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Post by Tilawn on Oct 10, 2018 3:54:41 GMT -6
Should I expect more rain to develop this morning? Was thinking that it would be raining most of the morning hours today but radar looks to be moving it off rather quickly this morning. Figured I’d have a day off today 😊 but maybe not now
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 10, 2018 4:58:28 GMT -6
This solid band of rain and storms when I went to bed and at 5:30a poof it’s gone! What happened?
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Post by ComoEsJn on Oct 10, 2018 5:09:00 GMT -6
it looks like there's more coming up from the southwest into the metro area from the latest look at the radar
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 10, 2018 5:09:13 GMT -6
Michael...Yikes Pressure keeps on going down down down
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 10, 2018 5:26:07 GMT -6
Michael...Yikes Pressure keeps on going down down down Cam he make it to a cat 5? Could be close...
Landfall looks to be right on top of Tyndall Air Force Base, FL east of Panama City. Looks like Tallahassee will miss the worst of it just too it's west.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 10, 2018 5:26:42 GMT -6
Surely Michael won’t be as bad as Andrew! Homestead Fl there was nothing left!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 10, 2018 5:43:29 GMT -6
The amount of lightning in the eyewall is very impressive. About as much as I've ever seen. This one has always been able to generate a ton of convection...it was just a matter of time before it did what it is doing now.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 10, 2018 5:51:34 GMT -6
Up to 145 now. Gonna be ugly folks.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 10, 2018 5:53:05 GMT -6
Surely Michael won’t be as bad as Andrew! Homestead Fl there was nothing left! I wouldn't bet on that. This thing hasn't reached its peak yet |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 10, 2018 5:53:25 GMT -6
Michael...Yikes Pressure keeps on going down down down Whoa...I see that the Air Force plane eye dropsonde got 936mb with a 24kt wind. So likely at least a couple mb lower. Big pressure drop from last advisory. Edit: Ok yep, latest NHC advisory at 933mb. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 10, 2018 5:57:21 GMT -6
Jim Cantore is thinking possible Cat. 5 at landfall due to the continued lightning in the eyewall indicating a system still deepening. Wow.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 10, 2018 6:04:03 GMT -6
Jim Cantore is thinking possible Cat. 5 at landfall due to the continued lightning in the eyewall indicating a system still deepening. Wow. It's almost the category 5 now. Just 12 miles an hour short. The question now is how big a category 5 does it get to before it either hits the coast or peaks out. Is there anything to slow down the strengthening process? Any signs of eyewall replacement? Andrew was at 922 millibars when it struck Florida I believe. That's officially above Category 5 but we know the stats. I can see this one dropping to 925 before landfall. |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 10, 2018 6:04:57 GMT -6
Another issue with Michael is that the right front quadrant will likely make landfall head first into the coast since it will be moving NE at that time. I sure hope everyone got the hell out of there. ..you know there's always a few dopes that'll stick around and ride out a Cat-anything storm. |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 10, 2018 6:13:49 GMT -6
Jim Cantore is thinking possible Cat. 5 at landfall due to the continued lightning in the eyewall indicating a system still deepening. Wow. It's almost the category 5 now. Just 6 miles an hour short. The question now is how big a category 5 does it get to before it either hits the coast or peaks out. Is there anything to slow down the strengthening process? Any signs of eyewall replacement? Technically it's about 11mph short. Cat 5 starts at 156mph. But I don't think there's much to inhibit the cyclone at the moment and no obvious signs of an ERC yet either. If anything the pressure falls and lightning probably indicate some strengthening still possible. Though I suspect Cat 5 is still a low chance. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 10, 2018 6:18:56 GMT -6
It's almost the category 5 now. Just 6 miles an hour short. The question now is how big a category 5 does it get to before it either hits the coast or peaks out. Is there anything to slow down the strengthening process? Any signs of eyewall replacement? Technically it's about 11mph short. Cat 5 starts at 156mph. But I don't think there's much to inhibit the cyclone at the moment and no obvious signs of an ERC yet either. If anything the pressure falls and lightning probably indicate some strengthening still possible. Though I suspect Cat 5 is still a low chance. Yeah, I was thinking 151 for some reason. Too much rum, I guess |
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Post by yypc on Oct 10, 2018 6:19:53 GMT -6
Is Cantore going to be on the beach in Panama City for this one? There may be another 10+mb of deepening before landfall. This is going to be easily the strongest landfalling hurricane in the US in October.
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Post by yypc on Oct 10, 2018 6:21:56 GMT -6
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 10, 2018 6:24:56 GMT -6
If we look at the near history of major storms in the Gulf it seems that most of them that go through a big-time strengthening peak out somewhere in the category 5 range before they back down. Why would this one be any different?
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 10, 2018 6:32:57 GMT -6
Just in the last 1-2 hours the eye on IR satellite has gotten warmer and much better defined. Finally "looks" like a legit high-end Cat 4. Satellite ADT raw T# is up to 7.3 which is really really high.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 10, 2018 6:38:46 GMT -6
I know people have their issues with TWC, but I do like their hurricane and tornado outbreak coverage. I saw earlier that Stephanie Abrams was debating west to join Jim Cantore. That would be an attempt to get out of the RFQ eyewall.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 10, 2018 6:53:11 GMT -6
What is the motion now? Is it still 360 or has it started creeping Northeast?
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 10, 2018 6:59:34 GMT -6
What is the motion now? Is it still 360 or has it started creeping Northeast? Over the last couple of hours it looks like 20* at 9kts to me. So yes NNE now. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 10, 2018 7:04:59 GMT -6
What is the motion now? Is it still 360 or has it started creeping Northeast? Over the last couple of hours it looks like 20* at 9kts to me. So yes NNE now. Getting slammed straight on by the eye wall isn't a great thing but if this thing goes any further west than expected Panama City is going to get nailed by the right front quadrant. Have not seen any good up to date maps of Centerline but is it going straight over Panama City now, slightly East, or slightly West? |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Oct 10, 2018 7:21:32 GMT -6
...8 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WATER LEVELS QUICKLY RISING AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES...
A National Ocean Service station at Apalachicola recently reported
a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph (85
km/h).
SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 86.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 10, 2018 7:48:50 GMT -6
The pressure continues to drop. Officially it's still 933 but recon is finding lower.  |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 10, 2018 7:53:37 GMT -6
No. The weather channel has evacuated as has cnn. That's telling. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Oct 10, 2018 8:12:13 GMT -6
...9 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES...
A private weather station in Bald Point, Florida, recently reported
a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and wind gust of 59 mph (95
km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 58
mph (93 km/h). A Weatherflow station in St. Andrew Bay recently
reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust of 48 mph
(77 km/h).
Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 4 feet of inundation above
ground level.
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 86.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 10, 2018 8:14:21 GMT -6
This is terribly distressing...Michael is now essentially as strong as Andrew at landfall...and technically stronger than Katrina (in terms of wind)...and it is still strengthening. This is the strongest hurricane to ever make landfall on the panhandle...the only Cat 4 ever...which surprised me.  |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 10, 2018 8:15:48 GMT -6
Plane making a southwest to northeast pass. Interested to see what they find especially on the northeast side.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 10, 2018 8:29:00 GMT -6
boy, it only took about 2 days for this storm to really get out of control... can only hope enough people heeded warnings since then
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