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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 25, 2020 14:52:35 GMT -6
Looks like the NAM dries the system out far too quickly. It is a small storm but one would think that if it can reach major hurricane strength or even close it should last a bit longer than the NAM shows. Something more like the EURO or UKMET for example.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 25, 2020 14:54:58 GMT -6
Wonder if all that smoke has something to do with it? Especially as to why the northern half of the storm is drier/compressed than the southern half.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 25, 2020 15:01:19 GMT -6
NHC is shifting the track a bit farther north and west for the 4PM advisory. Still south of us but close enough to give most areas south of I-70 a taste of the remnant system.
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Aug 25, 2020 15:21:26 GMT -6
Huh?  Doesn't show that in it's 30 day month by month data/forecast. Obviously that goes by something else. Either way unless you can find a 100 degree reading from the last 2-3 summers triple digits have been getting rarer.  |
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Post by yypc on Aug 25, 2020 15:40:33 GMT -6
I will take 100-110 with a sub 60 dewpoint any day over 92-97 with a 70-80 degree dewpoint like we have seen for much of the summer.
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 25, 2020 16:50:33 GMT -6
Trying to wrap around  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 25, 2020 17:12:14 GMT -6
Yeah, it sure is. The CDO is getting that striated/gravity wave look to it as well which is a tell tale sign of intensification. I think it's about to go boom...it should rapidly deepen once a closed eyewall develops and it pulls the winds in.
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 25, 2020 18:11:08 GMT -6
7mb drop the last 3 hours
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 25, 2020 19:31:07 GMT -6
She’s gettin’ bigger. Once that eye opens up it’s game on.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 25, 2020 19:33:53 GMT -6
Farmer's Almanac (Not to be confused with the 'Old Farmer's Almanac', has come out with their winter forecast, and it has us between cold with above average snow, and Cold/Very Flaky. So basically cold and snowy for St. Louis though does hint we're in the wild=card region which could go either way between chilly and wet and cold with snow. The other almanac said the oppose I believe. It looks like one of them could be right and the other wrong. Least unlike the last few years both almanacs have a different forecast.
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 25, 2020 22:34:28 GMT -6
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Aug 26, 2020 0:02:44 GMT -6
Cat 2 with 105 mph winds... pressure down to 978
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 26, 2020 3:04:33 GMT -6
110 mph and expected to go to cat 4 130 now.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2020 4:07:14 GMT -6
She is quickly turning into a beast!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2020 4:11:54 GMT -6
Ok... I cannot be the only one who sees a face in that satellite image? I actually see two eyes, a nose, a mouth, etc. I know this is a super serious storm... but that really caught my eye at oh-dark-30 when I woke up!  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2020 4:15:05 GMT -6
She is quickly turning into a beast! Well defined eyewall now on satellite...still a bit ragged but tightening up quickly. This is a bad situation for the upper TX and LA coastline...surge is going to be extreme in the low lying areas that got leveled by Ike in 2008. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2020 4:16:36 GMT -6
Looks like a chimpanzee, Chris.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2020 4:30:46 GMT -6
Looks like a chimpanzee, Chris. YES... that's it! What does this say about my lack of sleep on this shift? I truly do see things in the clouds. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 26, 2020 4:33:06 GMT -6
I was thinking A clown with a big nose.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2020 4:35:04 GMT -6
Yeah, that eye is clearing out and tightening up RAPIDLY. It is pretty stunning how quickly this is all coming together now. I'm not sure there will be much time for it to weaken much after it peaks just before landfall. I think we may see at Cat 4 still and landfall.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2020 4:35:23 GMT -6
I was thinking A clown with a big nose. That works too. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2020 5:11:03 GMT -6
Yeah, that eye is clearing out and tightening up RAPIDLY. It is pretty stunning how quickly this is all coming together now. I'm not sure there will be much time for it to weaken much after it peaks just before landfall. I think we may see at Cat 4 still and landfall. That's what I'm afraid of...the swift forward motion probably isn't going to give enough time for the increasing shear to do it's thing. Outside of an ERC, this thing should be pretty full bore as it approaches the coastline. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2020 5:14:33 GMT -6
wow... NOAA hurricane hunter reported a pressure of 953mb. I'm trying to pin down if that was a reliable reading.
If true, that is a drop of 10-15mb...in just a couple of hours!
Latest USAFR report showed 961... not as low... but still a substantial drop of 10mb+ in the last couple of hours.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2020 5:52:59 GMT -6
And now she's a Cat 3.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2020 5:58:29 GMT -6
wow... NOAA hurricane hunter reported a pressure of 953mb. I'm trying to pin down if that was a reliable reading. If true, that is a drop of 10-15mb...in just a couple of hours! Latest USAFR report showed 961... not as low... but still a substantial drop of 10mb+ in the last couple of hours. Yikes |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 26, 2020 6:27:46 GMT -6
Looks like she is going through an eyewall replacement cycle of some sort. Still trying to maintain that compact consistent clear eye. She sure is impressive though and I wouldn't be surprised to see it take another major drop in pressure before landfall.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 26, 2020 6:52:15 GMT -6
Ok... I cannot be the only one who sees a face in that satellite image? I actually see two eyes, a nose, a mouth, etc. I know this is a super serious storm... but that really caught my eye at oh-dark-30 when I woke up! I'm reminded of Redi Kilowatt. Anyone remember him? |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Aug 26, 2020 6:52:29 GMT -6
I know it's not for the coast, but the hubs is currently in Little Rock. I already told him to prepare for a boatload of rain, but if this thing hits the coast as a cat 4, would there be an increased risk of high winds/tornadoes?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 26, 2020 6:57:47 GMT -6
I know it's not for the coast, but the hubs is currently in Little Rock. I already told him to prepare for a boatload of rain, but if this thing hits the coast as a cat 4, would there be an increased risk of high winds/tornadoes? I wouldn't say there's a correlation in that sense. In fact, the weaker hurricanes and tropical storms seem to produce more tornadoes. Probably due to the energy being focused much more on the core of the storm and not as spread out. Having said that, Laura is quite a large storm with a pretty big wind field. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2020 7:04:29 GMT -6
I know it's not for the coast, but the hubs is currently in Little Rock. I already told him to prepare for a boatload of rain, but if this thing hits the coast as a cat 4, would there be an increased risk of high winds/tornadoes? Wind for sure... 40 to 60 mph gusts at least I would think. Tornadoes may be more of an issue over eastern Arkansas I would think. |
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