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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 6, 2019 15:32:14 GMT -6
Pretty stout run of the 18z Icon for Monday, especially for the northern counties.
If 2-4 inches of snow were to fall, records could be shattered.
Hopefully, the good trends continue
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 6, 2019 16:21:14 GMT -6
I think we're going to like this winter.
*cue 70s in december*
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 6, 2019 16:21:22 GMT -6
Also worth mentioning a clipper is being shown mid-late week on a lot of runs.
Would be on the edge of a modifying airmass, so have to wonder if the track doesn’t end up further north as we get closer.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 6, 2019 17:05:08 GMT -6
Unsure why Milwaukee didn't re-up their winter weather advisory for secondary band rolling through. Going to be a nasty evening commute up that way.
*Although it IS Wisconsin and temperatures look marginal.*
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Post by snowjunky on Nov 6, 2019 18:24:15 GMT -6
I wasn’t expecting all the fog in the drive home from work. Ugh
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 6, 2019 20:38:48 GMT -6
Wonder where that cold front is.....  |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 6, 2019 21:02:51 GMT -6
Wonder where that cold front is..... Needs to hurry up and get here. Glenn has a forecast High of 37 for tomorrow and the midnight temp will bust that big time if it’s still around 47°F which is looking more likely at the moment. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 6, 2019 21:34:13 GMT -6
00z Icon still brings snow to the area Monday. More the further north you go
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 6, 2019 22:02:48 GMT -6
00z gfs says the southern metro is where to be Monday.
I think we have a watcher with potential for light to moderate impacts.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 6, 2019 22:05:05 GMT -6
00z gfs says the southern metro is where to be Monday. I think we have a watcher with potential for light to moderate impacts. Certainly a watcher considering the cold coming in behind the system. Even a light snow cover could have a big impact on temps |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 6, 2019 22:06:13 GMT -6
Probably get shoved south but who knows.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 6, 2019 22:07:26 GMT -6
Not even looking it's going to rain tonight. It's nowhere near here and moving east, well to the south.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 6, 2019 22:16:30 GMT -6
.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019
The cold front has been moving southward at a good pace this
evening and was evident on radar stretching from near KJEF across
southern Lincoln County to near Taylorville IL. There has been
little to no precipitation with the cold front itself although we
are seening some patchy drizzle along and ahead of the front from
central MO through the St. Louis region into southern/central IL
where low stratus-fog/IFR conditions are present. More continuous
rain and some thunder is confined to the far southern CWA.
Radar trends along with the vast majority of the short term guidance,
CAMS, and new 00z deterministic models keep the threat of measurable
precipitation further south tonight than previously forecast. The
combination of a series of weak disturbances aloft tracking in
the vicinity of the MO/AR border, frontogenesis, and weak isentropic
lift should eventually bring the more continuous precipitation a
bit futher north overnight across southern MO and southern IL but
largely along/south of a Rolla-Belleville-Patoka IL line. The
precipitation also looks to depart sooner on Thursday morning.
Thus despite the expected cold frontal passage and deepening cold
air early Thursday morning, the precipitation may long be over
before cold enough air arrives. Therefore the threat of any snow
or wintry precipitation is less than before, and even should it
occur, it would be brief, light, and should be free of impacts.
We are still on track for a period of quite cold temperatures with
highs on Thursday some 20 to 25 degrees below normal.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 7, 2019 0:24:05 GMT -6
Euro is brewing a nice snowstorm for the area Monday
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 7, 2019 0:24:37 GMT -6
Euro looks solid. Would be a nice 1-3" if manage to get beneficial LSRs
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 7, 2019 0:34:33 GMT -6
Euro looks solid. Would be a nice 1-3" if manage to get beneficial LSRs Kuchera map is printing out 2-4" area wide. Ratios would start off pretty poor but increase steadily as the colder air filters in. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 7, 2019 2:33:12 GMT -6
It would seem the rainfall is further north than almost every model forecast at 00z...with precip well into Jefferson county at 230am. Looking at echo movement on the regional products would indicate it has come about as far north as it is going to come. Therefore... if there is going to be any snow mixing with the rain...it will be southeast of I-44...and just south of the immediate metro. I'd say from Jefferson County MO... east into Monroe...southern St. Clair and Washington Counties in Illinois.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 7, 2019 3:22:19 GMT -6
I'm not completely sold on the idea of accumulating snow for Monday... at least not the "higher" numbers... but certainly some post frontal light, wind driven snow is possible. Ground temps will have warmed after a weekend in the upper 50s. That...along with gusty winds...and fairly light nature of the snow make me skeptical that much will accumulate. Still... I could see maybe a 1" to possibly 2" snowfall Monday. The fact that the GFS and Euro are producing snow and snow cover is clearly affecting the temperatures...so if we don't have snow on the ground...reaching the rather extreme cold shown on the models may be tough. That is not to discount how anomalously cold the air mass will be...still potentially record-breaking...but maybe not as extreme as currently modeled. Now if we get the 1-2 inches of snow... THEN those numbers (if not colder) should be reachable.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 7, 2019 7:52:41 GMT -6
Looks like the moisture is just about 50-60 miles too far south today. dang
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Nov 7, 2019 7:59:25 GMT -6
Someone Please post the rules for snowfall. It's only Thursday.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 7, 2019 8:08:56 GMT -6
Are you referring to the posting of snowfall maps? Rule 5 just says refrain from the posting of snowfall maps beyond day 3, and alk ive seen is just reports describing kuchera method, and other model ideas.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 7, 2019 9:12:10 GMT -6
People can describe a map and what it shows all they want.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 7, 2019 9:30:57 GMT -6
12z Icon looks solid for Monday.
Could be a narrow Fgen band of heavy snow even.
Hopefully the euro has it at 12z.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 7, 2019 9:57:30 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is back to suppression city for Monday
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 7, 2019 9:57:59 GMT -6
GFS is gonna suck for Monday.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 7, 2019 10:04:24 GMT -6
Good news is the GFS only has support from the GEM. I'd rather have the Euro on our side...I think.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 7, 2019 10:28:07 GMT -6
Germany/Europe vs Canada/US
I'm taking all bets.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 7, 2019 10:30:27 GMT -6
mid and upper level moisture is there on the GFS... It's all a matter of saturating 850mb and down... and it's close.
*and it even has decent upper level support with a 140kt jet streak screaming over northern IL
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 7, 2019 10:33:31 GMT -6
Germany/Europe vs Canada/US I'm taking all bets. Germany/Euro -200 US/Can +175 |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 7, 2019 10:52:41 GMT -6
GEFS is supporting the idea of snow as well.
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