Chris's Corner - Heading into Fall

The record snowfall for both days involved is a trace

Still scratching my head over the the trace of snow the NWS recorded in August.

I know it snowed in 1993 on Oct 30 and Oct 31 down this way.... had a solid dusting back to back nights

I do recall a 1/2“ or so of wet, only on the grass, snow a few days to a week before Halloween in the late 60s. IIRC it came in the evening and was gone by morning. Temps must have been really marginal

And Friday. Interesting.

Columbia is, not so much STL

I expect the storm in Minnesota by Tuesday

Beautiful storm for Halloween on the 12z gfs as well.

Hopefully we can have this pattern sustain itself for a few months.

Step away for a few hours and people are talking Snow on Halloween.

If somebody doesn't use "Record-Setting Snowfall" as a headline, they're really missing out on a great opportunity.

Don't forget to turn off your outside faucets and bring in your hoses.

So it's unanimously settled, we're getting 2-4 inches of snow by Halloween.

Snows better than freezing rain any day!

My thoughts are that we'll be active and cold (compared to normal) through November 2nd-5th, then we'll see a pull back to a milder and possibly wetter pattern with some late fall severe chances (1-2 instances) which will go on till the 18th-21st, then we should see the bottom fall out again for the final 8-9 days of November with something of interest around Turkey Day into the first days of December with another pull back for a couple weeks around Mid December to as late as Christmas with what might be some brutal cold around New Years into mid January before moderation take over for 2-3 weeks which takes us to February which models seem to be honing in on as the Climax of the Winter with brutal cold and perhaps a few good systems from both the clipper track and a southern storm or 2 which could result in snow on the ground for a couple weeks possibly with the pattern continuing into March but with some increasingly warmer surges the second half of the month but Winter could still visit us well into April at times.

November:

Temps: Slightly Below Average (warm spell mid month could erase most of the negative departures)
Precip: Near Average
Snow: Let's go above average not really hard to do in November

December:

Temps: Despite a cold start and possibly cold finish, most of the month looks relatively mild to warm compared to normal (So above average as a whole)
Precip: Near to slightly below average
Snow: Below Average (Note that any subtle shift in the pattern could cause high bust potential here...)

January:

Temps: Below Average as a whole, but expect a strong thaw 12-24th Should turn cold to brutal cold again near month's end
Precip: Near Average
Snow: Near average perhaps slightly above especially north and south of us (the old St. Louis Splits)

February:

Temps: Well Below Normal, almost solid cold through and through with only a brief break or 2 that lasts for a couple days each, some record are possible if conditions are right.
Precip: Let's go slightly above normal especially south of I-70.
Snow: Above normal, possibly well above especially south of I-70 with any southern lows.

March:

Temps: Near normal as a whole but a cold start and a milder finish
Precip: Near normal
Snow: Above normal especially the northern 2/3rds of the area otherwise near to slightly above normal.