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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 16, 2019 15:00:23 GMT -6
Monday's frontal passage looks to bring a good soaking...especially if it slows down and a secondary low develops with the impulse digging into the base of the trof like models have been hinting at. Might need to keep an eye on strong storm potential as well. Models show potential for a light freeze towards D8 with the deep NW flow. Agree on your points. Overall, while we cld see a soaker, i dont anticipate the torrential or flash flooding type of rain. D8 freeze potential is there but i dont think we will have to wait too long for the next freeze. We average around halloween iirc for our first freeze and i think we will have no trouble dropping below freezing by then. However, what im seeing is not sustained cold but a quick hit of cold alternating with warm. Today's EURO is close to flakes here towards the end of it's run...doubtful that will verify but it's fun to look at. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Oct 16, 2019 18:38:39 GMT -6
Went on a long walk today along the Keystone trail up here. Saw one black woolly worm, and a few that had the tan middles with black ends.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 17, 2019 1:09:06 GMT -6
Watch out se KS and Eastern OK, Euro has a foot of snow falling there in 10 days. Tulsa gets hammered.  |
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 17, 2019 6:27:47 GMT -6
Frosty this morning
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 17, 2019 10:36:14 GMT -6
Winter 2019-2020   |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 17, 2019 10:47:11 GMT -6
Have TS Nestor expected to form in the GOM. May be a problem for the Florida gulf coast.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 17, 2019 10:56:46 GMT -6
The pattern emerging as we head late in the month just screams winter. It's a shame its not happening a month from now
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 17, 2019 12:03:03 GMT -6
We got off to a quick start last November as well.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 17, 2019 12:05:04 GMT -6
We got off to a quick start last November as well. We did, and we thought it was all over because of that. Then it recovered after a warm rainy December and we had a good Jan./Feb. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 17, 2019 12:17:04 GMT -6
Winter 2019-2020 Thats not a bad forecast for us if you like winter. It also is pretty consistent with my thoughts of a snowy upper midwest although im thinking the western flank of that precip area can extend further south. I am thinking iowa and minnesota into wisconsin are going to be well above avg for snow. That, imo, bodes well for us as well but the northern track should be active. Im tossing around in my head a number that i think is a good educated guess for snow at lambert. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 17, 2019 14:03:35 GMT -6
Gotta be honest, I've never seen an NWS winter temp and precip outlook turn out accurate.
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Post by maddogchief on Oct 17, 2019 14:06:09 GMT -6
I for one am not hoping for a snowy November. I’d much rather glide into winter and have a sustained snowpack rather than one and done events with weeks of boring weather in between.
My thoughts are as we move forward into November will be in a 7 day week, 2-3 cold days, 2-3 average days, and then 1-2 mild days before the cycle repeats.
It is looking like the storm track will likely set up along the US-36/I-72 and south corridor.
Teleconnections will be of better use this year with the ENSO neutral conditions as well. Keep an eye on the PNA (+ is better for us) EPO (- is better) and then of course the NAO and AO to see what patterns will be locked in.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 17, 2019 17:12:59 GMT -6
Winter 2019-2020 Thats not a bad forecast for us if you like winter. It also is pretty consistent with my thoughts of a snowy upper midwest although im thinking the western flank of that precip area can extend further south. I am thinking iowa and minnesota into wisconsin are going to be well above avg for snow. That, imo, bodes well for us as well but the northern track should be active. Im tossing around in my head a number that i think is a good educated guess for snow at lambert. After what I've seen so far this early fall season I would tend to agree with most of what you are thinking. Blocking will play a large role this year IMO and make for some good setups but also bouts of warmth when it breaks down and the ridge can sneak in or we catch a warm sector or three. |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Oct 17, 2019 17:37:52 GMT -6
 Successful launch to edge of space today! We had a couple hiccups, one which resulted in our payload tilting and the camera facing up for most of the flight. We did get a cool shot of the ballon burst though! We launched from Wentzville, landed just southwest of Pinkneyville, and reached about 85,000 feet. Most importantly the students had a blast. They really took pride in their jobs and were on the edge of their seats as they watched the progress from “Mission Control”. It was so cool hearing the cheers when I called to report that I had successfully recovered the payload. We will definitely be launching again. My principal was so excited he wants us to do it again in the spring! |
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 17, 2019 18:42:29 GMT -6
Wow- the earth really is flat
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 17, 2019 19:25:15 GMT -6
That should be breaking news. And being called a round arther should now be derogatory.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 17, 2019 21:21:28 GMT -6
Successful launch to edge of space today! We had a couple hiccups, one which resulted in our payload tilting and the camera facing up for most of the flight. We did get a cool shot of the ballon burst though! We launched from Wentzville, landed just southwest of Pinkneyville, and reached about 85,000 feet. Most importantly the students had a blast. They really took pride in their jobs and were on the edge of their seats as they watched the progress from “Mission Control”. It was so cool hearing the cheers when I called to report that I had successfully recovered the payload. We will definitely be launching again. My principal was so excited he wants us to do it again in the spring! Is there a kit for this? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 18, 2019 6:01:27 GMT -6
If it were a few weeks from now we would be talking about a snow chance next Friday. As of right now we are looking at possibly an upper 30's to 40ish degree rain. If this pattern continues to establish itself we will have lots of fun this winter. Negative NAO doing its thing.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 18, 2019 9:30:50 GMT -6
Next weekend we could see a freeze at Lambert. If that doesnt pan out, a freeze on Halloween morning. It may be coat weather for trick or treaters that evening. Its a rollercoaster temperature pattern. Precip will be subdued...im thinking half inch monday will be our biggest soaker over the next week or so before another chance of rain late next week that ushers in much colder temperatures. That rain could be a bit more of a soaker.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Oct 18, 2019 9:47:23 GMT -6
Successful launch to edge of space today! We had a couple hiccups, one which resulted in our payload tilting and the camera facing up for most of the flight. We did get a cool shot of the ballon burst though! We launched from Wentzville, landed just southwest of Pinkneyville, and reached about 85,000 feet. Most importantly the students had a blast. They really took pride in their jobs and were on the edge of their seats as they watched the progress from “Mission Control”. It was so cool hearing the cheers when I called to report that I had successfully recovered the payload. We will definitely be launching again. My principal was so excited he wants us to do it again in the spring! Is there a kit for this? This is the kit we used. It is a little pricey, but it is pretty foolproof and highly reusable. Our school district has a foundation that provides mini-grants to teachers to do innovative projects. I was awarded one for this last spring. Now that we have the kit, future launches will be much cheaper. There are also lots of tutorials online for how to send up a weather balloon on the cheap, but I don't know how reliable they are. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 18, 2019 12:08:27 GMT -6
The 12z GFS is pure fantasy ... maybe... but it is getting close to something historic. At the very least, it is a good teaser for winter  |
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 18, 2019 12:18:32 GMT -6
When ya’ll know for sure on that 12z, do fill us in!🤔
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 18, 2019 13:01:14 GMT -6
The 12z GFS is pure fantasy ... maybe... but it is getting close to something historic. At the very least, it is a good teaser for winter Both the GFS and EC have been showing some flavor of a potential snow event across the central/southern plains towards next weekend...wouldn't that be something? |
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 18, 2019 13:10:00 GMT -6
The 12z GFS is pure fantasy ... maybe... but it is getting close to something historic. At the very least, it is a good teaser for winter Why? What does it show? Just noticed I got promoted on here lol. 4 star. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 18, 2019 13:36:35 GMT -6
Flakes before Halloween would be crazy.Yet there’s enough moisture and cold air floating around late month for crazy to happen
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 18, 2019 13:46:11 GMT -6
The GOM has given birth to Nestor.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 18, 2019 13:59:49 GMT -6
The GOM has given birth to Nestor. i guess that means it is not an empty-nestor anymore I know.... it is very bad. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 18, 2019 14:09:11 GMT -6
Chris said we're getting a historic snowstorm by Halloween, yay!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 18, 2019 14:30:57 GMT -6
Chris said we're getting a historic snowstorm by Halloween, yay! I'll be sure to post that on FB. ;-) |
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 18, 2019 14:37:19 GMT -6
Did anyone tell the models to wait til November?
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