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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 14, 2018 20:22:59 GMT -6
Looks like a nice week ahead!
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Oct 14, 2018 21:19:20 GMT -6
Plan on seeing the term "schmocker rule" much more frequently than say.."winter storm warning". hahaha no kidding |
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Post by bear1 on Oct 15, 2018 6:05:05 GMT -6
brrrrrrrrr. I've got a brisk 36° this morning.
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 15, 2018 6:30:18 GMT -6
I am down to 36* with a wind chill of 29* this morning.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 15, 2018 6:50:36 GMT -6
I am down to 36* with a wind chill of 29* this morning. Are you still cloudy? KCI was at 32 with clear skies at 6 AM |
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 15, 2018 7:04:22 GMT -6
I am down to 36* with a wind chill of 29* this morning. Are you still cloudy? KCI was at 32 with clear skies at 6 AM Yes clouds are locked in tight yet. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 15, 2018 10:09:07 GMT -6
Love this weather!
Another dip in the polar jet looks be setting up this wknd following brief warming in the next 3 days
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 15, 2018 11:30:03 GMT -6
Well, what do you guys think...this NW flow will be around through winter? Or do you expect the warm SW flow to reappear?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 15, 2018 11:47:28 GMT -6
Now that its been 5 days, there are some crazy videos on Youtube from Michael's eyewall. I didn't think I would ever see anything as strong as the ones from Hurricane Charley in 2004 but they are right there and worse in my opinion. The damage is much worse than we all thought initially...had to give it a couple days to really get the pictures out of there. I expect an upgrade to Cat. 5 before all is said and done. Also 30 people still missing.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 15, 2018 11:54:39 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Oct 15, 2018 13:04:32 GMT -6
NWS has issued freeze warning or frost advisory for pretty much the entire CWA.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 15, 2018 13:35:37 GMT -6
The mesovortices in the western eyewall of Michael around landfall were insane. You can see several from the normalized rotation in the lower right pane. I also happened to notice in the same frame a 213kt (245mph) velocity bin; though that could potentially just be a dealiasing issue.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 15, 2018 13:59:21 GMT -6
Nw MO had snow last night. Saw a pic in twitter of near an inch in st joseph.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 15, 2018 20:37:30 GMT -6
EURO control snowfall through 11/30 has St. Louis getting around a foot between now and the end of November. Might be our year to finally cash in after 3 dud seasons. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 15, 2018 20:59:20 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 15, 2018 21:02:11 GMT -6
Overall it looks like most are going against NOAA/NWS once again despite it's calls for mild/warm temps and slightly below normal precip (following the Nino averages), and going for instead a normal if not 'near' blockbuster winter similar to 2009-2010 and 2013-2014. The developing "warm blob" in the gulf of Alaska is quite similar to the latter so something between those and 2002-2003 are not an reasonable expectation.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 15, 2018 21:57:43 GMT -6
Overall it looks like most are going against NOAA/NWS once again despite it's calls for mild/warm temps and slightly below normal precip (following the Nino averages), and going for instead a normal if not 'near' blockbuster winter similar to 2009-2010 and 2013-2014. The developing "warm blob" in the gulf of Alaska is quite similar to the latter so something between those and 2002-2003 are not an reasonable expectation. I'm not saying I wouldn't take a 2013-2014 up here in Chicago, but 82 inches might be excessive lol. It's great actually seeing the gfs print out snow in the extended. Hopefully we are tracking storms in 6 weeks or so. |
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Oct 16, 2018 2:02:32 GMT -6
Interesting read. Curious as to why he excludes the majority of Missouri and all of Kansas from his forecast zones. |
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Post by bororug on Oct 16, 2018 4:59:30 GMT -6
Crisp 35 degrees this morning.
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 16, 2018 5:09:11 GMT -6
33* this morning very foggy and frost has set in as well. Glass patio table was covered at 1:30 this morning.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 16, 2018 5:18:52 GMT -6
Some scattered frost here in U town.
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Post by birddog on Oct 16, 2018 5:43:23 GMT -6
30.5 this morning. Temp is slowly climbing on a south breeze.
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 16, 2018 5:58:46 GMT -6
Not much frost on the ground but decent on rooftops. IMO not a killing frost tho
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Post by dschreib on Oct 16, 2018 6:05:47 GMT -6
Clouds - 36.1* - no frost. Time to make the donu...mow the grass.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 16, 2018 6:25:40 GMT -6
Cloud cover seemed to hold over the southern part of the area
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 16, 2018 6:37:56 GMT -6
Yea, clouds kept us around 38-39 last night down here, thus preventing a frost.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 16, 2018 6:40:35 GMT -6
This winter should be a fun battle between the squashed SW flow and the aggressive NW regime. I think the NW flow will more often times win out. Already some deep cold in Canada, and that warm bubble near Alaska is telling us what's to come I believe.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 16, 2018 8:57:35 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 16, 2018 11:07:15 GMT -6
I have significantly undercut MOS guidance for tomorrow night...as I believe conditions will be nearly ideal for radiational cooling across the entire region... more so than last night. Surface high pressure should be centered almost directly overhead...winds will be light...and we will not have the pesky southwest flow high level clouds to deal with. Td's are forecast to be near or just above freezing...and I see no reason why air temperatures will not head in that direction. I went 35 for Lambert...which may not be cold enough. Outlying areas are sure to get into the low 30s...and frost should be widespread pretty much everywhere.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Oct 17, 2018 6:47:38 GMT -6
Nice frost this morning at my farm.
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