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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Oct 10, 2018 8:35:11 GMT -6
Fox is on at Firestone, they have reporters down there. Idiots. They should have pulled them out.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 10, 2018 8:35:23 GMT -6
I'm seeing some 150-155kt velocity bins on radar on the eastern side at about 7100-7800ft. Typically you'd take about 85% at that altitude for the surface, but that still might be too generous. In any case, really powerful storm.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 10, 2018 8:47:09 GMT -6
Look at those mesovortices in the eye!
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 10, 2018 8:48:58 GMT -6
This is terribly distressing...Michael is now essentially as strong as Andrew at landfall...and technically stronger than Katrina (in terms of wind)...and it is still strengthening. This is the strongest hurricane to ever make landfall on the panhandle...the only Cat 4 ever...which surprised me. And Andrew only had 20 TJ of kinetic energy. Using the official 7am advisory Michael has 47 TJ. www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 10, 2018 8:50:32 GMT -6
Dropsonde in the N eyewall had a surface wind of 129kts. Could be a gust, but that correlates well with flight level winds and radar velocity so that may be accurate. Pressure in the VDM was listed as 929mb but I don't think they got an eye dropsonde. We'll see what NHC says at next advisory coming out shortly.
Edit: There was an eye dropsonde at 929mb with 10kt wind. So probably 928mb.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 10, 2018 8:55:14 GMT -6
Can someone give a link to the best, most high resolution visible loop of this thing?
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 10, 2018 8:59:37 GMT -6
Latest Disco at NHC says 928. They see signs of an outer eye wall on radar. Could be the only thing that slows or stops the strengthening.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 10, 2018 8:59:43 GMT -6
Can someone give a link to the best, most high resolution visible loop of this thing? Not sure what the best is. You could try here: rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu. Then select mesosector 1 and band 1, 2, or 3. I use GREarth with AllisonHouse and I can zoom in as close as I want. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 10, 2018 9:08:32 GMT -6
Can someone give a link to the best, most high resolution visible loop of this thing? The CoD page has some good GOES-16 imagery. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 10, 2018 9:12:10 GMT -6
Landfall looks to be close to Mexico Beach...Apalachicola and Port St. Joe is in serious trouble.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 10, 2018 9:13:30 GMT -6
Landfall looks to be close to Mexico Beach...Apalachicola and Port St. Joe is in serious trouble. No Doubt |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Oct 10, 2018 9:31:32 GMT -6
Sustained winds now confirmed at 150MPH!
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 10, 2018 9:32:46 GMT -6
New eye dropsonde indicates pressure is still falling. 923-924mb somewhere around there.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 10, 2018 9:34:17 GMT -6
Any live storm chasers down there? I'd like to see it make landfall over my lunch break.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 10, 2018 9:34:26 GMT -6
Yep. A special advisory may be forthcoming. Recon continues to find evidence of lower pressures as well.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Oct 10, 2018 9:35:52 GMT -6
Latest advisory is at 150mph and still strengthening rapidly. So sad for a beautiful part of the country Pressure is at 923mb
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 10, 2018 9:36:48 GMT -6
Special advisory already out. 923mb/150mph.
I think that's 24mb drop in about 12 hours.
Edit: thecommish beat me to it.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 10, 2018 9:38:05 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 10, 2018 9:38:55 GMT -6
Wow!!!!!!  |
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Post by yypc on Oct 10, 2018 9:53:01 GMT -6
Up to 150mph and pressure down to 923mb officially. Still getting stronger Edit: Jeff is live again near Mexico Beach, says hes driven around numerous tornadoes www.pscp.tv/w/1YpJkLweZjPxj?t=17s |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 10, 2018 10:10:14 GMT -6
I gotta say...the Euro handled the track and especially the intensity very well from early on.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 10, 2018 10:26:34 GMT -6
The last couple of frames it seems like he has pulled a little due North again
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 10, 2018 10:28:32 GMT -6
I just heard on abcnews some lady who runs a housing project organization is riding it out in Panama City. She lives in a mobile home.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 10, 2018 10:32:37 GMT -6
Eye dropsonde was 922mb with 34kt wind. So probably sub-920mb now.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 10, 2018 10:43:02 GMT -6
this is scary. I have a bad feeling a lot of folks felt Florence was overhyped and may have stayed... this storm is a much different beast, and the situation has gotten exponentially worse in the past 48 hours.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 10, 2018 10:47:13 GMT -6
This will be the worst "total hurricane" since Andrew I suspect in Florida. That region is so susceptible to surge flooding...to say nothing of the wind. It is a very somber day.
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Post by mchafin on Oct 10, 2018 10:48:28 GMT -6
I was just talking to a co-worker who moved here from that general area. I asked him if he knew anybody sticking around and he said no way. Everyone vacated days ago to either Atlanta or Orlando. There's a difference between riding it out because you don't have the means to get out or riding it out because you want to experience it. This could be devastating. I hope that people heeded the warnings to get out.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 10, 2018 10:50:15 GMT -6
Eyewall is coming ashore
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 10, 2018 10:53:34 GMT -6
All pretty flat land until you get north of I-10. A big surge could cover half of the panhandle. When is high tide for that area today?
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Post by dschreib on Oct 10, 2018 10:54:31 GMT -6
I just heard on abcnews some lady who runs a housing project organization is riding it out in Panama City. She lives in a mobile home. "lived" |
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