Chris's Corner - The Summer Vacation Edition

...Mid MS Valley into the OH and TN Valley...
There is a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall across portions of
eastern MO, western IL, and western KY today into tonight. As of
08z we have a small scale MCV over west central IL...and a broader
mid/upper level wave situated over central MO. Mid level WV
imagery depicts a nice layer of drying over east central MO,
likely indicative of the edge of increased forcing. Current
convection has generally been occurring along a low level axis of
speed convergence over western IL. Through the morning hours we
should see redevelopment back a bit further west...generally
aligned with the eastern edge of the mid level drying seen on WV.
Instability is pretty steadily increasing into this corridor...so
likely only a matter of time before we see development back a bit
further west over eastern MO. As convection expands the
environment will favor backbuilding/training...and thus areas of
significant rainfall appear likely.

The overall setup remains favorable straight into tonight...and
thus this may end up being a prolonged event, capable of producing
locally extreme rainfall totals. We probably will not see the
event be constant straight though the night...as convection will
likely eventually propagate and/or weaken over any one location.
However by tonight the low level convergence increases yet again,
with a continued supply of upstream instability advecting into the
region. Thus even if there is a break...another round of
training/backbuilding is certainly possible this evening into the
overnight...quite possibly impacting the same areas as this
mornings activity. So all in all, would say confidence is pretty
good that a significant event will end up unfolding...with
numerous instances of flash flooding, some of which could be
significant.