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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 10, 2020 16:49:20 GMT -6
Is TS Faye going to block up and bog down the system movements or is it going to get out of the way quickly enough that it shouldn't cause any problems?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 10, 2020 17:11:33 GMT -6
Let’s hope the 15z RAP is right. It is very wet across the area tomorrow afternoon/evening I was just looking at that...like STG said, the setup tomorrow looks to support a derecho/MCS across the region in the active NW flow. The EURO looks like it wants to turn it S/SW across MO towards the reservoir of high CAPE...but I suspect with the stronger forcing and divergence aloft displaced substantially further N/NE that it has a good chance of tracking SE through our area. If enough instability is realized, there should be a decent threat for severe wind and possibly a few tornadoes with plenty of shear. Ya there's a lot of disagreement in model land what happens tomorrow. 21z RAP has a big MCS coming through here at peak heating while the 18z NAM is completely dry. Hi-res NAM has an MCS though |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 10, 2020 18:04:45 GMT -6
I would have warned that from the inflow notch alone...the velocities were definitely corrupted for whatever reason. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 10, 2020 18:57:36 GMT -6
Alamosa CO had a record low of 37 this morning. Alamosa co had a record hi of 92 this afternoon.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 10, 2020 19:52:37 GMT -6
00z HRRR is aboard the MCS train
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 10, 2020 20:55:38 GMT -6
looks like that stuff in NE is gonna stay pretty far west
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jul 11, 2020 5:28:35 GMT -6
Waning moon still pretty bright. At 4 a.m. couldn't see comet with naked eye, located with binos. Between 4:15 & 4:30 could see with naked eye, by 4:45 it was too light on the horizon.   |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 11, 2020 6:35:12 GMT -6
Alamosa CO had a record low of 37 this morning. Alamosa co had a record hi of 92 this afternoon. That's pretty wild ...has to be some downslope/kadiabatic effect going on there. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 11, 2020 6:39:56 GMT -6
looks like that stuff in NE is gonna stay pretty far west Or wash out completely |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 11, 2020 6:47:24 GMT -6
It looks like models generally want to develop two MCSs...one to the W/SW towards the reservoir of high CAPE airmass, and another across IL associated with the stronger upper divergence and forcing. The question is whether the easternmost complex can turn S quickly enough to hit the area...that's a tough call. We could get the old STL split if it doesn't...leaving a chance for a few spotty storms like DMs forecast.
These NW flow events can really throw models for a loop so it's hard to say for sure what will happen.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 11, 2020 7:11:33 GMT -6
Heat wave might be on hold for next week. Interesting.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 11, 2020 7:45:45 GMT -6
Heat wave might be on hold for next week. Interesting. Yea, gfs brings the boundary across the area keeping temps in check and adding some rain chances. Models have been broadcasting these heat waves in the long range all summer only to back down as we get closer. It’s a lot like in the winter with cold snaps. The models must have a pretty strong emphasis on climatology. |
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on Jul 11, 2020 8:01:54 GMT -6
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Post by mosue56 on Jul 11, 2020 8:27:38 GMT -6
That hold off would please me to no end!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 11, 2020 9:23:35 GMT -6
Remains to be seen how today evolves but the environment is ripe for wind driven MCS’s 12z NAM derecho composite today  |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jul 11, 2020 11:04:32 GMT -6
Heat wave might be on hold for next week. Interesting. Don’t get my hopes up please |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 11, 2020 11:46:00 GMT -6
MCS forecasting is so much fun  I was a little suprised that last night's MCS didn't survive a little longer... but then again...I also was not. Im not all suprised by the lack of activity right now...as I was expecthing the area to be dry today anyway. My thoughts for the rest of the day are that the greatest focus for severe will be split today... one axis running out of eadtern KS into western MO... the other sliding mostly southeast through central IL. I expect the two to be connected by a rather narrow...probably broken...line of rather fast moving storms...and thats what I expect around here by this evening. Given instability and mid-level lapse rates and adequate shear... damaging winds and hail will be my chief concerns. However, I am not totally dismissing a rogue tornado in this pattern either. |
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Post by RyanD on Jul 11, 2020 12:42:15 GMT -6
Waning moon still pretty bright. At 4 a.m. couldn't see comet with naked eye, located with binos. Between 4:15 & 4:30 could see with naked eye, by 4:45 it was too light on the horizon. That is so awesome!! I am going to start to look for it in the evening sky next week and hope I can get a picture of it through my telescope. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 11, 2020 12:45:53 GMT -6
I’m betting we see a watch here this evening
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 11, 2020 13:09:53 GMT -6
I’m betting we see a watch here this evening Been a while... |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 11, 2020 13:22:10 GMT -6
I'll be on the watch for a watch.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 11, 2020 13:23:42 GMT -6
Not overachieving today I think. 96 at 2 at Lambert.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 11, 2020 14:10:22 GMT -6
Not overachieving today I think. 96 at 2 at Lambert. With the overnight MCS failing to reach central or western MO... and without the resulting clouds... there has been nothing to slow down the warm-up. Where the atmosphere has been able to more deeply mix... Tds are dropping and temps are rising. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 11, 2020 14:10:54 GMT -6
It’s hot. Please rain.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 11, 2020 14:12:27 GMT -6
Not overachieving today I think. 96 at 2 at Lambert. With the overnight MCS failing to reach central or western MO... and without the resulting clouds... there has been nothing to slow down the warm-up. Where the atmosphere has been able to more deeply mix... Tds are dropping and temps are rising. You can see where Tds have dropped into the low/mid 60s... the temps are several degrees warmer. |
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Post by jeepers on Jul 11, 2020 14:45:31 GMT -6
95 degrees
I'll take a basement drill over this.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 11, 2020 15:13:37 GMT -6
NWS St. Louis posted 97 degrees at St. Louis Lambert.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 11, 2020 15:39:33 GMT -6
I’d figure that stuff in Iowa would slide right down the river this evening. Short term models have it either falling apart or going east of here
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 11, 2020 16:33:04 GMT -6
I’d figure that stuff in Iowa would slide right down the river this evening. Short term models have it either falling apart or going east of here You'd think it would with the core of the instability to the SW and thickness supports a S/SE turn. But those storms across IL and IN are on a string...almost like there's a stationary boundary out there. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 11, 2020 19:48:44 GMT -6
I'd say a quiet night is on tap. Looks like we stay dry. Which means I get to go another couple days before I have to mow again.
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