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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 11:05:25 GMT -6
The GEFS is a thing of marvelousness
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 11:09:54 GMT -6
It always nice to wake up and have several pages of post to catch up on.
And ya the GEFS is really looking good. Basically a warning event up 44 into the metro
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2019 11:10:55 GMT -6
Is the GEFS the average of the ensembles?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 11:13:43 GMT -6
Ya this is the mean snowfall from all the ensemble runs  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 11:15:36 GMT -6
The ukmet is a little drier from last night
Has 8-10" through the immediate metro.
5"+ for almost everyone
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Post by mchafin on Jan 8, 2019 11:17:26 GMT -6
I can't find this graphic. Where'd you get it? |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 8, 2019 11:46:01 GMT -6
where is the EURO?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 8, 2019 11:46:48 GMT -6
John Fuller just asked for some wiggle room because of how far away the event is. And then posted a 3-5“ map across most of the area.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 11:52:11 GMT -6
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 8, 2019 11:52:36 GMT -6
Are the temperatures looking more "winter like" after this things gets out of here, or are we back to the balmy temps of the last few weeks? Yeah, snow will be nice, but will be even more exciting if they are leading up to more seasonable temperatures afterwards. I would hate to see a March snow scenario setting up here where it snows a foot and two days later its 65 degrees!
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 8, 2019 12:07:19 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 12:20:46 GMT -6
Euro is alittle beefy this run
6”+ for everyone
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 12:25:00 GMT -6
The kuchera maps on the Euro are printing out a foot for a good part of the metro. That seems alittle high to me. I’ll post some QPF numbers in a minute.
The euro does hit us with a weak deformation zone to
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 12:28:07 GMT -6
The kuchera maps on the Euro are printing out a foot for a good part of the metro. That seems alittle high to me. I’ll post some QPF numbers in a minute. The euro does hit us with a weak deformation zone to Look forward to seeing the qpf. Very nice to hear the Euro rocks. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 12:29:12 GMT -6
Euro has .6 to .8 QPF for everyone. .7 in the metro. The expanse of the snowfield is awesome and the metro is square in the middle. This could be one of those systems where everyone gets hit good
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 8, 2019 12:37:02 GMT -6
Oh my!! The EURO is beefy!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 12:57:12 GMT -6
The GFS and EURO are both in outstanding agreement right now. Refreshing to see since they are usually showing different solutions 48 hours before an event
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Post by ams3389 on Jan 8, 2019 12:57:22 GMT -6
Chris for the win in the am... on vacation again after a holiday vacation too haha.... I miss chris in the evening myself. I wonder if he goes to evenings when Glenn is on vacation like Glenn did for Dave!? Where's your level of interest with this one, Chris? That last post gives me a hint. Im trying to not pay attention. I am supposedly on vacation this week. But spent most of the weekend at work...and all day yesterday...working on non-broadcast technical stuff. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 8, 2019 12:58:34 GMT -6
12z EURO QPF...a thing of beauty. Just look at it. Would ya just look at it?!!  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2019 13:00:34 GMT -6
A lot going for this one...no erratic moving surface low, relatively cold air in place, cold air aloft coming into the system, HUGE precip shield.
That last one being the most important and frankly unusual.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 8, 2019 13:04:07 GMT -6
John Fuller just asked for some wiggle room because of how far away the event is. And then posted a 3-5“ map across most of the area. The public demands numbers early. Wish public forecasters could just say potential for impacts....even low, med, or high impact is more meaningful than numbers that will likely go awry. Now the public could roast him if the storm misses us or gives us 2 to 3 inches of snow instead of 5. I get that the public perceives numbers as useful, but thats because joe public is going to tell his colleague at the water cooler that he heard we are going to get 5 inches of snow. Honestly, even the uncertainty on this forum...we dont know. I guess if we got 25 its not as bad than if we got missed because plans are altered. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 8, 2019 13:05:35 GMT -6
12z EURO QPF...a thing of beauty. Just look at it. Would ya just look at it?!! Vigilance alert....shld this be posted in light of chris request not to post euro since its licensed? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 8, 2019 13:10:01 GMT -6
12z EURO QPF...a thing of beauty. Just look at it. Would ya just look at it?!! Vigilance alert....shld this be posted in light of chris request not to post euro since its licensed? I think that just applies to the weatherbell maps but I could be wrong. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 8, 2019 13:10:10 GMT -6
John Fuller just asked for some wiggle room because of how far away the event is. And then posted a 3-5“ map across most of the area. The public demands numbers early. Wish public forecasters could just say potential for impacts....even low, med, or high impact is more meaningful than numbers that will likely go awry. Now the public could roast him if the storm misses us or gives us 2 to 3 inches of snow instead of 5. I get that the public perceives numbers as useful, but thats because joe public is going to tell his colleague at the water cooler that he heard we are going to get 5 inches of snow. Honestly, even the uncertainty on this forum...we dont know. I guess if we got 25 its not as bad than if we got missed because plans are altered. I completely understand what you are saying.
Unfortunately most of the masses do not. Even when he asks for wiggle room how many will quote what he said as "set in stone" fact. And then call him an incompetent or a liar if he misses low or high 5 days away.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 8, 2019 13:20:24 GMT -6
I thought so too hence why I didn’t post their version. If it is in violation then my bad and feel free to delete.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 8, 2019 13:22:29 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 8, 2019 13:25:14 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 13:25:15 GMT -6
The euro is free on weather.us.
Assuming the image is from there, nothing wrong with that.
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 8, 2019 13:26:26 GMT -6
GFS-FV3 continues to print out a foot + across the area. This model always seems to be high with precip amounts it seems like. What's its track record like for 3 days out?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 13:37:01 GMT -6
AO is tanking hard around the 16th.
Nao trends toward neutral or negative after the 16th as well.
Stormy and cold is a good combo I hear.
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