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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 17, 2018 15:27:38 GMT -6
GFS is doing some weird stuff toward the end of the month  |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Oct 17, 2018 16:52:16 GMT -6
GFS is doing some weird stuff toward the end of the month  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 17, 2018 16:53:08 GMT -6
Looks like WSC could see a bit of snow Saturday with a Manitoba Mauler swinging down across the OHV.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 17, 2018 17:00:53 GMT -6
Looks like WSC could see a bit of snow Saturday with a Manitoba Mauler swinging down across the OHV. I saw that, but surface temps look awfully warm. I'm really craving snow worse than any year I can remember. Been reading about the Groundhog Day blizzard. 70 mph winds and 20 inches of snow lol. Reminded me we had a blizzard warning for several counties. Wish I could find the thread, bet it was nuts. |
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Post by pbc12871 on Oct 17, 2018 17:36:09 GMT -6
Pretty sure I just read a post from CBTL on Dave's Facebook page. He is calling for 28-33 inches of snow this winter for St.Louis. So we have that going for us. He looks exactly how I imagined he would.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 17, 2018 18:04:18 GMT -6
Out having a fire and there is very thin cirrus overhead with a gravity wave pattern...anyone else notice this?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 17, 2018 18:06:57 GMT -6
Looks like WSC could see a bit of snow Saturday with a Manitoba Mauler swinging down across the OHV. I saw that, but surface temps look awfully warm. I'm really craving snow worse than any year I can remember. Been reading about the Groundhog Day blizzard. 70 mph winds and 20 inches of snow lol. Reminded me we had a blizzard warning for several counties. Wish I could find the thread, bet it was nuts. I'll never forget waking up to a blizzard warning and 24" of snow forecast only to hear SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSizzle. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 17, 2018 19:13:21 GMT -6
Horrible call. Ball was over the wall. Fans were not reaching over. Can't be interference.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 17, 2018 19:52:11 GMT -6
Horrible call. Ball was over the wall. Fans were not reaching over. Can't be interference. Yeah, once the ball is outside the playing field, fans have a right to react to the ball. I think he would have lost the ball and/or glove if not for the fan anyway based on where his elbow was going to hit the wall. Guess we'll never know... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 18, 2018 2:02:41 GMT -6
Evidence suggest that “Tornado Alley” is shifting east
I haven’t had time to really read the study and look at the data and findings but it suggest that tornadoes and tornado environments and increasing in Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky and decreasing in the traditional tornado alley.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 18, 2018 4:31:48 GMT -6
Horrible call. Ball was over the wall. Fans were not reaching over. Can't be interference. Yeah, once the ball is outside the playing field, fans have a right to react to the ball. I think he would have lost the ball and/or glove if not for the fan anyway based on where his elbow was going to hit the wall. Guess we'll never know... I didn't realize the original call was out. Impossible to find conclusive evidence his arm was over the wall but that was pretty easily inferred by looking at it straight on. None of those fans will leaning forward or had their arms extended towards the field. Just goes to show first call is most important call |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 18, 2018 15:16:44 GMT -6
Spider webs are flying. I imagine around Sunset I'm going to see some pretty cool spider webs in the grass and stuff when sun angle is right
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 18, 2018 15:38:51 GMT -6
The sun angle is dropping and spider webs are everywhere
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 18, 2018 17:15:21 GMT -6
Horrible call. Ball was over the wall. Fans were not reaching over. Can't be interference. Yeah, once the ball is outside the playing field, fans have a right to react to the ball. I think he would have lost the ball and/or glove if not for the fan anyway based on where his elbow was going to hit the wall. Guess we'll never know... I looked at it again. It was really hard to tell. Those guys did extend their arms out at the last second. My best guess is contact was made directly above the wall. How close can you get to 50/50? WOW |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 18, 2018 20:34:35 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 18, 2018 20:44:55 GMT -6
Just for the record- I disagree with NOAA on the winter forecast
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 18, 2018 21:01:33 GMT -6
Just for the record- I disagree with NOAA on the winter forecast I agree with your disagreement. Honestly, of all the long term winter forecasts I see each year, the official NOAA one seems to be the least accurate. Almost always call for above normal temps and below normal precip it seems. The way they draw their maps also makes little sense. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 18, 2018 21:24:42 GMT -6
Just for the record- I disagree with NOAA on the winter forecast I agree with your disagreement. Honestly, of all the long term winter forecasts I see each year, the official NOAA one seems to be the least accurate. Almost always call for above normal temps and below normal precip it seems. The way they draw their maps also makes little sense. I can’t tell you the last time I looked at a NOAA seasonal outlook. Like you said they always seem to be wrong and the maps are just odd. The problem with seasonal outlooks is that all it takes is one freak storm or odd pattern to completely change the narrative. A few years ago DC got almost all their snow for the season in one freak Nor’easter and ended up above average in snowfall for the season. I’m not saying seasonal outlooks are useless by any means, just that they can be right 95% of the time, but that other 5% can change everything |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 18, 2018 22:19:54 GMT -6
It seems like NOAA is of the idea that all El Ninos are created equal as are La Ninas. We know that is certainly not the case.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 19, 2018 0:39:34 GMT -6
I'm kinda'looking forward to Glenn's winter forecast on November...14? I'll be interested to see how it differs from the ones Dave Murray has done over the years and how it's similar. And , of course, what his forecast looks like and whether he goes out on the white Christmas prediction limb.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 19, 2018 4:54:51 GMT -6
I'm kinda'looking forward to Glenn's winter forecast on November...14? I'll be interested to see how it differs from the ones Dave Murray has done over the years and how it's similar. And , of course, what his forecast looks like and whether he goes out on the white Christmas prediction limb. I didn't hear Glenn was doing a forecast??? I know Dave mentioned he is still doing one this yr. I assume it will be a written one on Facebook? That's cool about Glenn though. |
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 19, 2018 5:54:42 GMT -6
I just read on FB what a hometown meteorologist from Michigan noted that the Western Arctic has the highest amount of ice in mid October since 2004! Hope this helps our winter!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 19, 2018 6:40:10 GMT -6
I'm kinda'looking forward to Glenn's winter forecast on November...14? I'll be interested to see how it differs from the ones Dave Murray has done over the years and how it's similar. And , of course, what his forecast looks like and whether he goes out on the white Christmas prediction limb. I didn't hear Glenn was doing a forecast??? I know Dave mentioned he is still doing one this yr. I assume it will be a written one on Facebook? That's cool about Glenn though. He mentioned it on the 5 PM news last night. John Fuller did the weather and then Glenn did a live shot from a NWS conference in DC when he mentioned it
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 19, 2018 7:53:39 GMT -6
I just read on FB what a hometown meteorologist from Michigan noted that the Western Arctic has the highest amount of ice in mid October since 2004! Hope this helps our winter! That doesn't really reflect on the ice coverage map, but since he is looking at the western region only it could be legit. Did he link any sources? |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Oct 19, 2018 9:19:04 GMT -6
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 19, 2018 9:58:54 GMT -6
Todd, that’s the one!!!!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 19, 2018 10:15:23 GMT -6
Pretty sure I just read a post from CBTL on Dave's Facebook page. He is calling for 28-33 inches of snow this winter for St.Louis. So we have that going for us. He looks exactly how I imagined he would. lol. i read that post too. good catch. very similar writing style. according to his profile, he is living in denver, CO but lists his hometown as Chicago. does anybody know if he is on other forums around the country? ive always tried to figure out his interest in st louis winters. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 19, 2018 10:34:22 GMT -6
Pretty sure I just read a post from CBTL on Dave's Facebook page. He is calling for 28-33 inches of snow this winter for St.Louis. So we have that going for us. He looks exactly how I imagined he would. lol. i read that post too. good catch. very similar writing style. according to his profile, he is living in denver, CO but lists his hometown as Chicago. does anybody know if he is on other forums around the country? ive always tried to figure out his interest in st louis winters. That's almost gotta be him. Like you said very similar writing from what I remember. I do believe he is on a national forum too. Total badass, btw. Lol. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 19, 2018 10:36:23 GMT -6
im in the same camp as others. noaa factors in decadal trends which is reasonable at the long lead. but in novembers outlook they may change it..i suspect the a large portion of the east will be below normal in temps from the great lakes to the eastern oh valley and portions of the mid atlantic states. mo will be ec in all categories. but this pattern shld favor more chances for snow, especially for southern mo. el nino as we traditionally know it, will be less of a factor.jmo.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 19, 2018 10:52:19 GMT -6
I’d be happy with 30 inches this winter!
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