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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2024 18:16:32 GMT -6
^Unbelievable.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2024 12:24:29 GMT -6
Euro is gonna go wagons north.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2024 10:13:29 GMT -6
A bit of a trend starting to show up on the models illustrating the separation between the WAA portion of this system and the back end associated with the low. GFS at 12z shows this clearly, as did the Euro last night. Overall you have a weaker system, but we would be in a good spot in this scenario if the temps cooperate.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 4, 2024 8:01:43 GMT -6
I thought we took out the trash a couple years ago?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2024 17:14:03 GMT -6
When the gfs and euro agree they’re tough to beat. Kind of a Yadi Waino thing!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2024 13:59:49 GMT -6
I'd say the trend is pretty clear here.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2024 11:34:07 GMT -6
I am very skeptical at this point but also know the trend the last couple years has been for a southern trend, whereas the preceeding decade was for a northern trend once you got within 4-5 days.
Also, the models (in particular the GFS) have been overcooking these systems at this range for a couple years now. Still time to sort things out.
Until then, "Oh Canada."
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2024 8:58:51 GMT -6
There goes the NAM juicing things up for this Friday night-Sat morning lol.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 2, 2024 16:19:04 GMT -6
18z gfs with a jog north.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 2, 2024 14:42:27 GMT -6
Was it last year or the year before that we had one, if not two deformation rains in December? I remember there were a few flakes mixed in with the heavy rain on one of them and it was quite insulting.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 2, 2024 10:32:33 GMT -6
Sorry for your loss Snowman. I went through that 7 years ago and while extremely tough, know that it does get easier with time.
Not a bad look on the GFS. If the temps are that close and the low bombs out as shown, it will take care of itself in terms of snow. Long ways to go. We have to get the focus on the southern vort/cyclogenesis.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 1, 2024 22:29:50 GMT -6
Now that gfs run is intense. Of all the things we’ve seen over the years that we would say looks like a certain event 42 years ago, this would have to be the most comparable. Too bad we are 180 hours out.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 1, 2024 17:32:48 GMT -6
Let's just hope one doesn't go too far south and then 2nd storm going way north. Leaving us in the dead zone. That is very possible and would be the expectation. Just consider ourselves lucky if it doesn't. Unfortunately this looks like the most likely outcome at this point. Lots of ingredients on the table for the rest of the month though.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 28, 2023 22:59:41 GMT -6
Southern jet is about to kick into high gear. While we have a ways to go, the pieces are starting to align in the medium to long range.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 27, 2023 11:50:39 GMT -6
First flakes of the year here in the hills of far northern Ste. Gen county. Decent size, about 50/50 rain/snow mix.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 27, 2023 10:05:54 GMT -6
Someone has been sleeping at a Holliday Inn Express the last couple nights!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 23, 2023 14:50:40 GMT -6
We don't have winter here anymore. We have short intervals of cold with even shorter intervals of snow in a vast land of non winter. Quick math says we’ve had 7 years since 2000 that have been in the top 40 snowiest years. And 8 years since 2000 that have been in the top 40 least snowiest. From 1980 to 2000 we had 6 in the top 40 for snowiest.And likewise, 3 in top 40 for least. Not sure what to do with that other than I was curious lol Good point here. Overall yes it’s been warmer for longer stretches, but in the grand scheme of things it’s not all that unusual for this part of the country. Our memories are short, especially when it’s 60 degrees on Christmas weekend. We’ve had some very impressive events the last 20 years, and not just a few of them. Just look at the data for the last 120 years. Lots of winters in there where a person could easily say “it doesn’t snow around here anymore.”
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 17, 2023 13:02:34 GMT -6
Major flood emergency underway on the SC coast. That feeder band off the ocean reminds me of Harvey/Houston. It obviously won’t last near as long but it’s very impressive right now.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 14, 2023 10:49:11 GMT -6
Man, if I was an east coast snow weenie, I’d be awfully peeved right now. If the norther jet was involved like normal this would be a colossal snowstorm this weekend. It’s like the Superstorm of ‘93 track minus the energy and phase with the northern jet.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 13, 2023 22:49:43 GMT -6
Lol, gfs says “yea I was just kidding about that whole pattern change thing!”
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 13, 2023 12:45:15 GMT -6
Yea, models have been showing that for the last 3 or 4 runs now. You'd think it would eventually have to change! It is out there a ways yet, but the evidence of the change is visible in the 8-9 day-ish range, so we might be on to something.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2023 13:15:45 GMT -6
Yea, we really don't even see that on the horizon. We're well beyond "two more weeks" at this point, not great!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2023 16:28:13 GMT -6
Yea, this has to be historically warm for the continent. Geez. Is the cold locked up on the other side or is it just not there?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 9, 2023 17:06:34 GMT -6
Looks like Hendersonville took direct hit. Still on the ground, Gallatin next.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 7, 2023 12:40:20 GMT -6
Mid-latitude cyclogenesis is becoming a tough thing to accomplish again...not a good sign.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 29, 2023 23:50:41 GMT -6
Insanely warm over North America, wow. You’d sure think it would flip at some point and when it does it’ll probably be pretty harsh.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 27, 2023 13:07:50 GMT -6
As far as the Cards go, I agree we need one more starter, and a top guy at that. But I am nearly certain that will not happen since we have already signed 3 pitchers. It is ok, but we need a little more. Better than nothing like the last few years.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 27, 2023 13:06:36 GMT -6
Long range is no good for snow lovers. The Pacific is firmly in control!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 22, 2023 11:01:55 GMT -6
Models coming in this morning looking a little more favorable for our first flakes Sunday morning. Would be nice to see a few flying around.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 21, 2023 12:57:51 GMT -6
Mo doesn’t set the budget and has to work under the resource constraints given. Last year was a disaster, but a lot of terrible offensive sequencing and bullpen leverage that is likely to regress towards the mean. Things aren’t as dire as they appear by the overall record. Still, if they don’t get one #1 or #2 I will wholeheartedly admit I was fooled and join your side. Glasnow is an ideal upside target that will have minimal prospect cost, so I really want him. I just find it hilarious that nobody EVER mentions Girsch. I'm convinced he's a highly-paid coffee runner. He's a shoe shiner I assume lol. They don't let him talk much. Mo may be strapped by Dewitt cash wise but the decisions made the last few years have been awful ones regardless. More than anything, I despise his political response to every question. He'd make a great White House Press Secretary.
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