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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 10:01:30 GMT -6
Thank God the GFS is still good.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 13, 2019 10:02:42 GMT -6
We are as bi polar as the damn models. Yep we got a storm to track.  Bi-polar and ADHD....oh, look....squirrel!! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 10:03:56 GMT -6
The icon looks great
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 13, 2019 10:13:47 GMT -6
What does TWC base their forecasts from? I just saw that they have named the storm and are calling for 5 to 8 inches by Saturday.
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Post by sullivandave on Feb 13, 2019 10:14:10 GMT -6
I just love following this forum... oh look, squirrel.... LMAO
Thanks all!!
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 13, 2019 10:15:39 GMT -6
EPS gives the airport 90% odds of 1". The mean QPF is 0.4" which with a 12:1 ratio would be about 5".
If you take a blend of the EPS and SREF you get about 3" at the airport.
If you add in the GFS and the NAM bust potential you could make a case for starting lower. 1-2" seems like reasonable first guess at this stage of the game.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2019 10:20:31 GMT -6
Gem looks great
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 10:23:23 GMT -6
FV3 has 4" from I70 to the S.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 13, 2019 10:25:36 GMT -6
I don’t see why people are beginning to shake. Everything looks great this morning. NAM is not in good range but all models are steady as she goes. I’m still liking the idea of a nice 3-5” swath across the heart of the metro.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 10:29:50 GMT -6
I don’t see why people are beginning to shake. Everything looks great this morning. NAM is not in good range but all models are steady as she goes. I’m still liking the idea of a nice 3-5” swath across the heart of the metro. Because there is a ton of dry air |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 13, 2019 10:30:01 GMT -6
FV3 has a stripe of 3"+ on it's snow depth product in a line generally along Jefferson City to Arnold.
Right now the NAM and the NMB-cored SREF members are the ones showing bust potential. And I believe the NAM is built around the NMB core so that might explain the similarity.
I think it's too early to throw up the red flag on this one. Yellow flags are always warranted around here, but there's just not enough evidence to think this will be a dud just yet.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 10:33:24 GMT -6
I won't be relaxed until we are in the 18hr RAP range
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 10:39:41 GMT -6
Still like the 2-4” idea
NAM warrants a brief yellow flag but in the end I can’t give it much weight right now.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 13, 2019 10:44:29 GMT -6
I don’t see why people are beginning to shake. Everything looks great this morning. NAM is not in good range but all models are steady as she goes. I’m still liking the idea of a nice 3-5” swath across the heart of the metro. Because there is a ton of dry air Indeed it does but...the pattern this year has shown plenty of dry air and its not really been a problem to overcome. This one does have a much deeper layer to overcome but models are already taking this into account. Don’t get me wrong, I’d like to have the NAM on our side but I’m not shaking yet when we have the Big 3 on globals on board. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 10:47:26 GMT -6
The gem looks like it has come in line with the other models
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 13, 2019 10:51:16 GMT -6
I said this earlier, but almost every storm has trended drier in this timeframe. Then, they come back “juicier” as the event gets to within 12-18 hours.
Globals are still showing respectable p-wats.
NAM is basically saying dry air wins.
Biggest difference I can see is how the NAM handles the low in Canada vs. the globals. The globals are a little weaker with it, giving our storm a little more room to mature. The juicier the models, the weaker the low in Canada.
This one will need another day to day and a half to get resolved.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 13, 2019 11:04:28 GMT -6
The dry air on the NAM vs GFS isn't that much different. The thing missing from the NAM is the shortwave inducing height falls and vorticity advection. You can also see the effect this has on the WAA aspect. The NAM has the wind barbs bringing lower theta-e air into the area at 850mb whereas the GFS has the wind barbs going the exact opposite direction and bringing in higher theta-e air.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 12:14:22 GMT -6
Euro less juicy but still has 3-4" for much of the area
Still showing a good bit of ice across the southern counties
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 13, 2019 12:50:34 GMT -6
Euro less juicy but still has 3-4" for much of the area Still showing a good bit of ice across the southern counties I think less juicy is being generous. Idk, just not feeling optimistic about this one. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2019 12:59:14 GMT -6
Euro less juicy but still has 3-4" for much of the area Still showing a good bit of ice across the southern counties I think less juicy is being generous. Idk, just not feeling optimistic about this one. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical, but the euro isn’t one of them. It shows things about as good as they are going to get with this setup. Classic 2-5 area wide band. The previous runs showing 6+ had no chance. The euro holding strong at this range is huge. |
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Post by RyanD on Feb 13, 2019 12:59:45 GMT -6
I'm thinking 1-3" but more likely 1-2". There's too much dry air to overcome and the system isn't exactly a monster plus it is coming from the NW.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2019 13:02:03 GMT -6
12z Euro also looks decent with the Tuesday storm.
That thing is either going to get squashed or turn into something special.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 13:07:07 GMT -6
The euro has had a serious wet bias in the medium to long range this year
The only time that wet bias paid off was when we got that 12-17” snowstorm
It used to be the most conservative model with QPF but not recently
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 13, 2019 13:11:13 GMT -6
To me we have had almost every scenario this season from big wet heavy snow to dry powdery snows to a fairly impactful (travel wise) freezing rain system last weekend. Only seems fitting that we get a DAM type system yet and then also wait for the infamous split the CWA scenario as well. I make money on this stuff and I’m over ready for spring!! 😊
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 13:54:31 GMT -6
The euro has 4-6" South of 44/64. And 4" roughly everywhere else. That's all from our clipper  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 14:10:43 GMT -6
Through 30 hours the Nam is substantially better.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 13, 2019 14:31:25 GMT -6
18z Nam still peters it out...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 14:36:48 GMT -6
It doesn't have a coherent system
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2019 15:34:19 GMT -6
18z rgem and Icon look great
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 15:35:58 GMT -6
NAM is clearly the outlier right now so you can't put much, if any, weight in its solution. I'd be saying the same thing if it was showing a foot+ of snow
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