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Post by dschreib on Aug 26, 2020 7:25:29 GMT -6
Is anyone else having problems with the CIMSS site?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2020 7:41:46 GMT -6
They appears to be clearing out from top to bottom on the last 20 minutes of visible satellite!
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 26, 2020 7:45:43 GMT -6
Is anyone else having problems with the CIMSS site? Yeah, not working. Add that to my list of go to sites having issues recently. |
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 26, 2020 7:56:39 GMT -6
Looks like recon on last eye pass got a valid 105kt (120mph) surface wind measurement.
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 26, 2020 8:01:42 GMT -6
Definitely additional clearing of the eye going on now. Outflow looks beautiful.
Not good when rapid intensification occurs in the end game.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 26, 2020 8:16:35 GMT -6
Eye is really becoming visible now  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 26, 2020 8:25:36 GMT -6
Eye is really becoming visible now What app is this? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2020 8:25:57 GMT -6
There was a pretty good wobble north earlier this morning but has since resumed a more NW track. It looks like landfall will be somewhere between Port Arthur and Lake Charles unless there's a substantial turn towards the west. But that doesn't mean HOU and GLS are out of the woods...not by a long shot.
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 26, 2020 8:33:54 GMT -6
Depending on exact landfall probably going to be massive storm surge in the Holly Beach, LA area. Hope no one sticking around there, may be unsurvivable in lower and less well built structures. Could be major life threatening surge/flooding issues in Lake Charles as well according to NHC inundation maps.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2020 8:37:09 GMT -6
There was a pretty good wobble north earlier this morning but has since resumed a more NW track. It looks like landfall will be somewhere between Port Arthur and Lake Charles unless there's a substantial turn towards the west. But that doesn't mean HOU and GLS are out of the woods...not by a long shot. No doubt. Big wobbles can occur during a RIC and that may be just enough to push it west. Either way... there is zero doubt that this will be a devastating blow to Beaumont, Port Arthur and Lake Charles areas. 10-15 foot surge will go WAAAAAAAY inland. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 26, 2020 8:42:19 GMT -6
Eye is really becoming visible now What app is this? Radar Omega. Reed finally got me to try it out after promoting it for so along. It’s definitely not as polished of an app as RadarScope but the amount of data and customization it has is really cool. I think if you want to view satellite data you need to have a subscription |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 26, 2020 9:06:40 GMT -6
There was a pretty good wobble north earlier this morning but has since resumed a more NW track. It looks like landfall will be somewhere between Port Arthur and Lake Charles unless there's a substantial turn towards the west. But that doesn't mean HOU and GLS are out of the woods...not by a long shot. No doubt. Big wobbles can occur during a RIC and that may be just enough to push it west. Either way... there is zero doubt that this will be a devastating blow to Beaumont, Port Arthur and Lake Charles areas. 10-15 foot surge will go WAAAAAAAY inland. That area borders on being submerged even dry times. A 10 foot surge will put everything under water. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 26, 2020 9:08:30 GMT -6
Down to 956mb and max sustained winds of 125mph
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 26, 2020 9:10:50 GMT -6
Forecast of 145mph just before landfall now. With large storm size and new intensity forecast NHC now forecasting max surge of 20ft.
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 26, 2020 9:15:17 GMT -6
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Post by cardsnweather on Aug 26, 2020 9:15:58 GMT -6
Could hi-res nam be onto something with these pressure drops?? I know it's not going to go sub 9 but wow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2020 9:16:18 GMT -6
Forecast of 145mph just before landfall now. With large storm size and new intensity forecast NHC now forecasting max surge of 20ft. Amazing how quickly this storm expanded...it looked like it doubled in size on satellite within hours. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 26, 2020 9:17:19 GMT -6
HWRF model deserves a round of applause. It was all over the intensity of this thing for days
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 26, 2020 9:22:38 GMT -6
Could hi-res nam be onto something with these pressure drops?? I know it's not going to go sub 9 but wow. 3kNAM doesn't model ocean upwelling. More importantly, my understanding is that in its last update a parameterization switch that turns off ocean latent heat flux in high humidity surface conditions was disabled. As a result it suffers from unrealistic runaway latent heat flux. I think Laura will level off at some point here. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Aug 26, 2020 9:22:42 GMT -6
HRRR shows minimal weakening hours after it hits shore.
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 26, 2020 9:24:11 GMT -6
HWRF model deserves a round of applause. It was all over the intensity of this thing for days IIRC it was one of the few that handled the rapid intensification of Hanna to a C1 just before landfall. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 26, 2020 9:24:24 GMT -6
Yikes...Laura doing her best impression of Michael from 2018.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2020 9:25:05 GMT -6
HWRF model deserves a round of applause. It was all over the intensity of this thing for days Don't forget the GEM...although they were too far right with the track, they were in lock step with this becoming a strong hurricane while the EURO was showing it in the 990s or over 1000mb. The other globals did better with the track...but not the intensity. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 26, 2020 9:30:53 GMT -6
The problem at this stage is just like Michael in 2018, Charley in 2004, etc. you have a rapidly strengthening storm at exactly the wrong time. It doesn’t have time to go through the weakening that these things typically do after they hit their peak.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 26, 2020 9:34:26 GMT -6
Laura is starting to get that “look” that very strong cyclones have. A large eye is forming with the convention becoming symmetrical around the eye
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 26, 2020 9:43:56 GMT -6
Laura is starting to get that “look” that very strong cyclones have. A large eye is forming with the convention becoming symmetrical around the eye Yea, that huge eye has that Katrina/almost Hugo look. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2020 9:48:02 GMT -6
Look like the Nexus in star trek. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2020 9:51:15 GMT -6
The problem at this stage is just like Michael in 2018, Charley in 2004, etc. you have a rapidly strengthening storm at exactly the wrong time. It doesn’t have time to go through the weakening that these things typically do after they hit their peak. The thing with Charlie is that it was MUCH smaller storm and as such was more prone to rapid intensification... and rapid weakening. Laura is a large storm... it will not weaken fast... if at all.. until after landfall. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 26, 2020 10:01:55 GMT -6
The problem at this stage is just like Michael in 2018, Charley in 2004, etc. you have a rapidly strengthening storm at exactly the wrong time. It doesn’t have time to go through the weakening that these things typically do after they hit their peak. The thing with Charlie is that it was MUCH smaller storm and as such was more prone to rapid intensification... and rapid weakening. Laura is a large storm... it will not weaken fast... if at all.. until after landfall. Yea, Charley was tiny but that eyewall was crazy intense where it hit. Still one of the best eyewall videos on Youtube. Laura is much more comparable to Michael at this point, though it *shouldn't* be able to attain quite that amount of wind speed, but it might get close. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 26, 2020 10:26:32 GMT -6
Laura is also coming in at or near high tide...not great.
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