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Post by mchafin on Nov 2, 2019 15:23:43 GMT -6
Maybe the deer got wise to your shennanigans?
And i'm just joking before I get flagged for being offensive.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 2, 2019 15:41:53 GMT -6
18z Icon way north for Thursday now. Gfs on its own as usual
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Post by John G -west belleville on Nov 2, 2019 18:25:05 GMT -6
Armistice day 1940: 928mb (nws event page) Drove through Brighton this morning to go duck hunting, we have an irap blind up in macoupin county this weekend |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 2, 2019 18:45:51 GMT -6
Armistice day 1940: 928mb (nws event page) Drove through Brighton this morning to go duck hunting, we have an irap blind up in macoupin county this weekend Interesting, but I think somebody got a bad reading on that one. It’s so many standard deviations from the mean |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 2, 2019 18:45:58 GMT -6
Armistice day 1940: 928mb (nws event page) Drove through Brighton this morning to go duck hunting, we have an irap blind up in macoupin county this weekend Do any good? We were one bird shy of a 4 man goose limit last Saturday for the opener and shot 13 ducks Sunday. Hunting a farm pond outside of Shipman. Not much going on this weekend though... |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Nov 2, 2019 19:42:56 GMT -6
Armistice day 1940: 928mb (nws event page) Drove through Brighton this morning to go duck hunting, we have an irap blind up in macoupin county this weekend Do any good? We were one bird shy of a 4 man goose limit last Saturday for the opener and shot 13 ducks Sunday. Hunting a farm pond outside of Shipman. Not much going on this weekend though... Nope. Had a few looks, saw 30 ducks and 8 geese. Geese were on a mission, ducks got flared by the other blind demonstrating how effective the duck call is at conserving duck populations |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 2, 2019 21:33:49 GMT -6
Models come out one hour "earlier" starting tomorrow! Tis' the season
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 2, 2019 22:19:36 GMT -6
Gfs has rain in southern mo late week. Keeps moisture in the warm air with no snow to speak of.
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 3, 2019 0:52:21 GMT -6
Seeing the trend with the models the last several runs - I would guess we will see an accumulating snow before Thanksgiving
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 3, 2019 10:04:47 GMT -6
Looks like the gfs might finally win a round in the model wars. Thursday looks like a rain to cold or even dry.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 3, 2019 10:43:27 GMT -6
Looks like the gfs might finally win a round in the model wars. Thursday looks like a rain to cold or even dry. The ensembles don’t seem as suppressed as the operational runs. I think we’ll see the models trend wetter around here the next few runs |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 3, 2019 11:19:52 GMT -6
Looks like the gfs might finally win a round in the model wars. Thursday looks like a rain to cold or even dry. The ensembles don’t seem as suppressed as the operational runs. I think we’ll see the models trend wetter around here the next few runs 12z ggem looks better for Thursday. Day 8-10 range looks extremely interesting on the globals |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 3, 2019 12:22:10 GMT -6
Euro has a small amount of snow Thursday for the metro points north
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 3, 2019 16:35:18 GMT -6
We need that NAO to go negative or at least neutral otherwise the flow will continue to be quite progressive right?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 3, 2019 16:51:42 GMT -6
Can anyone venture a first look at the Veterans Day weekend forecast for the area? All indications are for dry weather, but I'd like to see what others on here are thinking. Heading down to the country for a flag ceremony to honor my dad's role in WWII. I realize things can change...just a first look.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 3, 2019 17:25:47 GMT -6
Can anyone venture a first look at the Veterans Day weekend forecast for the area? All indications are for dry weather, but I'd like to see what others on here are thinking. Heading down to the country for a flag ceremony to honor my dad's role in WWII. I realize things can change...just a first look. First look appears next weekend will be between potential weather systems (Thursday) and one early-mid following week. At least from a significant impact standpoint it looks fine. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 3, 2019 17:29:27 GMT -6
Can anyone venture a first look at the Veterans Day weekend forecast for the area? All indications are for dry weather, but I'd like to see what others on here are thinking. Heading down to the country for a flag ceremony to honor my dad's role in WWII. I realize things can change...just a first look. I need new glasses. The first time I read this, I was certain you asked about Valentines Day weekend...and I about spit out my dinner lol. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 3, 2019 18:29:38 GMT -6
cst stinks.
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Post by ElburnDave on Nov 3, 2019 18:50:35 GMT -6
Guess I’m an oddball, but I actually like the short days and long nights of winter, so the time change doesn’t bother me. For me, it’s a time to catch up on reading, watching some television, playing games with the family, etc. The early sunsets make my evenings off work seem much longer, too. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 3, 2019 19:14:43 GMT -6
18z ggem is nasty on Thursday. Rain to an icy mix to a few hours of moderate snow.
Would make for a rough evening commute.
Models have really struggled with this setup and have bounced around a lot outside of the gfs which has been consistently suppressed.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 3, 2019 19:24:19 GMT -6
Can anyone venture a first look at the Veterans Day weekend forecast for the area? All indications are for dry weather, but I'd like to see what others on here are thinking. Heading down to the country for a flag ceremony to honor my dad's role in WWII. I realize things can change...just a first look. I need new glasses. The first time I read this, I was certain you asked about Valentines Day weekend...and I about spit out my dinner lol. i think your 7 day forecast in the morning goes out to monday? |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 3, 2019 20:04:00 GMT -6
The Northern stream is to slow late week.
Need the cold air to come in 6-10 hours faster.
There is potential but the SOUTHERN STREAM really opens up as well.
This is going to limit precious on the backside of the storm.
This is a thread the needle setup
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 3, 2019 20:04:41 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 3, 2019 20:19:23 GMT -6
We need that NAO to go negative or at least neutral otherwise the flow will continue to be quite progressive right? I would rather see the EPO go up a notch or two so the northern stream to be able to dig some more... models show persistent troughing across the SW- if we can get this to work together we may see a couple chances. |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 3, 2019 20:59:59 GMT -6
Ok, so I'd been seeing rumors that ECMWF licensing was becoming less restrictive. As of November 1st, 2019 ECMWF published a new license agreement here. After parsing out the content as best I can, the summary is basically this: Service provider end users (including broadcasters) can transmit derived products like maps, charts, meteograms, etc. (just not the original data sets) on the Internet. To further reinforce this here is the statement from Weathermodels.com's new Terms of Use: I don't use WeatherBell but according to their Twitter account they have updated their Terms of Use accordingly as well. Unfortunately !AccuNotWx! has not updated their Terms of Use yet and they still have the "Redistribution Prohibited" disclaimer about ECMWF products. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 3, 2019 21:55:22 GMT -6
00z GFS still not folding.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 3, 2019 22:06:18 GMT -6
Some of you may have also noticed that Pivotalweather.com has started publishing free 6-hourly Hi-Res ECMWF surface charts. I'm not sure or not if that's related to the recent ECMWF announcement of an expansion to their free model product offerings. Would be nice if we got the 850mb & 500mb charts on the site to go with it, but hey...free is free. In any case, no need for the "how much snow does the Euro show for me" questions. Just check for yourself now! |
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Post by amstilost on Nov 3, 2019 22:10:04 GMT -6
Oh yeah, 10pm and already have 114 hrs on the GFS. But why would a 1041 High moving east across southern MN/northern IA suppress the moisture so far south. Is that not the perfect easterly fetch of cold dry air we would want in this situation??? Is the GFS out to lunch, on crack, starting to become a .98 skill 'go to' model in the 5-6 day range?  |
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Post by amstilost on Nov 3, 2019 22:19:01 GMT -6
Going to Branson next weekend....watch that system that showed up a few days ago on the GFS verify for our drive back on Veteran's Day.
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Post by amstilost on Nov 3, 2019 22:34:48 GMT -6
Then the Veteran's Day system comes screaming south with a little bit weaker High. Seems to me the moisture is too far north at hrs 174 and 180. But, I am no meteorologist, but I might stay at a Holiday Inn this weekend.  |
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