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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2019 20:15:57 GMT -6
NAM at 36h looks much better , we will see if it trends towards the other guidance
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 13, 2019 20:18:13 GMT -6
Nam *kinda* on board... sharp cutoff.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2019 20:23:12 GMT -6
NAM looks way better, huge shift to other models. Not much in the metro but very close now with the precipitation shield.
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 13, 2019 20:34:56 GMT -6
NAM looks way better, huge shift to other models. Not much in the metro but very close now with the precipitation shield. Certainly looks like it's playing catch up. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 13, 2019 20:37:16 GMT -6
I love the NAM tonight! This is a clipper system and it doesn’t seem to have a bias to the north like I believe it does with southern systems. Therefore...taking into account the fact that clippers love to shift northeast at the last minute. I still love the idea of a 3-5” storm for immediate metro to the west banking in that shift.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 20:39:19 GMT -6
Hi res NAM is pretty good looking, especially on the Mo side
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2019 20:56:19 GMT -6
Yes the 3km NAM looks way better, the NAM went from bone dry To fairly similar in one model run. Great trends for sure. I was hoping it wasn’t still dry.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 13, 2019 20:58:29 GMT -6
That's definitely a big improvement on the NAM...just need it to come north a bit as well.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 21:16:03 GMT -6
The rgem looks nice Still snowing in the metro east at the end of the run.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 13, 2019 21:18:09 GMT -6
I guess I shouldn't expect more than about an inch or so of sleet/snow combo?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 21:21:05 GMT -6
I guess I shouldn't expect more than about an inch or so of sleet/snow combo? Why not? |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2019 21:22:42 GMT -6
Icon still looks good , so far so good
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2019 21:38:08 GMT -6
Icon is trying to go boom with the potential storm next week.
As the weeks tick by, these day 5-7 storms become more important.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 13, 2019 21:38:13 GMT -6
I guess I shouldn't expect more than about an inch or so of sleet/snow combo? Why not? Well the snowfall products are quite low for down here though we have some pretty heavy precip. I'm expecting sleeet to dominate and it takes a lot of that to add up. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2019 21:50:17 GMT -6
Gfs is pretty much 2 inches for most
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 21:50:29 GMT -6
The GFS looks fantastic.
Perfect
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2019 21:51:28 GMT -6
Seems models have ahifted sw with a heavier band in sw mo
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 21:53:57 GMT -6
Gfs is pretty much 2 inches for most Can't say I agree with that  |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2019 21:54:52 GMT -6
Gem looks great all models continue to show 1-3” through the metro. Should be another WWA type event. Temps will be cold, snow should stick good.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2019 21:55:49 GMT -6
Gfs is pretty much 2 inches for most Can't say I agree with that All that is different is the kuchera method, but okay |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2019 21:56:10 GMT -6
I was going say the same thing, the gfs and gem look great , the three globals have been very consistent for this storm
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 21:58:15 GMT -6
00z FV3  |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2019 21:59:33 GMT -6
I like that 3.8” right by my house in Wentzville.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 22:01:57 GMT -6
Can't say I agree with that All that is different is the kuchera method, but okay I think that matters Temps are going to be in the mid 20s. That method it self will probably be underscored because of it's bias at the mid levels. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2019 22:06:01 GMT -6
Should be 12-1 or 13-1 maybe a little better type snow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2019 22:06:45 GMT -6
All that is different is the kuchera method, but okay I think that matters Temps are going to be in the mid 20s. That method it self will probably be underscored because of it's bias at the mid levels. Whatever is added by higher ratios can easily be subtracted by model bias in low QPF environments. Models overestimate in low QPF setups and underestimate in high QPF setups. The gfs showed 0.2-0.3 raw. I stand by my comment. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2019 22:06:58 GMT -6
Rush hour Friday is going to probably be a mess for sure. I know I’m going home at noon
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 22:07:15 GMT -6
00z FV3 That's beautiful. |
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 13, 2019 22:07:58 GMT -6
I like that 3.8” right by my house in Wentzville. That would mean at least 6" on Mt. St. Peters. Sorry...couldn't resist. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2019 22:10:30 GMT -6
At least 6” at Mt. St Peter’s possibly more they will likely need to upgrade to a WSW there
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