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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 4, 2019 1:41:00 GMT -6
Guess I’m an oddball, but I actually like the short days and long nights of winter, so the time change doesn’t bother me. For me, it’s a time to catch up on reading, watching some television, playing games with the family, etc. The early sunsets make my evenings off work seem much longer, too. In addition to what you said I like not getting up and having my breakfast while it's still dark in the mornings. That said I don't see how people farther north live with less than 3 or 4 hours of daylight in the winter and almost non-stop daylight in the summer. Has to do crazy things to their circadian rhythm |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 4, 2019 4:46:43 GMT -6
While I hate darkness at 430pm... I do love the models earlier arrival.
As for the late Wed night/Thursday system... color me skeptical. Im going with light rain/snow mix but everything looks prett sheared coming out of the southwest. I thinknour best potential may come from jet stream dynamics as the region will lie briefly in the rear enterance region of the jet Thursday morning.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 4, 2019 8:36:24 GMT -6
Just like the severity of upcoming winter can be gauged by things such as woolly worms, persimmon seeds, wheel well sizes, the upcoming week can be gauged by the number of posts per hour in this forum...or the number of hours per post.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 4, 2019 9:52:10 GMT -6
GFS is now on board with a gem-like solution
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 4, 2019 9:53:40 GMT -6
continues to look like a less-than-impressive setup later this week.
southern stream vort gets mauled to bits by the northern energy.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 4, 2019 10:21:26 GMT -6
GFS says suppression city for Vets Day as well. Though VERY cold for this time of year. That's really been the idea so far...a dominant NW flow.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 4, 2019 12:13:31 GMT -6
Euro still showing some mood snow on Thursday. I’ll take any flakes we can get in early November
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 4, 2019 12:51:59 GMT -6
Euro still showing some mood snow on Thursday. I’ll take any flakes we can get in early November The extreme cold modeled for next week is the bigger story in my opinion |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 4, 2019 13:19:58 GMT -6
Euro still showing some mood snow on Thursday. I’ll take any flakes we can get in early November The extreme cold modeled for next week is the bigger story in my opinion Agree...and really it starts this Friday. Highs in the upper 30's with full sun in early November is pretty much unheard of. Then the slight moderation over the weekend before another even stronger arctic blast next week. I've personally never seen so much persistent cold this early in the year. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 4, 2019 13:24:57 GMT -6
Perfect set up for a nice warm run from turkey day to Santa day.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 4, 2019 13:30:59 GMT -6
Perfect set up for a nice warm run from turkey day to Santa day. You're likely right. |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 4, 2019 13:50:24 GMT -6
Warm turkey day to santa day soumds perfect. That way we can travel without trouble plus that should make jan and feb snowy aroumd here
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 4, 2019 13:59:30 GMT -6
Wall to wall winter with record cold and snow...
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Nov 4, 2019 14:06:57 GMT -6
The fact that we are even talking about seeing flakes for the second time and it’s only November 4th is awesome. I’m not going to jinx it. I like all the signs I am seeing so far - from wooly worms and Worldseries optimism to Snowman’s pessimism - time to de-winterize the frivometer and prepare to post overblown NAM maps.
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Nov 4, 2019 15:05:45 GMT -6
Pivotal Weather announces it is offering a set of free ECMWF maps.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 4, 2019 15:44:51 GMT -6
The extreme cold modeled for next week is the bigger story in my opinion Agree...and really it starts this Friday. Highs in the upper 30's with full sun in early November is pretty much unheard of. Then the slight moderation over the weekend before another even stronger arctic blast next week. I've personally never seen so much persistent cold this early in the year. It was like this in 2014 |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 4, 2019 16:03:03 GMT -6
Agree...and really it starts this Friday. Highs in the upper 30's with full sun in early November is pretty much unheard of. Then the slight moderation over the weekend before another even stronger arctic blast next week. I've personally never seen so much persistent cold this early in the year. It was like this in 2014 Looks like that was a lackluster season in STL. I think a lot is setup good for a cold winter. Siberian snow cover in October finished way above normal. Cold doesn’t always mean snowy though Crap, that was the GHD blizzard fail and when Boston got all the snow that ever fell anywhere on earth. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 4, 2019 16:49:56 GMT -6
Agree...and really it starts this Friday. Highs in the upper 30's with full sun in early November is pretty much unheard of. Then the slight moderation over the weekend before another even stronger arctic blast next week. I've personally never seen so much persistent cold this early in the year. It was like this in 2014 You’re right, I do remember opening morning of deer season being in the teens. That was a decent winter. Most were in the 15-20 inch range. Then it didn’t snow for 4 years after that. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 4, 2019 17:33:03 GMT -6
Ive seen several comparisons, all of which were fairly lackluster in terms of snow and cold. 93-94 was well below normal for snow. I think what makes this winter different is that it is an enso neutral year following a very weak and subtle el nino. We will surely see a long stretch of warmth as we always do but in the end i think for snowfall we should be fine. Im sticking with my number...20 inches of snow. Book it.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 4, 2019 18:22:44 GMT -6
Pivotal Weather announces it is offering a set of free ECMWF maps. It's likely many sites will follow along. ECMWF changed their licensing terms. This was mentioned a page or two back. |
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 4, 2019 18:51:08 GMT -6
Sprinkles and light showers from 10:00 this morning through this evening......wasn’t expecting that to be so persistent today.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 4, 2019 19:15:26 GMT -6
Pivotal Weather announces it is offering a set of free ECMWF maps. It's likely many sites will follow along. ECMWF changed their licensing terms. This was mentioned a page or two back. Weather.us had this last year. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 5, 2019 2:29:07 GMT -6
Wow... the 00z GFS Ensembles are CRAZY cold for mid-week next week... highs in the 20s...lows in the mid teens!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 5, 2019 2:47:00 GMT -6
Need to watch the Clipper system dropping southeast Friday night into Saturday AM. I would not be surprised to see a band of light snow ahead of the warm front. I'm not adding it just yet... but it is something to consider.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 5, 2019 8:11:41 GMT -6
Traveling to Michigan for my oldest cousins funeral, really looking forward to the cold and hopefully little snow(sarcasm)
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 5, 2019 10:21:58 GMT -6
Next 7 days look exceedingly boring and cold on the gfs.
Maybe someone will catch a period of light snow, but nothing worth getting invested in.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 5, 2019 10:29:21 GMT -6
ICON spins up a 1054 high along the front range. Brings single digits next week.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 5, 2019 10:33:17 GMT -6
Figured any action would be east of here, with the coldest air coming into the lakes and ne. No more "locked and loaded" GFS. Waaay too early to get anywhere near excited about anything.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 5, 2019 10:38:38 GMT -6
I agree Chris, eyes on the clipper Fri night into Sat. I hope it does something (a surprise) because otherwise it's going to be dry like others have alluded to. Let's see if we can get record cold next week tho the 12z GFS looks less bullish on the cold. Tho unclesam just said the ICON is going nuts on the cold!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 5, 2019 11:08:49 GMT -6
12z ukmet inspires some optimism with a 1003mb surface low spinning over Amarillo at hour 144 and a 1049 mb high pressing in at the Canadian border.
That would have potential if it can spin up before getting crushed.
Something to watch on the euro since the models are aligned
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