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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 15:41:40 GMT -6
SREF mean is on a slow, but steady rise
Mean currently is 1.25"
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 13, 2019 15:41:41 GMT -6
NAM is clearly the outlier right now so you can't put much, if any, weight in its solution. I'd be saying the same thing if it was showing a foot+ of snow It gets a respectful nod if only for the fact that it is showing an entirely plausible solution... Resulting from a very dry in flow from the NE. At the very least… much of the precept to the North East of the Max band on the other models you should be seriously questioned… with an exceptionally take radiant likely |
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 13, 2019 15:44:16 GMT -6
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 13, 2019 15:46:39 GMT -6
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 15:47:18 GMT -6
The 18z GFS is stronger more amplified.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 15:50:59 GMT -6
The 18z GFS is stronger more amplified. It's moved is mainband directly through the metro. With essentially no snow down by Farmington and St gem. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 15:51:33 GMT -6
Ya that dry air could really be a pain in the backside
Never underestime the DAM
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 13, 2019 15:54:08 GMT -6
The 18z GFS is stronger more amplified. It's moved is mainband directly through the metro. With essentially no snow down by Farmington and St gem. Yea nice and sleety down this way. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 16:01:58 GMT -6
It's moved is mainband directly through the metro. With essentially no snow down by Farmington and St gem. Yea nice and sleety down this way. I don't know how you emotionally handle this hobby. It's wrenching enough being as far South as I am You're in the tropical jungle down there |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 16:02:06 GMT -6
18z FV3 looks good I just ran across this site and don't know much about the products but im assuming its using 10:1 ratios Site link: www.weathernerds.org/models/ |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 16:07:01 GMT -6
That site has some excellent FV3 products that update very quickly
Think I just found my new go to site for the FV3
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 16:10:42 GMT -6
That site has some excellent FV3 products that update very quickly Think I just found my new go to site for the FV3 Yeah. The gfs has a really nice vort maximum. But we don't want it to get any stronger. It's already pumping up too much warm air in the mid-levels. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 16:11:54 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2019 16:16:15 GMT -6
18z FV3 looks good I just ran across this site and don't know much about the products but im assuming its using 10:1 ratios Site link: www.weathernerds.org/models/That fits my conceptual expectations with this system very well...widespread 2" amounts with 3-4" in banding...favoring the MO side. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 13, 2019 16:33:11 GMT -6
Yea nice and sleety down this way. I don't know how you emotionally handle this hobby. It's wrenching enough being as far South as I am You're in the tropical jungle down there Haha it's tough sometimes. Though a few weeks ago it looked like Fargo while you guys got the shaft. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2019 16:33:43 GMT -6
So decreased totals to 1 inch, and added sleet. Ill pass
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 17:11:34 GMT -6
GEFS looks slightly better on the 18z run. It's highlighting along and north of 70 for the max band
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 13, 2019 17:12:18 GMT -6
If 99 worked for TWC this would for sure be "Winter Storm Meh."
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 13, 2019 18:14:47 GMT -6
Crickets...wish we had that fresh corner smell.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 13, 2019 18:23:54 GMT -6
Does it really make a huge difference if there is a different thread started for every month/storm etc? If it was me I’d only do it for each season.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 13, 2019 18:41:51 GMT -6
I think we should let this thread run to march first then say welcome spring
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 18:42:26 GMT -6
I'll take 2" and be very happy with it.
It looks like another 1-2" on Saturday for the Northern 2/3rd of the metro
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2019 18:49:38 GMT -6
I'll take 2" and be very happy with it. It looks like another 1-2" on Saturday for the Northern 2/3rd of the metro With the 850 low tracking through Kirksville I don’t see much snow Saturday night. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2019 19:05:51 GMT -6
18z euro has shifted its narrow band of 4-6 inches south of St. Louis targeting the next tier of counties.
Around 2 inches outside of the band, especially on the northeast side where the dry air will eat away at the precip shield.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2019 19:14:06 GMT -6
I still think 1-3” through the metro centered on I 70 and just south
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Post by TK on Feb 13, 2019 19:27:50 GMT -6
Gentlemen - How concerned should we be about this hitting Friday evening rush hour? I suspect it should not accumulate as quickly as the last rush hour disaster?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 13, 2019 19:29:18 GMT -6
2 to 3 seems like a good bet. Concern abt evening rush hour is high.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 13, 2019 19:32:24 GMT -6
I like 2 to 3 friday night and another inch saturday night. Tuesday tbd.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 13, 2019 19:42:12 GMT -6
That site has some excellent FV3 products that update very quickly Think I just found my new go to site for the FV3 I've had this site bookmarked for awhile, but I never use it. It looks like they've added a lot of cool model products. I might have to stop by more frequently as well. |
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 13, 2019 19:51:54 GMT -6
Gentlemen - How concerned should we be about this hitting Friday evening rush hour? I suspect it should not accumulate as quickly as the last rush hour disaster? High impact |
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