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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 14, 2020 8:58:38 GMT -6
I'm in a moderate risk of meh.
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 14, 2020 9:40:59 GMT -6
Many of the CAMs have a sup or two in the vicinity Wednesday. That experimental convection allowing FV3 on PivotalWeather which I know nothing about is going absolutely apesh!t though with several training line embedded and semi-discrete supercells ending with multiple inches of rain. I'd say that's a bit overdone...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 14, 2020 10:23:49 GMT -6
RAP likes to run a little hot but the 15z run has abundant convection around the area tomorrow evening with high supercell composite values
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 14, 2020 11:20:06 GMT -6
Tomorrow is looking somewhat interesting. Compact shortwave moving through in the afternoon. Lapse rates aren't that great, but low to mid-70 dewpoints should contribute to plenty of uncapped surface based instability. A synoptic theta-e and/or remnant outflow boundary possibly around. Maybe 30-35kts of bulk shear. Seems like a decent recipe for some organized severe weather. So what will be the mitigating factor be this time...it'll be something I'm sure.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 14, 2020 12:09:55 GMT -6
SPC updated Day 2 discussion
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 14, 2020 13:45:53 GMT -6
Speaking of coming in hot, check out the UD helicity tracks from the 18z HRRR tomorrow  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 14, 2020 14:40:23 GMT -6
Tomorrow is looking somewhat interesting. Compact shortwave moving through in the afternoon. Lapse rates aren't that great, but low to mid-70 dewpoints should contribute to plenty of uncapped surface based instability. A synoptic theta-e and/or remnant outflow boundary possibly around. Maybe 30-35kts of bulk shear. Seems like a decent recipe for some organized severe weather. So what will be the mitigating factor be this time...it'll be something I'm sure. Yes it does...that sounding is rather eye popping for this time of year, IMO. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 14, 2020 15:03:14 GMT -6
The high PWs itself shows potential for water loading and wet downbursts
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 14, 2020 15:38:06 GMT -6
The high PWs itself shows potential for water loading and wet downbursts Yeah wind looks to be the main threat with any storms and hail with the supercells. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 14, 2020 15:42:02 GMT -6
Might see an enhanced risk tomorrow if we can nail down the certainty and likely location of storms.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 14, 2020 16:07:44 GMT -6
Enhanced risk is the kiss of death for severe weather around here
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 14, 2020 19:55:19 GMT -6
Thinking enhanced risk is looking probable.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 14, 2020 20:23:27 GMT -6
Nasty hodograph on the 3km NAM  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 14, 2020 20:47:06 GMT -6
Even if we don't get much discrete activity tomorrow, I could see several tornado reports around the area from QLCS spin-ups
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 14, 2020 20:59:36 GMT -6
Last post for the night I promise This sounding near Salem, IL tomorrow is insane....and in mid July no less  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 14, 2020 22:38:27 GMT -6
When is a good time to see the comet?? I haven't been able to find it yet?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 14, 2020 22:47:40 GMT -6
From a synoptical standpoint, tomorrow is looking like one of the most potent looking setups I've seen during this time of summer...but there's some disagreement with timing of the shortwave being favorable here and the amount of destabilization with potential for cloudy skies and debris. The compact low really wraps up as it lifts NE and rapidly tightens the wind field during the afternoon and evening...and the upper support is superb with RER jet dynamics and strong DPVA. I think the biggest limiting factor to significant severe potential is going to be the water loaded column and fairly weak lapse rates looking at soundings...but if we can get some mid-level drying and strong surface heating going, that could be a game changer. This has potential to be a pretty nasty outbreak if things come together and it bears close watching as there could be strong tornado potential if discrete supercells can be maintained. But I tend to agree with 920...I think this most likely favors QLCS development with embedded mesocyclones/vortices.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 14, 2020 23:27:03 GMT -6
From a synoptical standpoint, tomorrow is looking like one of the most potent looking setups I've seen during this time of summer...but there's some disagreement with timing of the shortwave being favorable here and the amount of destabilization with potential for cloudy skies and debris. The compact low really wraps up as it lifts NE and rapidly tightens the wind field during the afternoon and evening...and the upper support is superb with RER jet dynamics and strong DPVA. I think the biggest limiting factor to significant severe potential is going to be the water loaded column and fairly weak lapse rates looking at soundings...but if we can get some mid-level drying and strong surface heating going, that could be a game changer. This has potential to be a pretty nasty outbreak if things come together and it bears close watching as there could be strong tornado potential if discrete supercells can be maintained. But I tend to agree with 920...I think this most likely favors QLCS development with embedded mesocyclones/vortices. Aren't we coming up on the anniversary of the big STL derecho in 2006. I believe it was like the 18 or 19 of July. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 15, 2020 4:31:07 GMT -6
July 19, 2006 www.weather.gov/media/lsx/Events/07_19_2006.pdfAs for today... it is a highly complex and unusual set-up for this time of year. Lots of questions about the location of both the MCV and the effective boundary... but based on where we stand right now... it sure looks like the SPC outlook is pretty well placed. It may need a nudge to the southeast...but overall I like it. No doubt the wind fields.... when combined with the degree of destabilization are eye catching...if we can actually destabilize that much (good point Brtn) But, even if we come up a little short of the model forecast CAPE values, there is more than enough there to be concerned. Semi-discrete HP supercells will quickly evolve into QLCS type structures. The wind potnetial in the wet downbursts could get naaasty... I'm going 60 to 80 mph winds in the top gusts... along with golfball sized hail and the potential for a few tornadoes. It's going to be a rough afternoon and evening. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 15, 2020 5:23:18 GMT -6
From a synoptical standpoint, tomorrow is looking like one of the most potent looking setups I've seen during this time of summer...but there's some disagreement with timing of the shortwave being favorable here and the amount of destabilization with potential for cloudy skies and debris. The compact low really wraps up as it lifts NE and rapidly tightens the wind field during the afternoon and evening...and the upper support is superb with RER jet dynamics and strong DPVA. I think the biggest limiting factor to significant severe potential is going to be the water loaded column and fairly weak lapse rates looking at soundings...but if we can get some mid-level drying and strong surface heating going, that could be a game changer. This has potential to be a pretty nasty outbreak if things come together and it bears close watching as there could be strong tornado potential if discrete supercells can be maintained. But I tend to agree with 920...I think this most likely favors QLCS development with embedded mesocyclones/vortices. Aren't we coming up on the anniversary of the big STL derecho in 2006. I believe it was like the 18 or 19 of July. Yes...7/19/06...but that event was strongly tied to extreme instability and cold pooling whereas this is more of a typical spring time setup with a summer airmass which is why I'm concerned about sig severe potential. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 15, 2020 5:27:46 GMT -6
Aren't we coming up on the anniversary of the big STL derecho in 2006. I believe it was like the 18 or 19 of July. Yes...7/19/06...but that event was strongly tied to extreme instability and cold pooling whereas this is more of a typical spring time setup with a summer airmass which is why I'm concerned about sig severe potential. Correct. There is a substantial amount of dynamics available today which is very unusual for this time of year. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 15, 2020 6:01:02 GMT -6
Wont all the convective cloud cover keep severe threat very low
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 15, 2020 6:17:11 GMT -6
Wont all the convective cloud cover keep severe threat very low Rising dew points alone will be enough to generate sufficient instability. Any sun we add to that will simply increase the reservoir of instability. |
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Post by REB on Jul 15, 2020 7:18:59 GMT -6
Bad timing. A large landscaping project on a steep hill starts today. Fingers crossed .
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 15, 2020 8:21:27 GMT -6
Paducah NWS is rather concerned with flooding later tonight. That certainly seems possible as the boundary stalls out following the initial line of storms. Could be some stalled/training storms in places.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 15, 2020 9:02:05 GMT -6
Sun breaking through here now
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 15, 2020 9:08:02 GMT -6
RAP and even HRRR definitely have that supercell look across the metro this afternoon/evening.
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Post by scmhack on Jul 15, 2020 9:18:58 GMT -6
RAP and even HRRR definitely have that supercell look across the metro this afternoon/evening. I just need 3-345 to make it from TGS for work to cave springs/70 |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 15, 2020 9:22:05 GMT -6
Vis sat shows at least broken/filtered sunshine developing to our S/SW in the wake of the lead shortwave lifting NE into N/central IL. This is going to be fuel on the fire as Chris said...the convective debris lifting out is favorable for rapid destabilization as the airmass has not been turned over by morning precip.
The Larko's triangle setup with strongly backed surface winds and quickly veering winds with height is concerning given the amount of destabilization. If low-level lapse rates can steepen with pockets of stronger surface heating, there is potential for a couple strong tornadoes today, especially with sustained, discrete supercells...and I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to MOD risk because of that.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 15, 2020 9:33:27 GMT -6
HRRR has temps approaching 100* as the storms move in. That's very likely overdone. I was just thinking about a possible MOD risk to BRTN. This setup certainly checks off alot of the boxes.
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