in play here. Also, most models are shifting south in general. And don't forget the blue norther Sunday...that is looking very steady.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2024 7:24:13 GMT -6
While the low placement is better for Friday, I'm starting to become concerned with the lack of precip being thrown back into the cold air as shown on the Euro, and now the nam.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2024 22:21:59 GMT -6
Talk about a classic “Blue Norther” on Sunday night. Doesn’t get any more textbook than that.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2024 17:55:13 GMT -6
Mix of rain sleet and big sloppy snowflakes in Perryville. Obviously I know it’s going to all rain here right soon but still interesting how much colder the profile is than forecast.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2024 12:26:47 GMT -6
Yea Euro has it moving too fast and doesn't give it a chance to wrap up. Ehh.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2024 10:49:41 GMT -6
The UKMET is a huge blizzard for the area Friday Big shift south, but need more.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2024 9:54:14 GMT -6
12z Icon has basically a perfect track for Friday and hammers the northern and eastern counties. Needs to pull in a little more cold air and would be perfect Bit of a job north, I don't like it.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2024 12:29:01 GMT -6
And another one bites the dust!
As my 3 year old would say, “I’m all done with this.”
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2024 11:30:08 GMT -6
Yikes, gfs on its own is no good.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 6, 2024 17:16:57 GMT -6
I’m all in too, just hoping it doesn’t start trending north more. Euro being way south is a great sign.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 6, 2024 10:29:27 GMT -6
My genuine hope is that everyone in our area can get one good one. You guys can have Tuesday. I’ll take Friday!!
Early on we are seeing the gem is not our most trusted model this season. Once gfs went north to join with euro they pretty well led the charge.
Last night’s over performer though is a great sign of things to come in my opinion.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2024 23:53:55 GMT -6
Will fall just shy of 1” here in Perryville. Hard to complain when you expected zero!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2024 19:03:41 GMT -6
Holy cow! Here in Ironton it’s on the roads and very slick right now. Elevation!!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2024 18:14:16 GMT -6
Pretty well dumping hamsters in Perryville. Trying to accumulate but tough to do at 34-35 degrees. Ahh.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2024 18:02:26 GMT -6
Moderate to dare I say almost heavy snow now in Perryville.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2024 17:43:16 GMT -6
Pretty measly mix here, no accumulation anywhere.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2024 16:15:30 GMT -6
Steady snow here now with decent flake size. Need to drop a few degrees. Hopefully get an inch tonight but that’s a stretch.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2024 15:52:43 GMT -6
Light snow breaking out here in Perryville, 36 degrees. Temps underperformed by about 5 degrees, can’t hurt.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2024 11:54:47 GMT -6
For tonight...snowfall rates currently around Little Rock are fairly impressive, and even a good coating on the ground on some of the traffic cams. Time of day and further development may lend to a little bonus tonight for some. Maybe a nice little appetizer before the crap sandwich Tuesday!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2024 22:19:11 GMT -6
Random question for the group. Does anyone from out in Washington Co. or Sullivan area know of anyone (old friends, family, etc.) who worked in the Pea Ridge Iron mine back when it was open?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2024 21:55:39 GMT -6
This system is definitely living up to the billing of "interesting" I just peaked over at the 12z Icon... and it is very slow pulling this thing together and really doesn't bring snow into the area until Tuesday night. But does show an narrow, but impressive looking band setting up over eastern/southeastern Missouri. In some ways... this system reminds me of the March 2008 storm that exploded right on top of us...with that super narrow mesoscale band that dumped 10 inches in a little more than 2 hours at my place in Chesterfield. Easily the heaviest snow I've experienced as an adult. I think it was this one... www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us0304.phpThat one angered me more than probably any other system, ever. The bands just sat from a Park Hills to Festus line points north and never moved south. I was in line for 5-9” basically until the bands took shape and that had to be adjusted.
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