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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 15, 2020 9:37:38 GMT -6
HRRR has temps approaching 100* as the storms move in. That's very likely overdone. I was just thinking about a possible MOD risk to BRTN. This setup certainly checks off alot of the boxes. The HRRR definitely tends to over cook surface temps...but yeah, this setup has potential to get nasty real quick. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 15, 2020 9:59:59 GMT -6
Vis sat shows at least broken/filtered sunshine developing to our S/SW in the wake of the lead shortwave lifting NE into N/central IL. This is going to be fuel on the fire as Chris said...the convective debris lifting out is favorable for rapid destabilization as the airmass has not been turned over by morning precip. The Larko's triangle setup with strongly backed surface winds and quickly veering winds with height is concerning given the amount of destabilization. If low-level lapse rates can steepen with pockets of stronger surface heating, there is potential for a couple strong tornadoes today, especially with sustained, discrete supercells...and I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to MOD risk because of that. With the degree of clearing that is now underway along and South of I70 agree… a small moderate risk may be on the way. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 15, 2020 10:08:00 GMT -6
My biggest concern overall is that timing of the MCV/shortwave is looking nearly ideal and convective debris has cleared out...the combination of both rarely happens here...and the prime zone of destabilization is setting up across SE MO right up into the metro along and S of the outflow/pseudo-warm front where helicity will be maximized.
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Post by scmhack on Jul 15, 2020 10:38:01 GMT -6
So we're looking at a 5pm start for STC or earlier?
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 15, 2020 10:51:07 GMT -6
The 1630Z SPC update seems to be very late.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 15, 2020 10:53:03 GMT -6
The 1630Z SPC update seems to be very late. Not much change... EDIT: The SPC Outlooks looks like it updated 6 or 7 minutes ago but the wording and the image didnt change.
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 15, 2020 10:55:05 GMT -6
The 1630Z SPC update seems to be very late. Not much change... Don't know, it's 25 minutes overdue at this point. Or at least I'm not seeing it posted on their website, which is often slow to update though... |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 15, 2020 10:57:33 GMT -6
i noticed they've been pretty late the last few days
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 15, 2020 11:01:43 GMT -6
Here’s the updated text. No Moderate
SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts
of the mid Mississippi Valley, with damaging wind, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes possible. Other severe storms are expected
across the south-central High Plains this afternoon and evening.
...Midwest including Missouri/Illinois...
A readily apparent MCV near the Kansas City area at late morning
will continue generally eastward toward southern Illinois by this
evening. Preceding convection to its east/northeast continues to
effectively reinforce a cold pool/front that will demarcate the
latitudinal extent of the primary severe risk especially across
Missouri, with warm sector dewpoints otherwise ranging from the
middle/upper 60s F in central Illinois to lower/mid 70s across
central/eastern Missouri. As cloud cover continues to thin/disperse
across the warm sector, a corridor of strong destabilization (MLCAPE
of 2500-3500 J/kg) is expected this afternoon near/south of the
outflow from south-central Missouri toward the greater Saint Louis
area/southwest Illinois.
Thunderstorm development/intensification is still expected by around
mid-afternoon, initially across central/east-central Missouri toward
far western Illinois. Strong mid-level winds are associated with the
MCV (reference regional WSR-88D VWP data) and some enhancement of
low-level winds also exists along the southeast flank of the MCV.
This will contribute to an environment supportive of initial
supercells, and a gradual evolution of another larger storm cluster
from eastern Missouri into Illinois later this afternoon and
evening. The potential will exist for damaging winds and a couple of
tornadoes. Although mid-level lapse rates are not steep, some severe
hail may occur as well, mainly with the initial supercell modes.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 15, 2020 11:54:25 GMT -6
It "feels" like one of those May severe days outside, just 20 degrees warmer.
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Post by yypc on Jul 15, 2020 12:01:18 GMT -6
What a strange year where our best setup for severe weather comes in the middle of July
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 15, 2020 12:01:23 GMT -6
With all due respect, I've noticed SPC sometimes underestimates QLCS events when it comes to tornado threat...just an observation.
Let's see how things unfold...it's definitely a ripe setup today.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jul 15, 2020 12:02:10 GMT -6
It "feels" like one of those May severe days outside, just 20 degrees warmer. Let the dogs out and had the same thought |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 15, 2020 12:09:26 GMT -6
Lots on blue skies moving in here. Sun out brightly now. Hot. Muggy. Gross.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 15, 2020 12:16:12 GMT -6
Watch inbound  |
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 15, 2020 12:18:59 GMT -6
Sounds like from the MCD that'll be a Tornado watch...but ya never know.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 15, 2020 12:22:43 GMT -6
I’d be pretty shocked if it wasn’t a tornado watch
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 15, 2020 12:56:40 GMT -6
Td 78°
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 15, 2020 12:59:17 GMT -6
Just hit 91 degrees here.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 15, 2020 12:59:47 GMT -6
Would expect a watch any minute now, storms starting to fire in central MO.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 15, 2020 13:06:11 GMT -6
Confirmed tornado with the cell south of Peoria
Sunny skies taking over in Arnold
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 15, 2020 13:06:15 GMT -6
Got a DP of 77* and the weather thing says its 92*. Yum.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 15, 2020 13:07:01 GMT -6
Would expect a watch any minute now, storms starting to fire in central MO. Ya I was wondering the same thing...when they going to hit the button. Lol |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 15, 2020 13:08:23 GMT -6
Would expect a watch any minute now, storms starting to fire in central MO. Ya I was wondering the same thing...when they going to hit the button. Lol And there it is! Lol |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 15, 2020 13:11:35 GMT -6
Violent Tornado Parameter is rapidly increasing up 44 into the metro  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 15, 2020 13:11:38 GMT -6
All the cells that have just popped in MO already have the look of premature rotating supercells, bending back with mid level rotation.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jul 15, 2020 13:29:51 GMT -6
storm near hermann starting to show some broad rotation
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 15, 2020 13:41:37 GMT -6
storm near hermann starting to show some broad rotation Sure is...has for a little while now. The Osage Beach cell is clearing rotating aloft as well. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 15, 2020 13:52:21 GMT -6
LSX VWP showing 3km SRH of 270 m2/s2. So these storms should continue to mature and rotate. Not a lot of 1km SRH though so that may limit low level mesocyclones and tornadogenesis a little.
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Post by yypc on Jul 15, 2020 13:58:10 GMT -6
A cell is blowing up right in stl county
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